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House Mneme — 2026-08-06

House Mneme 2026-08-06
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-06 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.50 direction: long conviction: med trace: p_trade: 0.30 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-06

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-06-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: HIGH (briefing rating). No Tier-1 today, but NFP is TOMORROW (Fri 08-07) — a pre-registered hard skip for both stacks; today is the last tradeable session of the week. The single-name layer is the live risk: SPCX first lockup expiration (~911.5M shares / ~$123B eligible, short interest 219.3M), the memory-complex after-hours reversals (WDC ~-11% on a beat, SNDK ~-5% on a record quarter, APP ~-16–20% — third consecutive session of the beat-and-dump cycle), the Hormuz deal window lands TODAY (Trump's "tomorrow or the next day" is now today; Bessent sees "a chance of a deal in hours"), and the Fed-hike narrative is live (Cook: "prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary"). Scheduled: Challenger 7:30, Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 (cons 205K / prior 197K — the labor pre-read the day before NFP), Q2 Productivity 8:30, COP BMO + BRK.b pre-market, NET/TTD/DKNG/TEAM after close.
  • Session character expected: Mixed / event-driven — a two-tier open. Dow/S&P bid on deal hopes + healthcare/energy + super-Thursday European earnings; Nasdaq under pressure from the memory/tech gap-downs. The briefing's calibration flag applies in full: today's marquee gaps are DOWN, so AI/memory continuation is a conditional to stress, not the base case — the base case is divergence into tomorrow's NFP. Name-level structure dominates index direction. This is precisely the desk's 07-24 two-tier failure-mode day shape (see member sections).
  • VIX regime: 15.85 — LOW (<18). Both members' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). No regime-based conviction cut.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 769.79, prior range 769.53–776.81, SMA20 748.37, ATR(14) 9.65 — above SMA20, uptrend intact at the level. QQQ prior close 717.10, range 716.95–728.42. DIA is not in the briefing price block — TRACE's recent Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 $523.31); the Dow closed at a record for a third straight session Wednesday. 769.53 (SPY prior low) is the two-tier test: SPY holding above it while QQQ fades = the Dow-side bid is real; a break of 769.53 with Nasdaq leading down opens the gap-down continuation and both stacks' afternoon character turns adverse.
  • Macro backdrop: Peak earnings week + the labor pre-read ahead of NFP + the Hormuz headline window + SPCX lockup supply + a Fed member openly floating a hike — a narrative-overlay session whose dominant feature (two-tier divergence) is this desk's known structural vulnerability.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.50, long, med conviction)

No hard skip today — all three windows eligible (Claims/COP/SPCX-lockup/Hormuz are not Tier-1/Tier-2; NFP is TOMORROW, which is the skip day).

Setup present: Possible. I am deliberately stepping down from yesterday's "likely" — not because of event proximity, but because the two-tier structure is my known failure mode, and today it is structurally live. The 07-24 learning: my anchor Window B took a structural loss when a morning rally reversed in the 14:00–16:00 execution window on a two-tier divergence session; the 07-31 follow-up sharpened it — the afternoon-fade risk is conditional on pre-market index divergence, and today the divergence is present pre-market (Dow/S&P up, Nasdaq down on the memory gap-downs). The 07-24 finding also noted the historical pattern library (2020–2024) may be thin on structurally-divergent rotation sessions — which suppresses max_sim exactly where I need it. That is a real probability drag, and I am pricing it into p_trade 0.50 rather than pretending the character is clean. What keeps the day alive: VIX LOW, SPY well above SMA20, no skip, and a Window A that is better-placed today than on any session this week.

  • Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, enter 10:00, flat 12:00): the best placement A has had all week — no 10:00 macro print today (Claims at 8:30 lands before my observation window and is absorbed as genuine pattern input; yesterday A sat on the ISM block). The memory gap-downs set a distinctive open. A is my live-hot window (2W/0L, including the largest Phase 3 trade: +$528.22 at vote 73.3% / max_sim 0.8238 on 08-04). If A fires, demand vote ≥ 70% — that stance was validated, not violated, on 08-04. The A-specific hazard is headline risk: a Hormuz deal announcement (Bessent says "in hours") can whipsaw the 10:00–12:00 prediction segment.
  • Window B (observe 10:00–12:00, enter 12:00, flat 16:00): my anchor window (holdout PF 3.76) carries today's heaviest load, and it is where the 07-24 condition lives. The two-tier gate on B: if the 10:00–12:00 observation shows SPY/QQQ converging (QQQ holding despite the memory gap-downs — NVDA holding at the open is the tell), the afternoon-fade risk is reduced and B is trustworthy. If divergence persists through lunch — SPY firm on deal-hope/energy rotation while QQQ stays weak — the 14:00–16:00 execution window is exactly where the tech sell-off reasserts (07-24's shape) and I skip B. Add the NFP-tomorrow layer: the afternoon is where positioning for the print happens; a morning rally that is rotation rather than broad participation is the 07-24 setup, not a continuation.
  • Window C (observe 12:00–14:00, enter 14:00, flat 15:30): flagged in holdout (PF 1.25) but live-hot — four straight HARD_FLAT wins (07-23/28/31/08-03), +$284.97 combined. Today C's 14:00–15:30 prediction segment is the two-tier fade window AND the NFP-drift window — the same afternoon where B's risk lives. Exceptional-strength bar stays (max_sim > 0.65 AND vote > 70%), with the standing reminder that C has fired-and-won below it (08-03: 66.7% / 0.7794); the KNN's own gates decide, the bar is my assessment stance, not a gate edit.
  • Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50). HIGH event risk does not change sizing — no Tier-1 today, every window hard-flats (12:00/16:00/15:30) so nothing is ever held across an event, and per-trade risk is fixed at 0.75% by the 1.5× ATR stop. Same stance as 08-04/08-05; the largest trade of Phase 3 came from it.
  • SPRT: CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (sticky first crossing at trade #14, LLR +3.494). Informational only — changes nothing about gates or sizing, and it is not a license to relax the planning bars.
  • Invalidation: SPY opens gap > 1.5% either direction (extreme auction — sit out A, reassess at B); VIX > 20 (LOW-regime assumption dead); a hot Claims print (headline ≥ ~205K or any read the market takes hawkish the day before NFP) or a Hormuz-deal crude breakdown flipping the tape risk-off within the first hour → stand down B and C; NVDA breaking at the open with QQQ leading SPY down (semis cascade — the two-tier resolves bearish) → skip B, reassess C on its own observation quality; divergence persisting through lunch → skip B (the 07-24 condition, now pre-flagged).

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.30, long, low conviction)

No hard skip today — all three windows eligible.

Setup present: Possible — gate-improbable, not structurally excluded. Same verdict as yesterday, and I mean it both ways. No hard skip, VIX LOW (my best regime, PF 2.46), the Dow at record highs for a third straight session. The binding constraint is unchanged and well-characterized: the vote gate has clustered at exactly 60% across five distinct sessions (07-15 A, 07-17 C, 07-21 A, 07-31 C, 08-04 A+C), never 61, while similarity passes by wide margins (0.902 / 0.901 on 08-04); the sim-side has exactly one graze (08-03 C: vote 70% PASS, max_sim 0.589 vs 0.60 — a 0.011 miss). The learnings consensus (both Family 5 members, both instruments): the 62% vote threshold sits at the natural resolution point of the binomial KNN vote — it is regime, not calibration, and today's high-noise structure is not the day I bet the cluster breaks. Watch item carries: a second sim-side graze would start a cluster against the 0.60 threshold and reopen the question.

  • DIA-specific inputs today: the marquee risk names (WDC/SNDK/APP/SPCX) are Nasdaq names — my 30-stock Dow microstructure barely touches them. The Dow side of the two-tier tape is the supported side (deal hopes + healthcare/energy + super-Thursday European earnings), and energy is the Dow's Hormuz-exposed sector (COP reports BMO as the oil read-through; BRK.b pre-market is the mega-cap anchor; neither is a Dow constituent). EIA already printed Wednesday — no EIA today. The Dow's record third-straight close Wednesday is the constructive backdrop.
  • Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, enter 10:00, flat 12:00): where 6 of my 7 Phase 3 trades came from — and better-placed today than yesterday: no 10:00 macro print (Claims at 8:30 absorbed into the 6-bar observation as pattern input). If A fires, the 10:00–12:00 prediction segment is still a labor-reaction window; demand the ≥70% decisive vote.
  • Window B (observe 10:00–12:00, enter 12:00, flat 16:00): the cleanest observation of the day (Claims + Productivity fully absorbed). Rare live (1 of 7 trades), but this is where a DIA signal is most trustworthy — and today its 14:00–16:00 execution sits in the two-tier fade window and the NFP-tomorrow drift. If the two-tier divergence persists through lunch, B's afternoon is structurally hostile; if it resolves (both indices convergent), B is the quality placement.
  • Window C (observe 12:00–14:00, enter 14:00, flat 15:30): flagged (recomputed holdout PF 1.125; rolling-20-trade PF < 1.2 suspension rule live) — exceptional-strength bar only (max_sim > 0.65 AND vote > 70%). C has been my closest window two sessions running (08-03 sim-side graze; 08-04 60% vote / 0.901 sim); if it fires today it needs the sim floor to clear.
  • Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50) if a genuine signal fires. No cut, no defensive hedge — see SPRT posture.
  • SPRT posture: LLR -1.350, -1.595 from DEGRADED (-2.944). A qualifying loss likely breaches DEGRADED → desk PM review within 1 session, TEMPER conversation within 5. Pre-registered; a sequential monitor is not a sizing input and not a reason to trade defensively — stated plainly so the plan does not hedge around it.
  • Invalidation: a hot Claims print flipping the tape risk-off within the first hour → stand down B and C — my industrial tilt (CAT, HON, MMM, CVX) takes a labor-data risk-off hardest among this desk's instruments; SPY opens gap > 1.5% either direction (pattern library thin at index extremes) → sit out the morning, reassess at B; VIX > 20; a Hormuz deal announcement breaking oil and rotating the tape violently → each window is reassessed on its own observation quality, not presumed.

Pooled note (Family 5)

If both stacks fire today, same-family same-day longs count as one clustered observation for significance (desk rule). Each sizes independently; there is no shared position budget, and one stack's fire is not evidence for the other's — a strong SPY setup implies nothing about DIA's independent signal. Today is the last tradeable session before Friday's NFP hard skip for both stacks. MNEME's CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST declaration and TRACE's DEGRADED proximity are separate pre-registered monitors; neither changes the other's stance.

GHOST — IWM (FROZEN — Phase 2, Decision D2)

Skipped entirely. No plan, no forecast, no plan file.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-06 07:30 ET
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: GO (with HIGH event-risk caveat — NFP tomorrow, SPCX lockup, memory gap-downs, Hormuz window)
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA