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Aug 13, 2026 18:43 ET
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House Slack — 2026-07-29

House Slack 2026-07-29
Plan

desk: house-slack date: 2026-07-29 forecasts: slack: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Slack — 2026-07-29

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-29-pm.md PM: SLACK

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: HIGH — FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET) + Powell press conference (2:30 PM ET). Firm-wide NO-GO — hard skip for all desks.
  • Session character expected: News-driven / two-phase — compressed range pre-2:00 PM, volatility expansion post-decision. Classic FOMC day pattern. The market enters with VIX declining to 18.29 (MID regime, down from 18.67 prior close) and QQQ stretched 4.6% below its 20-day SMA.
  • VIX regime: 18.29 (MID regime). For SLACK: structurally irrelevant — the backtest validates profitability across all regimes (PF 1.28–3.01). The binding constraint is the 5-day return threshold, not the VIX level.
  • Key levels (IWM): Month-long range 292–300 remains intact. IWM continues to be the least-exposed major index to the AI/semi rout — it holds almost no mega-cap tech. The two-tier divergence (QQQ below SMA20, small caps resilient) has left IWM pinned.
  • Macro backdrop: FOMC decision day. The 2-day meeting concludes with a rate decision at 2:00 PM ET. Market pricing: Hold at 3.50-3.75% (65-72% implied) / 25bp hike (28-35%). Meta earnings after close add overnight risk. PCE releases tomorrow (Jul 30). This is the most concentrated macro week of the year.

SLACK — IWM (5-day fixed hold swing)

Position state: Flat. position_ledger.json: {"open_position": null}. No open position. 15% equity sizing available ($3,750 notional on $25K account).

Firm-wide status: NO-GO. FOMC decision day — hard skip for all desks. Even if a signal were present, no trade would be taken today.

Signal setup today: Not present — and the hard skip overrides regardless.

IWM's trailing 5-day close-to-close return was +0.17% as of yesterday's close (2026-07-28) — approximately 4.8pp below the ±4.97% threshold. This is the 13th consecutive session without a qualifying signal. The structural picture is unchanged: IWM pinned in a 292–300 range for over a month, with the two-tier divergence (QQQ/tech collapsing, IWM/small caps resilient) preventing a sustained 5-day directional extremity in either direction.

TEMPER's retrospective finding (2026-07-24) confirmed: The extended no-signal stretch is expected behavior — the mechanism requires sustained 5-day directional extremity, not a one-session gap. The range-bound regime is structurally incompatible with the signal threshold. This is not edge degradation.

FOMC/PCE overlap (purely academic today): Since there is no signal, the question of whether a 5-day hold would span the FOMC decision and PCE release is moot. The strategy's sizing (15% of equity, calibrated against the COVID tail at -19.66% of notional) already covers multi-day event risk — conscious awareness is standard, no adjustment warranted.

Sizing vs. event risk: N/A — no position to size. Standard 15% fixed-notional sizing would apply if a signal existed.

Setup evaluation: Setup not present; hard skip overrides. p_trade 0.0 reflects the combination of structural unreachability (IWM pinned, 5-day return ~4.8pp below threshold) and the firm-wide NO-GO.

What I'm watching:

  1. IWM's 5-day return vs. ±4.97% — the only gate. The FOMC outcome could break the 292–300 range if the narrative shifts meaningfully. A decisive close above 300 or below 292 would be a necessary precondition for a future flagged run.
  2. The 292–300 range boundary — now pinned for over a month. The FOMC decision is the most likely catalyst to break this range. Watch for follow-through in the sessions after today.
  3. FOMC outcome effect on small caps — a dovish hold (base case) is likely neutral for IWM; a surprise hike could trigger a risk-off move that finally pushes IWM below 292; a hawkish hold could extend the two-tier divergence (tech selling, small caps resilient).

Invalidation: No invalidation scenario applies today — no open position, no entry signal, and the firm-wide NO-GO independently prohibits any trade. The standard passive monitoring posture is correct.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-07-29 07:15 ET
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • Active members: slack (IWM)
  • Position state: flat
  • Firm-wide status: NO-GO (FOMC decision day)
  • Expected action: no trade — paper_trade.py will log a no_trade:no_signal row
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
IWM