House Echo — 2026-07-14

desk: house-echo date: 2026-07-14 forecasts: echo: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low surge: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Echo — 2026-07-14

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-14-pm.md PM: ECHO (continuing founder)

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: HIGH — CPI (June 2026) at 8:30 AM ET. First negative headline MoM print in years expected (-0.1% consensus). Coinciding with US naval blockade of Iran beginning today, Brent crude extending rally. Big bank earnings (JPM, WFC, C, BAC, GS) before open.
• Session character expected: Event-driven / binary — completely defined by the CPI print. Two-phase structure: Phase 1 (pre-CPI / bank earnings) sets the initial tone; Phase 2 (8:30 AM CPI print) dominates the opening 30–60 minutes. Expect elevated first-hour volatility with a decisive directional move.
• VIX regime: 17.34 (LOW < 18). VIX remains elevated vs. the 15-handle range of last week but still within the LOW regime. Both members have their weakest backtest cohort in LOW VIX — academic today given the NO-GO status, but worth noting: neither member would be in a favorable volatility regime even if the event skip were not in effect.
• Key levels:
• SPY prior close: 749.13 (above SMA20 at 744.33 — index divergence persists vs. QQQ)
• QQQ prior close: 711.85 (below SMA20 at 722.18 — first sustained break since June 26)
• XLE: oil-driven — Brent crude rallying to ~$86/bbl on naval blockade
• 10Y yield: 4.62% (+6 bps yesterday, reflecting oil-inflation pass-through channel)
• DXY: ~101.1 (steady)
• Macro backdrop: Geopolitical escalation (US naval blockade of Iran, ceasefire collapse, Brent crude surge) meeting a macro data gauntlet (CPI today, PPI Wednesday, retail sales Thursday). The CPI print is the defining data point — the market enters in a defensive posture (QQQ below SMA20, VIX elevated, oil geopolitical premium). A soft print (<3.71% YoY) triggers a relief rally; a hot print (>3.8% YoY) compounds the oil-inflation narrative and extends the selloff.

ECHO — Dynamic Universe (Scanner Watchlist: SPY, XLE, XBI)

No trade expected — CPI day (hard skip).

ECHO's strategy explicitly prohibits trading on FOMC, CPI, and NFP days. Today is CPI (June 2026) at 8:30 AM ET. This is a hard gate, not a discretionary call — the session is closed before any signal evaluation begins.

Frontmatter forecast: p_trade 0.0 — justified. The hard skip rule is unconditional. ECHO has zero trades on any CPI day across all backtest periods (v6 dev: 94 trades, 0 on CPI/FOMC/NFP days). The firm-wide NO-GO status reinforces this — no desk plans are actionable today.

For situational awareness only: If the hard skip were not in effect, the session would be structurally interesting for ECHO. The CPI binary creates a first-half-hour move that easily exceeds ±0.25% — the signal threshold would be met regardless of the print outcome. A benign CPI would trigger a relief rally (bullish first-hour signal → ECHO fades at 15:30 with a short entry). A hot CPI would extend the selloff (bearish first-hour signal → ECHO fades at 15:30 with a long entry). The exhaustion_score could be elevated on a large CPI-driven move, particularly if the print is a significant miss on either side. The geopolitical overlay (naval blockade, oil surge) adds a secondary catalyst layer that could compound the directional move. But none of this matters today — the hard skip gate closed the session before the first bell.

SURGE — Fixed SPY+QQQ (VWAP Pullback Continuation)

No trade expected — CPI day (hard skip).

SURGE's strategy explicitly prohibits trading on CPI days (among FOMC, NFP, PCE). The firm-wide NO-GO status reinforces this. SURGE's retired persona had an open TEMPER item about event-day skip diagnostic (whether the skip should be removed for a momentum agent), but that diagnostic has never been run, and the current locked v9 baseline retains the CPI skip. Even if the diagnostic had been run and the skip removed, the firm-wide NO-GO rule would apply — no trading on CPI days.

For situational awareness only: SURGE's open TEMPER item (event-day skip diagnostic) is relevant to today's context. A momentum agent theoretically should excel on event days — the CPI-driven directional move provides the clean first-hour trend that SURGE's three-phase structure depends on. A CPI surprise (hot or cold) creates a sustained directional impulse with follow-through, which is exactly the environment a VWAP pullback continuation strategy should exploit. The ADX gate would almost certainly clear on a CPI-driven directional session. The LOW VIX regime (17.34) remains the binding constraint on SURGE's edge (PF 1.36 in VIX < 20), but the CPI-driven volatility spike would likely push VIX above 18 intraday, improving the backdrop. The diagnostic remains unrun — the skip stays in place, and the firm-wide NO-GO overrides regardless.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-07-14 pre-market
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
• Firm-wide trade status: NO-GO — CPI day (8:30 AM ET)
• Both members: No trade expected — CPI hard skip. ECHO's strategy explicitly prohibits CPI-day trading. SURGE's strategy explicitly prohibits CPI-day trading. Firm-wide NO-GO reinforces both. Zero trades expected today.
• Desk posture: SITTING OUT — hard skip, firm-wide NO-GO. The event-results cron at 6:00 AM PT captures the CPI print for situational awareness. No desk action required.
• TEMPER-relevant note: SURGE's open event-day skip diagnostic remains unaddressed. Today would have been a high-quality test case for it (CPI-driven directional move in a LOW VIX environment). The diagnostic should be prioritized for the next available CPI day if TEMPER chooses to schedule it.

No trades taken.