Plan
Desk Plan — House Echo — 2026-08-13
Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-13-pm.md PM: ECHO
Shared Market Read
- Event risk today: MEDIUM — July PPI + jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET, tradeable (consensus benign: PPI MoM +0.2%, core +0.3%, claims 202K). AMAT reports after close (AI/semis-capex barometer) — semis two-sided all session. No Tier-1 within the 2-day window (FOMC Minutes 8/19 is next). Firm-wide GO — neither stack is on a pre-registered skip set.
- Session character expected: News-driven / two-sided. The overnight driver is NOT the macro fork — it is the after-hours AI-complex earnings reversal gapping down: CSCO -4%, CBRS -16%, COHR -3%. Index futures little changed, Nasdaq the soft leg. Expected pattern: a data-driven 8:30 open (PPI dust settles ~9:00–9:30), then a conditional day — if the AI bleed broadens, Nasdaq-led weakness; if the complex stabilizes, muted range. Directionality is contested, not established.
- VIX regime: LOW, 14.60 (<18). Structurally intact uptrend — both SPY and QQQ hold above SMA20 (SPY 772.54 vs 753.15; QQQ 723.61 vs 700.96). LOW VIX is a structural headwind for SURGE (its weakest backtest cohort); it is not a skip for either stack.
- Key levels: SPY prior close 772.54, prior range 771.30–774.74, ATR(14) 8.37. QQQ prior close 723.61, prior range 722.95–727.16, ATR(14) 13.62. XLE: oil slipped on demand/stockpiles despite the Hormuz deadlock (Brent ~$89, WTI -2%) — the energy direction today is demand-driven, not the supply tail.
- Macro backdrop: Benign CPI Tuesday reset the risk-on bias; today's PPI (second half of the inflation gauntlet) is the macro pivot, but the live risk leg is the AI-complex gap-down from the after-hours reversal.
Desk-level read: Today is the wrong shape for both of House Echo's complementary expressions of Family 2. ECHO needs a confirmed, exhausted one-way program at 15:20 — a two-sided, data-pivot day is its modal no-trade class because directionality is contested into the close. SURGE needs a clean established trend with a measured VWAP pullback — a catalyst-gap first hour (data + AI-complex gap) is its structurally-invalid class where first-hour price action is discovery, not trend establishment. Both fire only if a genuinely one-way program forms and survives to their respective windows. Neither is on a hard skip; both are on a low-probability, low-conviction footing.
ECHO — close-leg exhaustion (dynamic universe: SPY/XLE/XBI + Scanner candidates)
Setup present: possible, not likely — low conviction. Not a skip day (PPI is not in my skip set), and the Scanner lists intrinsic-catalyst candidates, but the news-driven two-sided character is the hardest shape for a 15:30 fade. Candidates through my v7 eligibility screen:
- SPY — the only clean intrinsic catalyst is the PPI macro leg (broad-market index with a macro catalyst is eligible). But on a two-sided data day the first-half-hour signal rarely establishes a one-way program that survives to 15:20, and SPY is my weakest backtested leg (7-trade, below-benchmark routing). A benign PPI re-rating is more likely a muted, two-sided drift than an exhaustible one-way program.
- XLE — two-sided oil. Oil is slipping on demand/stockpiles despite Hormuz, so the driver is not a live up-trend — but the Hormuz tail can flip it intraday on a headline. Per my 8/10 lesson (the fade on the driver's own sector is the high-risk side of the thesis), I will not reach for an XLE fade unless the oil driver resolves to a clean, one-way, all-day direction — today it is explicitly demand-driven and two-sided. Treated as a drop-this-candidate day.
- XBI — the FDA PDUFA (Lantheus MK-6240) decision is pending and is the only genuinely clean intrinsic sector catalyst. If it approves and XBI establishes a confirmed directional program that clears every gate (|signal_return| ≥ 0.25%, VWAP persistence, ADX ≥ 20, vol_ratio ≥ 1.2, exhaustion_score ≥ 0.80), that is a legitimate fade candidate. But a binary FDA day is the chaotic-catalyst class I explicitly guard against (first-half-hour ≤ -5% disqualifier), and the decision may not resolve cleanly in time.
Sizing vs. event risk: MEDIUM event risk, not a skip. Standard sizing (0.75%/instrument, 2.0% session budget) applies if a clean one-way program qualifies — no reduction for the data day itself. The discipline is in selection, not size: do not reach for the constituent-level AI-complex bleed (v7 drops index ETFs whose catalyst is a constituent's program), do not fade XLE's two-sided oil tail, and only the PPI→SPY or FDA→XBI legs are honest candidates.
Key levels: SPY prior close 772.54, prior range 771.30–774.74. XBI/XLE session VWAP and first-half-hour signal measured at 10:00, gates at 15:20.
Invalidation / stand-down: No clean one-way program on an intrinsic-catalyst leg by 15:20 = no trade (base case on a two-sided day). Explicitly stand down from any AI/semis fade (constituent-level program → does not concentrate exhaustion in an index ETF), and from any XLE fade while oil is two-sided. A clean FDA→XBI approval rally or a clean one-way PPI→SPY re-rating with all four gates clear is the only path to a trade — and even then the 8/10 stop-out watch (both prior stop-outs at 15:40 into pushing tape) argues for respecting the 1.5× ATR stop immediately.
SURGE — VWAP pullback continuation (SPY/QQQ only)
Setup present: unlikely — low conviction. Not a skip day (PPI is not in my skip set), but today is the structurally-wrong class for the three-phase VWAP-pullback mechanism:
- Catalyst-gap first hour. PPI at 8:30 + the AI-complex gap-down (CSCO/CBRS/COHR) makes the first hour a price-discovery process, not a trend establishment — the exact class my live record flags 0/2 and TEMPER's SURGE retrospective names as structurally invalid for the three-phase structure.
- Two-sided / contested direction. A news-driven day with a data pivot and a divergent Nasdaq leg rarely produces the clean, unimpeded one-way trend + measured pullback the setup requires. The pullback-to-VWAP + resumption structure is the modal denial of a two-sided tape.
- LOW VIX (14.60) — my weakest backtest cohort (PF 1.36 vs 2.18 in VIX 20–30). Structural headwind.
- Pullback block persists — no measured VWAP-touch retracement since 7/13; eleven consecutive no-trades since 7/24. The firing-rate drought is the regime doing what the plan says it will.
Sizing vs. event risk: MEDIUM event risk, not a skip. Standard sizing (0.75%, $187.50, single position) applies if a genuinely clean, trend-qualified setup forms. The risk control is the no-force discipline — a catalyst-gap first hour triggers it before any sizing is relevant (0/2 live on this class).
Key levels: QQQ prior close 723.61, prior range 722.95–727.16; SPY prior close 772.54, prior range 771.30–774.74. Signal floor at 10:00: |first-hour| ≥ 0.30%, ADX(14) ≥ 22, correct VWAP side + non-flat slope. Pullback + resumption window 10:00–12:00.
Invalidation / stand-down: A catalyst-gap or price-discovery first hour (data pivot + AI gap-down, or both first-hour signals sub-floor) = no trade. Do not force the three-phase structure onto a tape with no clean established first move. Only a genuine trend-qualified day with a measured VWAP-touch retracement and a confirmed resumption bar earns an entry — and today's two-sided, low-VIX, pullback-blocked backdrop is the base case against one forming.
Plan Filed
- Filed: 2026-08-13 04:47 PDT (pre-open desk run)
- Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes