House Mneme — 2026-07-15

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-07-15 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.55 direction: long conviction: med trace: p_trade: 0.60 direction: long conviction: med

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-07-15

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-15-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: MEDIUM — PPI (June) at 8:30 AM ET is the session's binary event. No formal Tier-1 hard-skip (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), but PPI is effectively HIGH-impact in context. Warsh testimony (Day 2) at ~10 AM and the Beige Book at 2 PM add cross-currents. Fed policy-sensitive session.
• VIX regime: 16.38 — LOW (< 18). Continued decline from Monday's geopolitical spike. Provides cover for trending if the data is clean, but trailing ATR remains elevated from the Monday gap.
• Session character expected: News-driven / binary. The CPI-relief rally extended overnight (SPY closed 751.94, comfortably above SMA20 at 744.85). PPI determines whether this extension continues (soft print → disinflation narrative confirmed → trending-up) or reverses (hot print → energy-inflation story reasserted → choppy/down).
• Key levels: SPY 748.71 (prior-day low) — break below on hot PPI signals reversal. SPY 753.31 (prior-day high) — break above on soft PPI confirms bullish continuation. DIA lacks explicit briefing levels but tracks the broad market direction.
• Macro backdrop: The second act of the week's macro trifecta. Yesterday's CPI surprise (−0.4% MoM headline vs −0.1% consensus) sets a high bar for PPI to confirm the disinflation narrative. Consensus PPI: −0.1% MoM headline, 6.2% YoY. Prior: +1.1% MoM, 6.5% YoY. Brent at ~$85.61/bbl (Hormuz Strait blockade active) complicates the energy pass-through story.

MNEME — SPY (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%)

p_trade: 0.55 | direction: long | conviction: med

Setup assessment: Macro-driven sessions are not KNN's natural habitat — similarity-based prediction thrives on technical/structure-driven days where intraday bar patterns encode genuine state information, not on binary macro reactions. However, there are two structural reasons MNEME may still fire today:

1. Timing works in our favour. PPI prints at 8:30 AM. Window A's observation period (9:30–10:00) starts 60 minutes after the print — enough time for the initial volatility spike to settle and the market to establish its post-PPI direction. By 10:00 ET, the bar pattern should reflect genuine post-event price discovery, not the initial shock.
2. SPY is above SMA20 (751.94 vs 744.85) and the macro backdrop (soft CPI, ASML beat-and-raise, risk-on global tone) leans bullish. A soft PPI print would create a trending-up session that aligns with MNEME's long-only bias.

Window-specific call:

• Window A (enter 10:00): The first 30 minutes of post-PPI price discovery are the most likely source of a signal. KNN will compare the opening 6-bar pattern against history — if the session trends up after a soft PPI, the bar pattern may resemble prior post-CPI rallies. If PPI is hot, the gap-down open followed by volatile churn in the first hour is less likely to match a clear historical pattern. Primary target window.
• Window B (enter 12:00): Higher conviction if the morning direction is unambiguous. A clean trending morning produces 24 bars of directional microstructure that KNN can match against similar trending mornings in the past. Secondary — only fires if A misses.
• Window C (enter 14:00): Not expected to fire. The Beige Book at 2 PM adds event risk to the prediction segment's final hour. Window C is structurally the weakest (holdout PF 1.25) and should not be relied upon on a macro-heavy day.

Sizing: Standard 0.75% per trade ($187.50 on $25K). No size adjustment — event risk is MEDIUM, not HIGH, and the timing buffer protects the entry window.

Invalidation: PPI headline MoM positive (hot print) → session likely bearish → long-only KNN faces structural headwinds → no trade expected for any window. In that case, wait for Window B to see if the session finds a floor — but do not force a trade.

What I'm watching:

1. PPI headline at 8:30 AM — the single most important data point for today's setup
2. SPY's 5-min bars from 9:30–10:00 — does the opening pattern show clean directional conviction or choppy two-sided action?
3. Warsh testimony tone at 10 AM — any hawkish surprises could reverse the PPI reaction

TRACE — DIA (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%)

p_trade: 0.60 | direction: long | conviction: med

Setup assessment: TRACE has been firing consistently — Window A on 3 of the last 4 eligible sessions with high conviction scores (vote 70-80%, max_sim 0.77-0.88). DIA's cleaner 30-stock microstructure is producing genuine pattern matches that survive the higher max_sim gate (≥ 0.60). This consistency suggests TRACE is finding its stride after the July 5-8 fetch-bug disruption.

DIA is less correlated to the Nasdaq/tech narrative driving the SPY/QQQ divergence. The Dow's blue-chip constituents (industrial, financial, healthcare, consumer staples) are less affected by the AI-demand cross-current (IBM profit warning vs. ASML beat) and more sensitive to the broad macro direction — which is precisely where KNN's pattern matching works best: cleaner signal, less narrative noise.

Window-specific call:

• Window A (enter 10:00): Primary target. TRACE's recent track record shows Window A as the most frequent and structurally reliable signal generator for DIA. The same timing buffer that protects MNEME's Window A (60 minutes post-PPI) applies here.
• Window B (enter 12:00): Higher-conviction fallback if the morning establishes a clear direction. DIA's 24-bar morning observation captures the Dow's deliberate, less volatile intraday behaviour better than SPY's faster moves.
• Window C (enter 14:00): Not expected to fire. DIA's Window C is near-breakeven (recomputed holdout PF 1.125 on n=18). The Beige Book adds event risk to the close. Let the pre-registered suspension rule (rolling 20-trade PF < 1.2) do its work — do not rely on Window C today.

Sizing: Standard 0.75% per trade ($187.50 on $25K). No size adjustment.

Invalidation: A hot PPI print that triggers broad equity selling (SPY below 748.71, Dow futures indicating a -0.5%+ open) creates a bearish backdrop for a long-only signal. If DIA gaps down > 0.5% at the open and the first 30 minutes show continued selling pressure rather than a bounce, Window A similarity may not hold — TRACE's max_sim gate (≥ 0.60) is higher than MNEME's (≥ 0.50), providing natural protection against weak pattern matches on volatile macro days.

What I'm watching:

1. DIA's 9:30-10:00 5-min bars post-PPI — same timing buffer as MNEME, cleaner instrument signal
2. The Dow/SPY divergence today — if DIA outperforms SPY (or holds better on a hot PPI), that confirms the cleaner-microstructure thesis
3. max_sim scores on any Window A query — recent scores have been excellent (0.77-0.88); a drop below 0.70 would suggest the macro-driven bar pattern is not matching historical technical patterns

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-07-15 07:00 ET
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
• Frozen members skipped (GHOST): yes

No trades taken.