Performance Journal

• Filed: 2026-06-15 pre-market
• Briefing event risk confirmed: MEDIUM
• Today's session call: SPY only — possible setup if SPY tests prior session high intraday with ADX in band. QQQ: no setup (prior high already blown through pre-market). Outlook: unlikely.

• QQQ prior close: 721.34. Prior session high: unknown but likely in the ~722–726 range.
• Implied QQQ open: ~736 — which is well above the estimated prior session high.
• SPY prior close: 741.75. Prior session high: likely ~742–748. Implied SPY open: ~743.42.
• SPY is the more interesting instrument today: the +0.09% gap means SPY opens very close to its prior close, and the prior session high is very close to or slightly above the opening price.

1. SPY prior session high level (exact price): Identify yesterday's SPY session high (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET). Mark it on the 5-minute chart. If SPY opens below it (which it likely does at 743 vs. a possible prior high of 745–748), watch for a run up to and through that level between 9:30 AM and noon. If RSI(2) > 88 at the sweep candle close, that's the signal.
2. ADX at 9:30 AM ET (15-min chart, SPY): The primary gate. If SPY ADX is already > 32 at session open on the 15-min chart, today is a no-trade. A risk-rally that pulls SPY directionally could push ADX above the ceiling. Check before committing to any position.
3. 8:30 AM ET Empire Manufacturing reaction in SPY: If the print surprises (hot or cold), SPY will get a sharp 5-minute move. Watch the ADX reading after the 8:30 data settles. A sharp up move on a strong print could push ADX past 32 early. A weak print surprising the market could reverse the gap-up setup entirely — creating a different kind of volatility that also exceeds the 1.25× vol filter.

Full stand-down if:

• SPY 15-min ADX > 32 at 9:30 AM ET and stays above 32 through 10:00 AM ET
• SPY's prior session high is higher than I can confirm before session (if prior high is above 750, the gap would need to narrow substantially for a kill-zone sweep)
• 8:30 Empire data causes a SPY move > 1.25× yesterday's daily range (vol filter breach on today's own range — note: technically the vol filter uses yesterday's range, but if today's session is dramatically wider, this is a signal to reduce exposure)
• SPY sweeps the prior session high and continues through cleanly (confirmed breakout) — that's a breakout, not a sweep-and-reversal

Signal-level invalidation:

• RSI(2) at the sweep candle close is below 88: no trade even if structure is perfect
• No 1-minute FVG forms in the reversal impulse after the sweep candle, or retrace into FVG doesn't occur within 15 minutes

No trades taken.

No trade. The filters held correctly.

QQQ: +3.18%, closed 744.29, range 737.38–744.76. SPY: +1.92%, closed 756.02, range 751.76–756.68. VIX 16.13, down 0.65. Driver: U.S.-Iran peace deal, Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil collapse — global risk-on.

• Filed: 2026-06-15 pre-market
• Briefing event risk confirmed: MEDIUM
• Today's session call: NO TRADE — both instruments filtered out

• QQQ prior close: 721.34. Implied open: ~736 (+$14.80, approximately)
• SPY prior close: 741.75. Implied open: ~743.42 (+$1.67, approximately — very mild)
• NQ daily ATR(14): approximately $10–12 at current vol levels (VIX 17.68). Estimate needed at open.
• QQQ gap size ratio: ~$14.80 / ~$11 ATR ≈ 1.35× — well above the 0.70× ceiling
• SPY gap size ratio: ~$1.67 / ~$8 ATR ≈ 0.21× — within range on size but see trend filter below

1. ATR confirmation at open: Verify the QQQ daily ATR(14) at 9:25 AM ET. If ATR is significantly higher than the $10–12 estimate (e.g., ATR = $20+ due to recent volatility), the gap ratio would be lower. Still extremely unlikely to be within 0.70× at a 2% gap. Record the actual value for Phase 3 log.
2. SPY gap at exact open: The 0.09% pre-market print could shift at the 9:30 AM open. If SPY actually opens with a larger gap or a gap DOWN, the setup criteria could theoretically reset. Watch the 9:29–9:30 AM transition.
3. 2026 watch condition tracking: Today is a no-trade day, which does not count toward the 30-trade WR watch. The first 30 trades must be actual qualifying entries. Confirmed: today's no-trade is filter-based, not setup-based — this is the strategy working correctly.

No setup to invalidate. If somehow QQQ opens much closer to prior close than futures indicated (< 0.70× ATR, above 0.10×), and the gap direction is DOWN (gap-down in an uptrend is tradeable per filter 3), re-run all filters and enter only if all pass. That scenario is extremely unlikely given what futures are showing.

No trades taken.

No trade. The gap ratio filters worked exactly as designed.

QQQ: +3.18%, closed 744.29, range 737.38–744.76. SPY: +1.92%, closed 756.02, range 751.76–756.68. VIX 16.13, compressed. Driver: U.S.-Iran peace deal, Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil collapse.

• Filed: 2026-06-15 pre-market
• Briefing event risk confirmed: MEDIUM

• QQQ prior close: 721.34. Implied open ~736 (+ ~$14.80, ~2%)
• Prior session high: unknown from briefing but likely ~722–726 range — already blown through pre-market
• Asian session high/low (7pm–2am ET): likely capped below 730 before futures ran; will mark on chart at 8:20 AM PT
• London session high/low (2am–7am ET): ran the gap — likely in 728–736 range; mark at 8:20 AM PT
• Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 AM ET is the primary noise risk — right at kill zone open

1. ADX at kill zone open (8:30 AM ET): Pull 15-min ADX(14) before 8:30. If > 35 entering the session, standing down — this is a trend day, not a sweep day. Re-check at 9:00 and 10:00 AM if initially borderline (28–34 range).
2. Mega-cap spread at 8:30 ET: QQQ up 2% with SPY only up 0.09% is a significant divergence. This confirms the move is concentrated in NQ names. Watch whether NVDA, MSFT, AAPL are at 2%+ intraday by 8:45 AM. If all three are running, the coherence check will flag any upside sweep as Concentrated. Downside sweeps (if Empire disappoints) would be against mega-cap direction = elevated confidence per the strategy.
3. 8:30 AM Empire data reaction: The first 5 candles after 8:30 are data noise. Watch the range of the 8:30–8:45 AM candles. The sweep signal must be structurally clean, not chaotic choppy wicks around the data print. Only count setups where the sweep candle forms AFTER the initial data reaction has settled.

Full stand-down if:

• 15-min ADX > 35 at any point during planned session and does not drop below 35 by 9:30 AM ET
• QQQ continues grinding higher all morning with no reversal sweep (trending day with no structure to trade)
• Both the 8:30 and 9:15 data prints create sustained repricing that prevents clean FVG formation (price is choppy and impulsive simultaneously — no retrace into FVG after any sweep)

Reduced confidence if:

• All three mega-caps (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL) are running 2%+ intraday by the time a sweep forms — treat any such setup as Concentrated, apply 25% size reduction

No trades taken.

No trade. This was the correct outcome.

Today was a news-driven gap-and-extension session. QQQ opened near 737 and climbed to a session high of 744.76, closing at 744.29 (+3.18%). The driver: a U.S.-Iran peace deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening, which sent oil sharply lower and triggered a broad global risk rally overnight. Nikkei +4.84%. VIX compressed to 16.13.