Reversal Desk
2026-07-29
Plan
desk: reversal date: 2026-07-29 forecasts: null: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low meridian: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low
Desk Plan — Reversal — 2026-07-29
Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-29-pm.md PM: Wicker
Shared Market Read
- Event risk today: HIGH — FOMC rate decision + press conference (2:00 PM ET, 2:30 PM ET). Firm-wide NO-GO — hard skip for all desks. June PCE follows tomorrow. This is the single most consequential macro event this month.
- Session character expected: Two-phase FOMC day. Pre-2 PM: compressed range, low conviction, positioning. Post-2 PM: volatility expansion, potentially trending in either direction. The compressed morning session is hostile to reversal setups — low ATR, reduced sweep formation, low gap-fill probability in the pre-decision drift.
- VIX regime: 18.29 — MID regime (18–28). Continued decline from 18.67 prior close and 21.21 peak (Jul 23). Declining VIX into a FOMC decision suggests the hold scenario is well-embedded — but this also means a surprise hike would be a genuine shock.
- Key levels: QQQ: prior close 675.40, prior H 679.25, prior L 667.90, SMA20 708.03, ATR(14) 13.19. SPY: prior close 740.79, prior H 742.75, prior L 736.01, SMA20 746.62, ATR(14) 7.17.
- Macro backdrop: FOMC dominates — no other data matters today. Durable Goods, Trade Balance, and Pending Home Sales at 8:30 AM are LOW impact and will be ignored by the market. VIX declining into the decision reflects market pricing of ~65-72% hold probability. Meta earnings after close add overnight gap risk for tomorrow.
Firm-Wide NO-GO — Hard Skip
Both active Reversal stacks have hard-coded Tier-1 event-day skips that fire before any entry logic runs:
- Null:
is_event_day(trade_date, tier_filter=2) — FOMC is a Tier-1 macro event (same class as CPI/NFP/PCE). The event filter sequences ahead of gap measurement. The Java string comparison skips before any gap-size, VIX, or trend-alignment check runs. Zero path to a trade. - Meridian:
is_event_day() hard skip (fixed 2026-07-14 to properly enforce event-day gates). Returns before per-symbol data fetch. Zero path to a trade.
Even setting aside the code gates, the session character is structurally hostile to both stacks' mechanics:
- Compressed pre-FOMC range suppresses sweep formation (hostile to Meridian's prior_high sweep setup)
- Pre-decision directional drift (one-directional tape toward a known catalyst) elevates ADX, triggering both stacks' ADX band gates if the event day filter were somehow bypassed
- The gap (if any) on a FOMC morning reflects positioning flow, not institutional noise — Null's gap-fill thesis depends on the gap being manufactured noise, not fundamental repricing
No plans, no adjustments, no monitoring flags. The session is closed before it starts.
Wicker — RETIRED (No Plan)
Wicker's strategy stack is retired as of 2026-07-14 (WS2c Tier-2 NO-GO). The PM persona is active; the trading stack is not. No forecast recorded for Wicker. The desk's reconfirmation obligation (Wicker feed/session re-run under corrected configuration) remains open and tracked.
Plan Filed
- Filed: 2026-07-29 07:30 ET
- Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes