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Aug 13, 2026 18:43 ET
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Reversal Desk — 2026-07-22

Reversal Desk 2026-07-22
Plan

desk: reversal date: 2026-07-22 forecasts: wicker: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low null: p_trade: 0.25 direction: short conviction: low meridian: p_trade: 0.25 direction: short conviction: low

Desk Plan — Reversal Desk — 2026-07-22

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-22-pm.md PM: Wicker (persona, own strategy retired 2026-07-14)

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: MEDIUM — GOOGL and TSLA report after the close. The macro calendar is light (UK CPI already released at 2.6% below 2.7% consensus; MBA Mortgage Apps at 7:00 AM; State JOLTS at 10:00 AM; EIA crude oil inventories at 10:30 AM). The session character is entirely determined by pre-earnings positioning. FOMC blackout period continues (Jul 18–29). IBM pre-market gap-down of -22% on a revenue miss is the dominant single-stock catalyst.
  • Session character expected: Consolidation / pre-positioning — low conviction intraday. The chip bounce that drove yesterday's recovery (+2.35% QQQ) has stalled in Asia (Nikkei -0.25%), pre-market ES futures are modestly lower (-0.14%), and the session is expected to be a holding pattern ahead of tonight's mega-cap results. Ranges are likely below ATR for both SPY and QQQ.
  • VIX regime: 17.44 (LOW — below 18). Ticked up slightly from 17.05 prior close but remains in the LOW regime. LOW regime is Null's best VIX bucket (80.1% WR backtest). For Meridian, LOW VIX means 15-min ADX is more likely to be in or near the 18-32 band than elevated above it — favorable for band admission.
  • Key levels:
  • QQQ prior close 708.78, prior H 710.04, prior L 702.81, SMA20 714.58 (below SMA20 — 6th consecutive day). ATR(14) 14.14. Gap size filter: 0.1-0.7× ATR = 1.41-9.90 pts. The 710.04 prior high (Meridian's sweep target) sits just 1.26 pts above the prior close.
  • SPY prior close 748.15, prior H 749.03, prior L 744.25, SMA20 744.94 (above SMA20 — reclaimed yesterday). ATR(14) 7.26. The 749.03 prior high (Meridian's sweep target) sits 0.88 pts above the prior close.
  • IBM -22% pre-market gap-down is a significant single-stock move that may create cross-asset spillover into tech sentiment broadly.
  • Macro backdrop: Pre-earnings consolidation with underlying cross-currents. Oil (Brent +2.78% to $93.54) adds a sector-level divergence: energy rallies while tech consolidates. The two-tier market (SPY above SMA20, QQQ below SMA20 for 6 days) persists. The correction from June highs has paused but not reversed. FOMC blackout removes Fed-speak as a variable.

Wicker — MNQ (wick sweep / FVG) — STRATEGY RETIRED

No trades. Wicker's strategy was retired 2026-07-14 (WS2c Tier-2 NO-GO — the cleared edge was a tight-stop artifact; no honest-stop configuration holds PF ≥ 1.5 under realistic fills). Live paper_trade.py halted. The sweep/FVG entry signal (57% vs. 34% random) is carried forward as a Research Bench candidate, but no live execution occurs under this stack. The Wicker persona continues as desk PM writing plans for Null and Meridian.

Null — MNQ/MES (gap fade / FVG entry)

Setup is possible but uncertain — lower probability than yesterday.

Pre-filter summary:

  • VIX regime: 17.44 (LOW) — favorable. Null's backtest shows LOW VIX WR at 80.1%, the best of all three regimes.
  • Mega-cap earnings filter: CLEAR. GOOGL and TSLA report after today's close — they affect tomorrow's session, not today's. No top-10 QQQ constituents reported pre-market or after-hours yesterday. IBM is not a top-10 QQQ name.
  • Trend alignment filter: QQQ (708.78) below SMA20 (714.58) — 6th consecutive day. Only gap-up fades (short) are permitted. Gap-down fades (long) are counter-trend and blocked unless the gap is tiny (< 0.3× ATR).
  • Gap direction: The binding constraint. Nasdaq futures are modestly lower (-0.53%), suggesting a gap-down open. A gap-down with QQQ below SMA20 would be counter-trend for a short fade. However, if the gap is tiny (< 0.3× ATR = < 4.24 pts), the tiny-gap exception could relax the trend filter. A gap-down of 0.5-1% from 708.78 would be ~3.5-7 pts — borderline for the tiny exception.
  • Pre-market volume: The IBM -22% gap-down is a single-stock event, not broad NQ futures volume. The chip bounce stalling in Asia is orderly. Pre-market volume is unlikely to exceed 2× the 5-day average — this gate should pass.
  • Gap size concern: If a gap-up materializes (unlikely given current futures), the gap must fall within 0.1-0.7× ATR (1.41-9.90 pts). A gap-up would need QQQ to open between 710.19 and 718.68. Given the pre-earnings character and stalling Asian bounce, a gap-up of this magnitude is improbable.

Most likely scenario: A small gap-down (1-4 pts, ~0.07-0.28× ATR). This would be a tiny gap. The trend alignment filter normally blocks gap-down fades when below SMA20, but the tiny-gap exception (< 0.3× ATR) could relax it. Null would then enter LONG at FVG equilibrium after the open-drive and reversal impulse. This is a less clean setup than yesterday's clear gap-up direction.

Second scenario: A gap-up that stays within the 0.1-0.7× ATR band. The pre-earnings consolidation character makes this less likely than the gap-down scenario, but if it occurs, Null would enter short at FVG equilibrium — a clean setup with trend alignment.

p_trade: 0.25 — the structural alignment is mixed. VIX is favorable and the mega-cap filter is clear, but the gap direction is uncertain and the trend alignment filter creates a binding constraint. The IBM gap-down is a wildcard that could affect the broader tech tape. 0.25 reflects genuine uncertainty, not pessimism.

Meridian — QQQ/SPY (bearish prior_high sweep + RSI(2) + ADX band)

Setup is possible — structurally similar to yesterday but with less conviction.

Pre-session check (per instrument):

  • Vol regime check: PASS — QQQ prior range (702.81-710.04 = 7.23 pts = 0.51× ATR) and SPY prior range (744.25-749.03 = 4.78 pts = 0.66× ATR) are both well below the 1.25× threshold. Clean.
  • ADX regime check: The key unknown. Yesterday's chip bounce (QQQ +2.35%) was a strong directional session. If ADX remained elevated from the prior selloff, it may still be above 32. However, the bounce was a recovery day, not a continuation of the selloff, so ADX may have settled. VIX at 17.44 (LOW) supports lower ADX. The ADX band (18-32) is plausible but not certain.
  • Prior_high levels: QQQ prior high (710.04) is 1.26 pts above the prior close (708.78). SPY prior high (749.03) is 0.88 pts above the prior close (748.15). Both are close enough to the close that even a modest intraday push could sweep them — this is favorable for Meridian's setup geometry.

The pre-earnings character is the binding constraint. A pre-earnings consolidation day typically lacks the directional conviction to push price through prior highs with RSI(2) exhaustion. The session is more likely to be range-bound. However, the chip bounce from yesterday provides a structural tailwind: if the bounce has follow-through, even modest, it could push QQQ from 708.78 to 710.04+ and SPY from 748.15 to 749.03+.

Yesterday's (2026-07-21) data point: QQQ was blocked by ADX (prior high was 705.78, close was 695.97 — a 10-pt gap between close and prior high, making the sweep structurally improbable). SPY had a sweep chain form but RSI(2) rejected (max 4.5 vs. 88 threshold — the bounce was too moderate). Today's levels (QQQ prior high 710.04 vs. close 708.78, SPY prior high 749.03 vs. close 748.15) are much closer to the close — the geometry is substantially better.

Key concern — the IBM gap-down: A -22% move in a Dow component during pre-market could create a risk-off tone that keeps the tech tape heavy. If the broader market is cautious ahead of GOOGL/TSLA, the upside push to sweep prior highs may not materialize. The pre-earnings character favors range-bound, not sweep-driven.

p_trade: 0.25 — the level geometry is favorable (close-to-prior-high distances are the smallest in over a week), but the pre-earnings consolidation character reduces the probability of a clean directional sweep with RSI exhaustion. ADX is the binding technical gate. Same probability as yesterday (0.30 yesterday) adjusted down slightly for the pre-earnings + IBM gap-down headwinds.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-07-22 07:30 ET
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • Wicker's own strategy: RETIRED (2026-07-14 WS2c Tier-2 NO-GO) — no plan section written; p_trade forced to 0.0
Trades

No trades taken.

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