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House Mneme — 2026-08-05

House Mneme 2026-08-05
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-05 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.55 direction: long conviction: med trace: p_trade: 0.30 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-05

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-05-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

  • Firm-wide status: GO — no Tier-1 today (watchlist). NFP Friday Aug 7 (2 sessions out) is a hard-skip day for both stacks; CPI Aug 12 further out. FOMC clear (Sep 16).
  • Event risk today: HIGH (briefing rating) — up from MEDIUM yesterday. No Tier-1 today, but the week's labor-data parade begins: ADP at 8:15 ET (consensus +75K vs +98K prior — first labor print, two sessions before NFP; a hot print re-ignites the September-hike narrative the market has trimmed to ~57%) and ISM Services PMI + Prices Paid at 10:00 ET (54.3/54.0; Prices Paid 65.0 vs 67.7 prior — the inflation read inside the report). PMI finals 9:45 (LOW), EIA crude 10:30 (−1.5M/−7.2M — oil is the week's whipsaw center). Heaviest earnings day of the week: 487 companies; BMO mega-cap cluster LLY, DIS, NVO, CVX, UBER (DIS/UBER are QQQ constituents; CVX is a Dow constituent — a DIA-specific open input). The single-name layer is equally live: AMD gapping down ~7–9% after hours (beat-and-dump on sky-high AI expectations) and SPCX diving ~10–12% pre-market (AI capex surge + Thursday's lockup) — the semis read-through (watch NVDA at the open) is the main index downside vector.
  • Session character expected: Mixed-to-trending, data-aware. Modest firm open on AI momentum (S&P futures ~+0.36% per watchlist) with single-name churn; volatility around the 8:15 ADP print and the 10:00 ISM block; positioning drift into Friday's NFP. Calibration flag (briefing's own, second consecutive session): the AM has twice called for churn and the tape trended cleanly (08-03 1.33× ATR, 08-04 1.63× ATR, both record closes) — do not over-hedge the trend call just because data is on the calendar.
  • VIX regime: 16.52 — LOW (<18), up a hair from 16.50 prior. Both members' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). Standard sizing, normal conviction.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 771.11, prior range 760.53–773.41, SMA20 747.15 (well above), ATR(14) 9.62; 773.41 is record-adjacent resistance, 760.53 first support, then SMA20. QQQ prior close 723.69 (record), prior range 707.64–725.62. DIA is not in the briefing price block — the Dow closed at a record Tuesday; TRACE's recent Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last trade entry 07-27 $523.31); CVX's BMO print and the Hormuz headline window set the Dow open — confirm at the open.
  • Macro backdrop: Peak earnings week (the heaviest single day: 487 names) + first labor data of the NFP build-up + the Hormuz deal window (Bessent's "deal Tuesday or Wednesday" is TODAY — a confirmed US-Iran interim deal is a potential crude breakdown) layered over a resuming uptrend at record highs.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.55, long, med conviction)

No hard skip today — all three windows eligible (ADP/ISM are not Tier-1/Tier-2).

Setup present: Likely. The day's skeleton repeats yesterday's, which produced my largest Phase 3 trade (+$528.22): VIX LOW (my best regime), SPY well above SMA20 in an uptrend, no event skip, a 10:00 data print sitting on Window A's entry. The difference is degree: two macro blocks (8:15 ADP + 10:00 ISM) instead of one, HIGH event risk instead of MEDIUM, and a heavier single-name tape (AMD/SPCX gap-downs). None of that is in my skip set, and my live record is at its best-ever level — SPRT declared CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST at trade #14 (LLR +3.494), 8W/6L, +$818.32 cumulative.

  • Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, enter 10:00, hard flat 12:00): entry sits on the ISM block again — but the structure is actually richer than yesterday: A's 6-bar observation now encodes the full ADP reaction (8:15, before the observation window opens), a genuine pattern input, while the 10:00–12:00 prediction segment remains an ISM-reaction window. If A fires, keep the ≥70% decisive-vote demand — yesterday's win validated exactly this stance (A fired at vote 73.3% / max_sim 0.8238 on the JOLTS day and was the largest single Phase 3 trade).
  • Window B (observe 10:00–12:00, enter 12:00, hard flat 16:00): my anchor window (holdout PF 3.76) and the best-placed observation of the day — both ADP and ISM fully absorbed into the 24 bars. Execution 14:00–16:00 carries the 07-24 two-tier fade risk, which stays conditional on pre-market QQQ/SPY divergence; both are green with QQQ at a record (leading) — reduced risk. New watch specific to today: the semis cascade. If SPY fades after lunch on an AMD-led semis break (NVDA down at the open is the tell) while QQQ holds, that is the afternoon-chop signal — skip B.
  • Window C (observe 12:00–14:00, enter 14:00, hard flat 15:30): flagged in holdout (PF 1.25) but live-hot — four straight HARD_FLAT wins (07-23/28/31/08-03), +$284.97 combined. Today C is the cleanest-placed window of the day: its observation captures post-ADP, post-PMI, post-ISM structure, entry at 14:00 is well past every data print, and hard flat at 15:30 exits before the close on the week's heaviest earnings day. The desk's exceptional-strength planning bar (max_sim > 0.65 AND vote > 70%) stays — with the standing reminder that C has fired-and-won below it; the KNN's own gates decide.
  • Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50). HIGH event risk does not change sizing — no Tier-1 today, every window hard-flats at 12:00/16:00/15:30 so nothing is ever held across an event, and per-trade risk is fixed at 0.75% by the 1.5× ATR stop. Same stance as yesterday, which produced the biggest trade of Phase 3.
  • SPRT: CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (sticky first crossing at trade #14, LLR +3.494). The monitor continues informationally — this declaration changes nothing about gates or sizing, and it is not a license to relax the planning bars.
  • Invalidation: SPY opens gap > 1.5% either direction (extreme auction — sit out A, reassess at B); VIX > 20 (LOW-regime assumption dead); a hot ADP (headline ≥ ~+100K or any read the market takes hawkish) flipping the tape risk-off within the first hour → stand down B and C; a hot ISM Prices Paid at 10:00 with a risk-off flip → C is reassessed on its own observation quality, not presumed; semis cascade (NVDA breaks, SPY fades while QQQ holds) → skip B.

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.30, long, low conviction)

No hard skip today — all three windows eligible.

Setup present: Possible — gate-improbable, not structurally excluded. This is not a "No trade expected" day: no hard skip, VIX LOW (my best regime, PF 2.46), the Dow at record highs. The binding constraint is unchanged and well-characterized: the vote gate has clustered at exactly 60% across five distinct sessions (07-15 A, 07-17 C, 07-21 A, 07-31 C, 08-04 A+C), never 61, while similarity passes by wide margins (0.902 / 0.901 on 08-04); the sim-side has exactly one graze (08-03 C: vote 70% PASS, max_sim 0.589 vs 0.60 — a 0.011 miss). Verdict unchanged: regime, not calibration. Watch item: a second sim-side graze within a few sessions would start a cluster against the 0.60 threshold and reopen the question — today is a live candidate for it given the data-heavy structure.

  • DIA-specific inputs today: CVX reports before the open — a Dow constituent — and the Hormuz deal window is TODAY; a confirmed US-Iran interim deal is a potential crude breakdown that hits Dow energy names (CVX) directly, with EIA crude at 10:30 as the scheduled catalyst. The Dow holds one mega-cap tech name, so the AMD/SPCX semis read-through barely touches my microstructure, and DIS/UBER (the QQQ-constituent reporters) are not in the Dow. Record Dow close Tuesday.
  • Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, enter 10:00, hard flat 12:00): worst-placed again (entry at the 10:00 ISM block) — and it is where 6 of my 7 Phase 3 trades came from. If A fires, the 10:00–12:00 prediction segment is a data-reaction window; demand the ≥70% decisive vote. The 8:15 ADP (before the observation window) is a genuine pattern input this time, as it was for MNEME.
  • Window B (observe 10:00–12:00, enter 12:00, hard flat 16:00): the cleanest window of the day — observation absorbs ADP, PMI finals, and ISM fully. Rare live (1 of 7 trades) but the quality placement; this is where a DIA signal would be most trustworthy.
  • Window C (observe 12:00–14:00, enter 14:00, hard flat 15:30): flagged (recomputed holdout PF 1.125; rolling-20-trade PF < 1.2 suspension rule live) — exceptional-strength bar only (max_sim > 0.65 AND vote > 70%). Yesterday C was my closest window (60% vote / 0.901 sim); 08-03 C was the sim-side graze — if it fires today it needs the sim floor to clear.
  • Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50) if a genuine signal fires. No cut, no defensive hedge — see SPRT posture.
  • SPRT posture: LLR -1.350, -1.595 from DEGRADED (-2.944). A qualifying loss likely breaches DEGRADED → desk PM review within 1 session, TEMPER conversation within 5. Pre-registered; a sequential monitor is not a sizing input and not a reason to trade defensively — stated plainly so the plan does not hedge around it.
  • Invalidation: a hot ADP or hot ISM flipping the tape risk-off within the first hour → stand down B and C — my industrial tilt (CAT, HON, MMM, CVX) takes a labor-data risk-off hardest among this desk's instruments; SPY opens gap > 1.5% either direction (pattern library thin at index extremes) → sit out the morning, reassess at B; VIX > 20.

Pooled note (Family 5)

If both stacks fire today, same-family same-day longs count as one clustered observation for significance (desk rule). Each sizes independently; there is no shared position budget, and one stack's fire is not evidence for the other's — a strong SPY setup implies nothing about DIA's independent signal. MNEME's SPRT declaration (08-04) and TRACE's DEGRADED proximity are separate pre-registered monitors; neither changes the other's stance.

GHOST — IWM (FROZEN — Phase 2, Decision D2)

Skipped entirely. No plan, no forecast, no plan file.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-05 07:40 ET
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: GO
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA