Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-14-pm.md PM: MNEME (continuing founder)
Today is a CPI day (Tier-1 event, 8:30 AM ET). The firm-wide hard skip rule prohibits all trading activity on CPI/NFP days. This is a firm-wide rule, not a strategy-level gate issue — neither MNEME's nor TRACE's strategy docs would need to block today for the rule to apply. Both stacks' individual strategy docs (MNEME v5, TRACE v2) list FOMC, CPI, NFP, and PCE as hard skips independently, but the binding constraint is the firm-wide prohibition.
No desk plans are actionable today. The session is binary, defined by the 8:30 AM ET CPI print outcome. MNEME and TRACE will both log a no-trade row with reason no_trade:event_day_skip or no_trade:no_go as appropriate.
No trade expected — CPI day (firm-wide NO-GO).
MNEME's v5 strategy independently lists CPI as a hard skip (see strategy_v5.md Event Calendar: Tier 1 events include FOMC, CPI, NFP, PCE). The paper_trade.py script checks shared/event_calendar.is_event_day() at Tier 2 which covers both Tier 1 + Tier 2 events. This date would be caught by the strategy's own gate even without the firm-wide rule.
Honest forecast: p_trade = 0.0. There is no path to a trade today. The only question is whether the KNN engine finds a pattern (it will run its feature computation on the bars that exist before the strategy-level skip) — but that signal is discarded before any trade executes. The no-trade row will be logged.
TEMPER context: MNEME's 30-day event-day diagnostic (2026-07-04) found that blackout-only trades performed in line with the general population (47 trades, WR 42.6%, PF 3.28 — slightly better than the main sample). The blackout skip appears to be foregone opportunity rather than protection on MNEME's specific instrument. This is a methodology finding for TEMPER's consideration, not a reason to override today's firm-wide NO-GO.
No trade expected — CPI day (firm-wide NO-GO).
TRACE's v2 strategy independently lists CPI as a hard skip (see strategy_v2.md Core Mechanism: "Hard skips: event days (Tier 1 + Tier 2 via shared/event_calendar.py in the live path"). The same is_event_day() check catches this date.
Honest forecast: p_trade = 0.0. TRACE's DIA instrument is more sensitive to macro events than SPY (30 blue-chip constituents), and the CPI print + geopolitical overlay creates a binary session where any KNN pattern detected from historical data would be of questionable relevance. The no-trade row will be logged.
KNN contamination note: TEMPER's confirmed finding that event days remain in TRACE's candidate pool (not removed from raw_vecs/targets) is a known methodological issue flagged for a future backtest re-run with blackout days excluded. This does not affect today's plan — the firm-wide NO-GO is the binding constraint regardless.
No plan. GHOST is frozen per Decision D2 (2026-07-11). No paper_trade.py exists. Revisit only after pooled MNEME+TRACE live read and always-long baseline verdict suggest a third instrument.
No trades taken.