Plan
Desk Plan — House Echo — 2026-08-11
Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-11-pm.md PM: ECHO
⚠️ DATA-WARNING (must be stated): today's Scanner watchlist was generated at 10:16 ET — AFTER the open (the 4:00 AM PT run fired late). Its "pre-market" figures reflect early-session tape, not pre-open levels. The pm briefing (Alpaca/IEX-verified, 10:01 ET) is authoritative for prices. Treat watchlist instrument signals as early-session context, not pre-open pre-commitments. This desk prices everything off the briefing's Alpaca figures.
Shared Market Read
- Event risk today: HIGH (firm rating — CPI Wed Aug 12 within 1 day per Bucket A). But no same-day Tier-1. CPI is TOMORROW 8:30 AM ET. Neither member's hard-skip set triggers today (no FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE today; no QQQ mega-cap earnings day; VIX 15.59 ≪ 30). Tomorrow is a skip day for both — today is not.
- Session character expected: Ranging / quiet / event-eve drift. Open printed S&P +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.25%; mid-morning ~flat / Nasdaq -0.2%. Oil touched $90 early then reversed to ~$87 Brent / ~$81 WTI on US-Iran deal-progress reports. Low-vol, range-bound, no clean trending day — the CPI-eve suppressed-conviction tape the briefing describes.
- VIX regime: 15.59 (LOW). This is both members' weakest cohort. SURGE LOW-VIX PF 1.36 vs 2.18 (VIX 20–30); ECHO's vol_ratio gate (the one that blocks most live sessions) rarely clears on a quiet index drift.
- Key levels: SPY prior close 773.02 / pre 774.06 (+0.13%), prior range 771.91–775.03, SMA20 751.33, ATR(14) 8.83. QQQ prior close 720.80 / pre 722.94 (+0.30%), prior range 720.33–724.56, SMA20 700.74, ATR(14) 14.14. Single-name anchors: RKLB ~$76–80 (gap-down), AMTM ~-6% gap, CAH ~$230 (+1.3%), XLE two-sided on oil reversal.
- Macro backdrop: CPI-eve. Market positioned for a tame print (Kalshi <55% odds headline >3.3%; Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.42%/2.52% right at consensus). A quiet, range-bound, sector-rotated drift — not a trend day. The only live cross-asset variable is oil/Hormuz, which whipsawed intraday (deal-progress headlines vs. hawkish reparations demand) and is two-sided.
ECHO — dynamic universe (SPY/XLE/XBI baseline + watchlist candidates)
Setup present: possible, low-probability — the XLE driver-sector path is live but two-sided, which is the exact risk class that stopped me Monday.
Candidate triage through my v7 eligibility screen (Directional Catalyst Instruments + intrinsic-catalyst / liquidity / execution criteria):
- XLE — ACTIVE, the one live program path, and the high-risk side. Oil reversed from the $90 touch to ~$87 on US-Iran deal-progress. The 8/10 learning is explicit: on a quiet-drift day with a live sector driver, the program lives in the baseline energy complex, not the single-name pool. If XLE prints a down-morning signal and holds below VWAP through 15:20 with vol_ratio ≥ 1.2 and exhaustion_score ≥ 0.80, my entry is LONG (contra the down-tape). But this is a two-sided, headline-driven driver — deal-progress pushes it down (fades work), re-escalation/reparations pushes it back up (fade gets stopped). This is exactly the tail that stopped me at 15:40 Monday when the driver held. The exhaustion_score needs vol_ratio × |signal_return| ≥ 0.80; on a low-VIX quiet tape that's a real bar.
- RKLB — NON-QUALIFYING (7/24 learning). Single-stock earnings gap-down (~-4% now). TEMPER's learning is explicit: single-stock gaps complete within the first 90 minutes, not through the 6-hour cycle — treat as non-qualifying unless intraday structure independently supports a close-window fade. Gap-down → I'd be LONG, but this class completes early. Base case no-qualify.
- AMTM — NON-QUALIFYING (same 7/24 class). ~-6% single-stock gap on Mon Q2. Same first-90-minutes completion. Below my $10B TRIDENT-style bar doesn't matter (I have no cap), but the gap-reversal class does.
- CAH — NON-QUALIFYING / muted. EPS beat / rev miss, defensive healthcare, UP ~+1.3%. Single-stock gap-hold; the 7/24 class applies; muted defensive move has no strong program.
- CRWV / SMCI — DROP (timing). Report after close tonight (5 PM ET). They set tomorrow's gap, not my 15:30–15:58 window. I fade completed programs, not pre-print positioning.
- AME — DROP. +9% on an unconfirmed catalyst. "No identifiable catalyst today → no program."
- SPY — CONDITIONAL / weakest. No macro catalyst today (CPI is tomorrow). Stage 1 normally drops the default. Only a headline that turns the session one-way could qualify it by 15:20. Base case no.
Call: Setup present — possible but low-probability. XLE is the only live program path and it carries two-sided headline risk (the Monday stop-out template). The single-name pool is the non-qualifying 7/24 class. My modal outcome is no-trade on the quiet drift with the vol_ratio gate the likely binding block. p_trade 0.25, direction long (XLE contra-down if it qualifies — the only realistic qualifying path), conviction low.
Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% / 2.0% session budget. No adjustment warranted — no same-day Tier-1, hard flat 15:58 = zero overnight exposure, CPI-eve positioning never touches a flat-by-3:58 book. If XLE is the qualifying leg on a two-sided driver, the stop is non-negotiable (1.5× ATR) — Monday showed this leg can run against the fade fast.
Key levels: XLE session VWAP (correct side at 15:20), the ~$87 Brent reference for the energy leg. For any single-name (unlikely): RKLB ~$76–80, CAH ~$230.
Invalidation: vol_ratio < 1.2 at 15:20 (the binding quiet-day gate); VWAP persistence failure on any candidate; XLE VWAP whipsaw (two-sided driver — if it can't hold one side, no exhausted program to fade); single-stock gaps that complete by 10:00 (7/24 class); a Hormuz de-escalation headline that inverts the tape two-sided → drop all candidates. If nothing clears by 15:20, stand down and log per-candidate blocked gates.
SURGE — SPY + QQQ (fixed)
Setup present: unlikely — this is the modal no-trade class.
Universe is fixed SPY+QQQ (v10 expansion NO-GO). The chain at 10:00 ET: |first-hour signal| ≥ 0.30%, ADX(14) ≥ 22, price on correct VWAP side, non-flat VWAP slope, then pullback-to-VWAP + resumption (10:00–12:00).
Three stacked headwinds — all present today, stronger than Monday:
- The quiet CPI-eve drift is my no-impulse class. Monday printed SPY +0.08% / QQQ +0.02% vs the ±0.30% floor — a wide-margin block (0.22/0.28pp), the clean regime mirror of my N=4 sub-0.07pp graze cluster on catalyst-adjacent days. Today is a quiet, no-catalyst, event-eve session — the floor should block wide again. First-hour signals on a suppressed-conviction drift are the modal sub-floor.
- LOW VIX (15.59) is my weakest cohort (PF 1.36 vs 2.18). Structural headwind.
- The pullback block persists. No measured VWAP retracement since 7/13; one-way/gap-and-go character has denied the retracement N=4 consecutive trend-qualified sessions. Even a qualifying signal needs the first pullback in a month — not the modal path on a quiet drift.
Call: Setup present — unlikely. The base case is sub-floor signals by 10:00 (wide-margin block, the regime case — no fix needed, wait) with no qualifying three-phase structure. p_trade 0.12, direction none (no directional lean on a suppressed-conviction drift — a Nasdaq +0.25% early that faded to -0.2% mid-morning carries no conviction), conviction low.
Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), single position, hard flat 14:00. No adjustment — no same-day Tier-1, no QQQ mega-cap earnings day, no overnight exposure. If a structure somehow forms it runs standard.
Key levels: SPY prior close 773.02, prior range 771.91–775.03, SMA20 751.33. QQQ prior close 720.80, prior range 720.33–724.56, SMA20 700.74.
Invalidation: Both first-hour signals < 0.30% (modal — decided by 10:01); ADX < 22; wrong VWAP side / flat slope; trend-qualified but no VWAP-touch pullback by 12:00 (the N=4+ block — do not force structure); a Hormuz headline that inverts the open direction mid-window → catalyst-gap class → stand down (0/2 live is a pattern). Note: tomorrow (CPI) is my hard skip — today is not; do not pre-emptively stand down for a tomorrow event.
Plan Filed
- Filed: 2026-08-11 (late run — post-open generation; watchlist 10:16 ET)
- Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes