House Delta — 2026-07-14

Desk Plan — House Delta — 2026-07-14

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-14-pm.md PM: delta (continuing founder, sole member)

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: HIGH — CPI (June 2026) at 8:30 AM ET. First negative headline MoM print in years expected (-0.1% consensus), driven by lower gasoline prices. Core inflation expected sticky at +0.2% MoM. Cleveland Fed nowcast at 3.71% YoY headline, slightly below consensus.
• Session character expected: Event-driven / binary — completely defined by the CPI print outcome. Two-phase structure: Phase 1 (pre-CPI / bank earnings), Phase 2 (8:30 AM CPI print dominates opening 30–60 minutes).
• VIX regime: 17.34 — LOW (< 18). DELTA performs best in low VIX (strategy_v2: dev PF 2.59 in VIX < 20) but this is irrelevant today — the hard CPI skip takes precedence.
• Key levels: QQQ prior close 711.85 (below SMA20 722.18 — first sustained break since June 26). SPY 749.13 (above SMA20 744.33 — index divergence persists). NVDA prior close not in briefing; 5-min bars for first-hour return evaluation would be available under normal conditions.
• Macro backdrop: Geopolitical overlay — US naval blockade of Iran begins today, Brent crude extending rally (yesterday +9.6% to $83.30/bbl). Big bank Q2 earnings season kickoff (JPM, WFC, C, BAC, GS reporting before open). CPI print coinciding with naval blockade start creates an oil-inflation passthrough channel: a hot CPI would compound the geopolitical risk premium; a soft CPI could relieve it.

DELTA — NVDA→ASML, AMD→TSM (LONG-only)

No trade expected — CPI day (Tier-1 hard skip). DELTA's strategy_v2 rule is explicit: "Hard skips: FOMC, CPI, NFP, PCE days." The signal requires evaluating the leader's first-hour return (09:30–09:55 ET) for a ≥ ±1.5% move, then entering the laggard at 10:00 ET. On a CPI day, the 8:30 AM print injects a macro-driven gap and first-hour range that is a data reaction, not a supply-chain signal. The leader's first-hour return on CPI day reflects inflation shock propagation, not semiconductor demand — the lead-lag relationship DELTA trades is confounded by the macro announcement. TEMPER's clearance review explicitly noted "for Family 4, this is methodologically defensible (macro events can break lead-lag relationships)" and recommended a diagnostic run with the skip disabled to confirm — that diagnostic has not yet been performed (open item, moderate priority). This skip remains the correct default.

The session is binary and defined by the CPI print. Even if pre-CPI semis drift directionally (bank earnings or geopolitical reaction), a signal at 09:55 would be structurally unreliable — the print's aftermath rewrites the session context. The 2.0× ATR stop and 15:30 hard flat do not protect against a CPI-driven regime change between entry and exit.

Sizing: N/A — no trade. Key level: QQQ 711.85 below SMA20 is a structural concern for NVDA (QQQ's largest constituent) but is a macro observation, not a setup consideration today. Invalidation: N/A — session closed by hard skip rule before any signal evaluation.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-07-14 07:30 ET
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
• Firm-wide trade status: NO-GO (CPI today)
• Member status: delta — p_trade 0.0 (hard skip), session not evaluated

No trades taken.