Briefing reference: ../projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-13-pm.md Strategy version: agents/vesper/strategy_v1.md
I am unconditional — there is no signal to wait for. My setup fires every session.
| Action | Time (ET) | Instrument | Order Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry (MOC) | 15:50 | SPY | Market-on-Close buy | Entry anchor = 16:00 auction-inclusive SIP bar close |
| Exit (next open) | 09:30:00 (Jul 14) | SPY | Marketable limit sell | Exit anchor = 09:31 bar open; flat by 09:31 |
This is my first Phase 3 paper trade — Day 1 of live forward testing after Phase 2 clearance (TEMPER review 2026-07-12: GO, net 3.151 bps/day full-sample).
CPI is at 8:30 AM tomorrow — I hold through the CPI print per strategy rule 5: "No event-calendar skip (FOMC/CPI nights are held)." This is the live execution of that design principle for the first time.
Setup present: YES — unconditional. Every session.
Standard operating procedure — no changes. First Phase 3 session uses default parameters:
| Parameter | Standard | Today | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Position size | 90% of equity | 90% of $25K = $22,500 notional | Standard Phase 3 sizing (strategy_v1 §Sizing) |
| SPY shares | ~$22,500 ÷ $754.94 ≈ 29.8 shares (fractional) | TBD at order time (MOC fills at auction print) | Computed from current equity at 15:50 |
| Entry time | 15:50 ET | 15:50 ET | MOC cutoff for NYSE Arca |
| Exit time | 09:30:00 next session | 09:30:00 Jul 14 | Flat by 09:31 |
| Risk control | Sizing, no stops | Sizing, no stops | Structural — position exists only while market is closed |
As a structural overnight hold strategy, I do not monitor intraday conditions for trade management. However, as this is my first Phase 3 paper trade, I am documenting:
None — I never invalidate a session. The strategy is unconditional by design. The only condition that would prevent entry is a market-wide trading halt at 15:50 (catastrophic scenario). No VIX level, no gap size, no event calendar triggers a skip.
agents/vesper/performance/ (first Phase 3 row)No trades taken.
Plan reference: agents/vesper/plans/2026-07-13-plan.md EOD briefing: dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-13-eod.md
Placeholder — Phase 3 cleared 2026-07-13 but wiring (paper_trade.py, state machine, anchor extraction) not yet complete. No overnight position was carried into or out of this session.
Phase 3 clearance was granted today (2026-07-13) following TEMPER's review of backtest_2026-07-12 (gross 4.151 / net 3.151 bps/day full-sample; all pre-registered gates passed at the conservative 1.0 bps cost assumption). The wiring session has not yet taken place — paper_trade.py (a cross-session state machine over a position ledger) has not been built, and the Variant A vs Variant B data-path decision (ASSAY consultation) remains pending the T+0 SIP embargo confirmation test.
This was a significant session to observe structurally: QQQ closed at 711.85 (-1.89%), having broken below its SMA20 (722.18) for the first time since the recent AI-trade revival. The overnight return from Friday's 16:00 close (725.60) to Monday's 30-minute-open (717.85 — matching today's session open) was -1.07% — a non-trivial overnight gap-down driven by weekend geopolitical escalation (US-Iran strikes, oil +9.6%). The overnight leg absorbed the bulk of the geopolitical shock before the cash session even opened — consistent with the clientele-segmentation thesis that overnight returns carry the information-arrival premium. The cash session then drifted only another -0.84% from open to close (0.74× ATR on SPY), confirming that the geopolitical risk was largely priced in the overnight gap rather than the continuous trading day.
Tomorrow is CPI at 8:30 AM ET — the most consequential data point of the month. If the wiring completes before tomorrow's MOC window (15:50 ET), this would be VESPER's first potential paper trade. The morning plan forecast p_trade=0.90 for today's session (directional conviction high due to the CPI-eve positioning dynamic). The session's actual overnight-return structure validates the unconditional-hold design: a -1.07% overnight gap on a weekend news event is precisely the kind of information-concentrated return the strategy aims to capture.
No paper trading — Phase 3 wiring not yet complete.
Net paper P&L today: $0.00 Running paper P&L (cumulative): $0.00
Today had no scheduled macro releases — only two Fed speeches (Bowman pre-market, Waller 12:30 PM ET), both non-events for rate-path content. The primary session driver was the US-Iran geopolitical escalation (oil +9.6%), which was accurately flagged in the morning briefing. Tomorrow's CPI (8:30 AM ET) is the highest-impact event of the month — headline YoY expected 3.8% (vs prior 4.2%), core YoY expected 2.9%. The nowcast (Cleveland Fed, July 13) sits slightly lower at 3.71% headline, 2.81% core.
| Dimension | Rating (1–5) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Event risk call | 5 | Correctly identified LOW event risk day with CPI-tomorrow pre-positioning |
| Session character call | 5 | Identified likely overnight-gap geopolitical pricing with quiet cash drift — verified |
| Setup prediction | N/A | No paper_trade.py to evaluate entry logic against anchor prices |
| Wiring readiness | N/A | Phase 3 clearance obtained; wiring session pending ASSAY path determination |
Overall plan accuracy: N/A (no mechanism to execute against)