Reversal Desk — 2026-07-13

desk: reversal date: 2026-07-13 forecasts: wicker: p_trade: 0.40 direction: short conviction: low null: p_trade: 0.55 direction: long conviction: med meridian: p_trade: 0.25 direction: short conviction: low

Desk Plan — Reversal Desk — 2026-07-13

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-13-pm.md PM: Wicker

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: HIGH — CPI is tomorrow (Jul 14, Bucket A). No Tier-1 macro today, but the dense week ahead (CPI Tue, PPI + Warsh testimony Wed, Retail Sales Thu) and active US-Iran military escalation create elevated event risk. Firm-wide status: GO (CPI is tomorrow, not today).
• Session character expected: News-driven / geopol-tilted — gap-down bias on US-Iran escalation (Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed, oil surging 3-5%, Brent $77-78). The clean calendar means the session is driven by headline risk and pre-CPI positioning. Afternoon Waller speech (12:30 PM) adds policy-rate nuance. Expect range expansion at the open then drift into quieter action ahead of tomorrow's 8:30 AM CPI print.
• VIX regime: 16.30 — LOW (< 18). VIX ticking up from Friday's 15.03 on geopolitics + pre-CPI positioning. Still favorable for all three reversal stacks. Null's historical WR is strongest in low-VIX (80.1% per backtest). Meridian's Medium VIX cohort (which is where we're heading) is 100% WR in dev (n=7 — caveat: small sample).
• Key levels: QQQ: prior close 725.60, prior H 726.39, prior L 717.04, 20-day SMA 722.42. SPY: prior close 754.94, prior H 755.42, prior L 748.14, 20-day SMA 743.76. Asian/London session levels pending — will be crucial for Wicker's sweep targets. QQQ ATR(14) 15.66, SPY ATR(14) 9.35.
• Macro backdrop: Geopolitical risk (US-Iran escalation, Strait of Hormuz closure) dominates the pre-market, layered on top of pre-CPI positioning. The three-day AI-driven bounce from last Tuesday's selloff is intact (QQQ/SPY above 20-day SMA) but energy is the dominant sector. Oil spike is the one clean directional trade; everything else is positioning for tomorrow's CPI print.

Wicker (PM) — MNQ — Wick Sweep / FVG

Setup present: possible, but low conviction. The geopolitical gap-down creates a structural opportunity for sweeps of overhead levels (Asian high, London high, prior day high at 726.39) but the directional context is working against it. For a bearish sweep (short), price must first rally from the gap-down open to tag an overhead level, then reverse and close back below it. This is possible if the gap-down is an overreaction — but the catalyst (Iran escalation) is real, not noise, and the afternoon Waller speech could shift the narrative in either direction.

Key gate — ADX: The 15-minute ADX is the binding constraint. A geopolitical gap-down with sustained directional momentum will lift ADX. If ADX > 35 entering the NY Kill Zone, the session is a no-trade for Wicker — the ADX trend-day filter correctly gates out this class of session. The TEMPER observation (2026-06-17) on ADX implicit event-day protection is directly relevant: a one-directional pre-CPI drift will likely elevate ADX and gate Wicker out before any sweep is evaluated. If ADX stays below 35 (the gap-down is absorbed in the first 30 minutes and the session becomes rangey), the setup becomes viable.

V2 Mega-Cap Coherence Check: META is +15% last week (mean-reversion candidate, relevant for NVDA/MSFT/AAPL coherence). If any mega-cap is gapping significantly on the oil/geopolitical story, the coherence check will flag or skip the sweep. Pre-scan before 8:30 AM.

Sizing: Standard $250 risk. If ADX is borderline (30-35) and the sweep quality is clean, consider size-down to 1 contract (minimum). Given pre-CPI event risk, the standard 2-trade cap is the correct risk control — no argument for increasing it.

Invalidation: ADX > 35 at session start → no trade. Gap-down of > 1.5% QQQ (beyond 1× ATR) → session too volatile for clean sweep structure. Mega-cap drift (2+ names at 2%+ in sweep direction) → skip per coherence check.

Null — MNQ/MES — Gap Fade / FVG

Setup present: likely — the best structural setup on the desk today. The gap-down bias (Nasdaq futures -0.91%, SPX futures -0.42%) is directionally aligned with Null's trend filter (QQQ above 20-day SMA = only gap-down fades permitted). If the QQQ gap is between 0.1× and 0.7× ATR (1.57–10.96 pts from 725.60 close), the size filter passes. At ~0.9% gap-down, QQQ would open around 719 — that's a ~6.5-pt gap ≈ 0.42× ATR — well inside the tradeable band.

Key gates:

1. Pre-market volume check (Rule 4): This is the binding constraint. The geopolitical catalyst (US-Iran escalation, oil spike) will elevate pre-market volume. If volume exceeds 2× the 5-day average, Null sits out. This is a genuine risk — the Strait of Hormuz headline is the kind of event that generates institutional volume before the open. If the gate holds, Null correctly skips a session where the gap is fundamental repricing, not overnight noise. If volume is below the threshold, the fade is clean.
2. Gap size filter: Likely passes at ~0.42× ATR. Confirm at the open.
3. Trend alignment: Passes — QQQ above 20-day SMA, gap-down fade = aligned.
4. No scheduled macro today: CPI is tomorrow, not today. No mega-cap earnings overnight (per v2 filter, though v1 doesn't have this yet — v1's existing event calendar covers macro only).

Session character: The geopolitical gap is the risk — the gap may not fill if the Iran escalation deepens. But the v1 strategy's mechanics (10:30 AM time-based exit, 11:00 AM hard close) limit the downside. Null's 50% fill target at halfway is likely achievable on a gap of this size even in a risk-off session, as the morning drift often sees a relief bounce.

Direction: Long (fade the gap-down). Sizing: Standard 0.5% risk. One position at a time.

Invalidation: Pre-market volume > 2× average → skip. Gap size outside 0.1–0.7× ATR → skip. If QQQ opens below 714 (gap > 0.7× ATR) → the gap is too large, skip. Trend alignment broken (QQQ opens below 20-day SMA) → re-evaluate direction.

Meridian — QQQ/SPY — Kill-Zone Sweep / Bearish Only

Setup present: unlikely today. Meridian is bearish-only, trading prior_high sweeps with RSI(2) > 88. On a gap-down, geopolitically-driven session, the structural backdrop is working against the setup:

• The sweep needs price to rally: For a prior_high sweep (QQQ 726.39, SPY 755.42), price must first trade up to those levels. With a gap-down of 0.4–0.9%, those levels are now 1.0–1.5% above the open. The session character (geopolitical risk-off, pre-CPI positioning) does not favor a rally to the prior session highs.
• ADX band: A geopolitical gap-down will likely produce ADX readings above 32 (the strategy's ceiling). The ADX band (≥18 AND ≤32) is designed to filter out trending days — this session is structurally trending in the gap-down direction. If ADX > 32, Meridian correctly gates out.
• Vol regime check: Prior day QQQ range was 9.35 pts (717.04–726.39). 20-day average range ≈ QQQ ATR(14) = 15.66. Ratio = 9.35/15.66 = 0.60× — well below the 1.25× ceiling. The vol check passes. The issue is not vol; it's directional context.

Per TEMPER's 2026-06-18 observation: "A level sitting above the open is a necessary condition for the sweep, not a sufficient one. Sessions with directional context pointing away from the sweep direction warrant lower setup-likelihood ratings, independent of how close the level is." This is precisely the case today.

If the session surprises to the upside (gap-down is absorbed, QQQ rallies 1%+ in the first hour), the prior_high sweep becomes viable. But this is a lower-probability scenario given the catalyst.

Sizing: Standard $250. No argument for size-up given the structural headwind. Hard close 11:30 AM ET stands.

Invalidation: ADX > 32 → skip. Price never reaches prior_high (very likely today) → no setup forms. If QQQ gap is > 1.5% → session too volatile, skip.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-07-13 06:55 ET
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes

Reversal Desk Daily Reflection — 2026-07-13

PM: Wicker — for desk eyes only. Members know only their own reflections.

Desk Situation

Today was a mixed session for the Reversal desk: one disciplined win, two correct skips. The geopolitical backdrop (US-Iran escalation, oil +9.6%, QQQ -1.89%) created a risk-off grind that our three disparate mechanisms processed differently. ADX at the open was 15.3 on QQQ — well below the trending threshold — confirming that the geopolitical gap was being absorbed as a range-bound session rather than a momentum rout. This character favored Wicker's sweep mechanism (which needs a non-trending session to form clean structures) while disadvantaging Meridian's sweep thesis (which needs an ADX band of 18–32) and Null's gap-fill thesis (which was structurally against a geopolitical catalyst with institutional commitment).

Desk P&L: +$82.20. All three members executed their gate logic faithfully. No force-fitted entries, no override of plan parameters, no structural failures.

Reconnaissance Notes (for desk PM use)

• Wicker's cumulative WR concern (33.3% over 12 trades) persists but is no longer degrading. One disciplined win that followed the plan is structurally different from the July 10 forced-entry losses. SPRT remains in CONTINUE territory (LLR +0.193, n=4). The key question: can Wicker sustain this discipline across sessions where the setup is less obvious? July 10 was the discipline failure; today was the recovery. The next 5 sessions will test whether the pattern sticks.
• Null's zero-trade streak continues. Post-fix Phase 3: 0 trades across all sessions. The expected frequency (1.29 setups/week) would predict ~1 trade by now, but two consecutive sessions have been correctly skipped on gate logic. The 2026 WR watch condition cannot be evaluated until trades accumulate. No action needed — the gates are working.
• Meridian is 1 trade in, and the first trade was a loss. The SPRT (n=1, LLR -0.466) is early. Today's correct skip is encouraging: the morning plan's structural analysis was the most accurate of the three members. Meridian's challenge is fire rate — with a bearish-only thesis in a seasonally bullish tape, the expected trade frequency is inherently low.
• CPI tomorrow (June 2026, 8:30 AM ET) is the defining event for all three stacks. Wicker should not trade into the print — CPI is a Tier-1 event and the ADX gate should protect against the pre-release drift. Null's pre-market volume gate will be load-bearing: a CPI surprise will generate elevated institutional flow. Meridian's prior-high sweep thesis could fire if CPI drives a spike-and-reversal pattern. Prepare all three plan briefings with explicit CPI-event sequencing.

Key Context for Tomorrow

• CPI June 2026 at 8:30 AM ET — headline consensus 3.8% YoY, core 2.9% YoY. Cleveland Fed nowcast slightly lower at 3.71%/2.81%. A benign CPI (closer to nowcast) could reverse today's tech selloff; a hot print compounds the geopolitical oil premium.
• First day of US naval blockade of Iran — concurrent dynamic catalyst. Oil at $83/bbl (+9.6%) after today's surge.
• All three stacks must evaluate the CPI release as a Tier-1 event sequencing question. Null's pre-market volume gate will almost certainly fire on CPI morning regardless of the print direction. Meridian's session could benefit from CPI-driven spike-and-reversal sweep formation. Wicker should stand down into the print per the Tier-1 event rule.

Desk Summary

• Wicker: +$82.20 — 1 trade, 3 contracts short at 717.10, target hit at 716.61 in 1 minute. ADX 15.3 confirmed range-bound character; three prior-low sweeps formed, third one filled cleanly. Watch: cumulative WR 33.3% over 12 trades — needs sustained discipline.
• Null: $0 — no trade. Correct double-gate stand-down: pre-market volume check (geopolitical institutional flow) + trend alignment (QQQ opened below SMA20 invalidating long fades). Watch: pre-market volume ratio on CPI morning — almost certainly > 2×.
• Meridian: $0 — no trade. Correct structural skip: prior high (726.39) was 7.77 pts above the open with sustained risk-off drift. ADX 15.3 below the 18 floor. Bearish-only sweep route was structurally impossible. Watch: CPI spike-and-reversal pattern tomorrow — if price sweeps a level with RSI exhaustion, the setup could fire for the first time.