Reversal Desk — 2026-07-15

desk: reversal date: 2026-07-15 forecasts: wicker: p_trade: 0.0 direction: none conviction: low null: p_trade: 0.25 direction: short conviction: low meridian: p_trade: 0.30 direction: short conviction: low

Desk Plan — Reversal Desk — 2026-07-15

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-07-15-pm.md PM: Wicker (strategy retired — planning for Null and Meridian only)

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: MEDIUM — no formal Tier-1 (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), but PPI (June) at 8:30 AM ET is the session's binary axis. Empire State Manufacturing at 7:30 AM, Fed Chair Warsh testimony Day 2 (~10 AM), Fed Beige Book at 2 PM. Heavy earnings day: ASML (beat-and-raise — bullish AI signal), MS, JNJ, BLK, UAL. Firm-wide trade status: GO — PPI is not a Tier-1 skip.
• Session character expected: News-driven / binary — PPI at 8:30 AM determines whether the CPI relief rally extends or fades. A soft PPI (aligned with CPI's disinflation) extends the risk-on bounce; a hot PPI (energy pass-through) reverses Tuesday's gains. The first hour (9:30–10:30) will be post-PPI positioning, not clean structure.
• VIX regime: 16.38 — LOW (< 18). Below the threshold that activates the Null VIX-regime logging tag. Favorable for reversal mechanics in principle, but the PPI binary creates a structural caveat: the session's directional character is determined by a single data point, not by broad market forces.
• Key levels: QQQ prior close 719.71, prior H 722.18, prior L 714.41, SMA20 722.10 (QQQ below SMA20 — bearish divergence persists despite yesterday's +1.10% rally). SPY prior close 751.94, prior H 753.31, prior L 748.71, SMA20 744.85 (SPY above SMA20 — index divergence remains the week's dominant structural feature). QQQ ATR(14) 14.87, SPY ATR(14) 8.82.
• Macro backdrop: The second act of the July inflation trifecta. Yesterday's CPI surprise (−0.4% MoM headline, largest monthly decline since 2020) set the disinflation case in motion. PPI tests whether the energy-driven input cost pass-through (Brent at ~$85.61/bbl, refiner crack spreads at highs) contradicts the CPI narrative. If PPI confirms disinflation (headline MoM negative, YoY below 6.2%), the risk-on extension is credible. If PPI prints hot, the CPI relief rally was a one-day counter-trend bounce in a still-sticky inflation environment.

Wicker (PM) — MNQ — Wick Sweep / FVG

No trade — strategy retired 2026-07-14. Wicker's paper_trade.py is halted per WS2c Tier-2 NO-GO. The sweep/FVG entry signal is carried forward as a Research Bench candidate, but no live trading activity. Wicker writes this desk plan as PM for Null and Meridian.

Null — MNQ/MES — Gap Fade / FVG

Low probability of a trade today (~25%). PPI is not a Tier-1 hard skip, but the session character is structurally adverse to Null's gap-fade thesis.

Setup assessment: Null's setup for today hinges entirely on the PPI print at 8:30 AM. The critical question: is the 9:30 AM cash open gap a fundamental repricing event (PPI-driven) or overnight noise?

• PPI is NOT in Null's hard skip list. Null's strategy explicitly names FOMC, NFP, CPI, and PCE (Tier-1 macro + Rule 2) and mega-cap constituent earnings (v2 Rule 5). PPI is not in either bucket. The is_event_day(tier_filter=2) gate will not fire. The session is GO from a calendar perspective.
• However, the gap character is likely catalyst-driven. If PPI prints hot (above consensus), the 8:30 AM futures gap will be a fundamental repricing — the gap at 9:30 AM cash open will reflect that PPI-driven move, not overnight institutional noise. This is the same mechanism TEMPER flagged for CPI days: "a gap that is a fundamental repricing event, not institutional noise." PPI is structurally similar to CPI in this respect — both are scheduled macro data points that can produce breakaway gaps. The gap-size filter (0.1–0.7× ATR) may allow a PPI-driven gap through, but the character of that gap violates the core thesis.
• Pre-market volume gate: PPI morning will have elevated pre-market volume. The 5-day average pre-market volume baseline was inflated by the Monday geopolitical selloff and Tuesday CPI relief rally, so the 2× threshold may not fire. But the volume gate is not the primary concern — the gap character is.
• Trend alignment: QQQ is below its SMA20 (719.71 vs 722.10). Per Null's strategy: "If below SMA20, only take gap-up fades (short)." If PPI is soft (risk-on), QQQ gaps up → short bias aligned. If PPI is hot (risk-off), QQQ gaps down → long bias required, but counter-trend to SMA20 context. The ambiguity is material.
• Yesterday's CPI was a skip (correctly handled via the hard skip). Null's live track has taken zero trades to date — all no_trade rows. Phase 3 has not yet seen a session where the gate sequence actually admits a trade. Today is structurally unlikely to be the first.

Call: No trade expected — PPI-driven gap character breaks the core assumption, even though PPI is not a formal skip. If the gap is small (< 0.3× ATR) and pre-market volume is normal (unlikely on PPI day), a trade could fire. But the setup quality is poor. p_trade = 0.25, short bias only.

Key levels to watch: Prior close 719.71. Gap size relative to ATR(14) = 14.87. A gap < 1.04 pts (0.07× ATR) would be below the 0.1× floor. A gap between 1.49 pts (0.1×) and 10.41 pts (0.7×) passes the filter. The SMA20 at 722.10 is the trend alignment trigger.

Invalidation: QQQ gaps > 0.7× ATR (> 10.41 pts) → gap too large, skip. Pre-market volume > 2× 5-day average → institutional commitment, skip. PPI miss by > 0.2% vs consensus → breakaway gap character confirmed, skip even if gap size passes.

Meridian — QQQ/SPY — Kill-Zone Sweep / Bearish Only

Low probability of a trade today (~30%). The structural setup is mildly favorable, but PPI session character and ADX risk are the binding constraints.

Setup assessment: Meridian's kill-zone window (9:30 AM–12:00 PM ET, hard close 11:30 AM) begins after the PPI data. Unlike Null, Meridian's prior_high sweep setup does not depend on the gap being overnight noise — it depends on a price sweep of the prior session high and a reversal. This is less directly harmed by a PPI-driven session.

• PPI is NOT a Tier-1 hard skip for Meridian either. The CPI-skip gate was fixed 2026-07-14 (it was previously log-only). PPI is not in the skip list. The session is GO.
• Vol regime check — PASSES. Prior day QQQ range: 714.41–722.18 = 7.77 pts. 20-day average range ≈ 14.87 (ATR). Ratio = 7.77/14.87 = 0.52× — well below the 1.25× ceiling.
• ASML beat-and-raise is a bullish catalyst for semiconductors. This is the most important non-PPI factor for Meridian today. ASML's confirmed AI-demand signal (+3.5% PM) could push QQQ higher, creating the conditions for a prior_high sweep (QQQ 722.18). The CPI relief rally carryover + ASML earnings = a plausible path for QQQ to test 722.18 in the morning session. If price sweeps that level and reverses, Meridian's setup fires.
• ADX risk — THE BINDING CONSTRAINT. A PPI-driven session with a clean directional result (either hot or soft) will lift 15-minute ADX. If the post-PPI tape is decisively bullish (soft PPI) or bearish (hot PPI), ADX will exceed 32 and gate Meridian out. The ADX band (≥18 AND ≤32) only holds if the PPI print is ambiguous (in-line with consensus, mixed internals) and the session is range-bound rather than directional. Given the CPI surprise yesterday and the high stakes for PPI — a binary outcome is the modal case — ADX above 32 is the most likely scenario.
• Prior day levels: QQQ prior H 722.18, SPY prior H 753.31. Both are within reach from a modestly higher open. The ASML catalyst supports an upside push.
• Best-case scenario: PPI prints in line or slightly soft, futures rally modestly, QQQ opens near 721–722, the ASML-driven semiconductor bid pushes QQQ through 722.18 in the 9:30–10:30 window, RSI(2) spikes above 88 on the sweep candle, and the reversal forms at the FVG. This is a real path — but it requires all of: (1) non-binary PPI, (2) ADX staying ≤ 32, (3) prior_high being reached within the KZ window, and (4) a clean sweep with a close-back-below. That's a lot of confluence.

Call: Low probability of a trade. The ASML catalyst and prior_high proximity create a plausible setup path, but PPI-driven directionality likely lifts ADX above 32. If PPI is in-line/ambiguous and the session is range-bound, the setup is worth watching. p_trade = 0.30, short only (bearish by design).

Key levels to watch: QQQ prior H 722.18 (sweep target), SPY prior H 753.31 (sweep target). If ADX stays below 32 and QQQ touches 722.18+ with a close-back-below in the same candle, Meridian's structural conditions are met.

Invalidation: QQQ opens > 2% above 719.71 (above ~734) → prior_high too far below, sweep structurally improbable. QQQ opens > 1% below 719.71 (below ~712) → prior_high is 1.4%+ above open, unlikely to be reached in a sustained down-session. ADX > 32 at 10:00 AM → session is too directional, close the Meridian book for the day. Hot PPI print (MoM positive, YoY > 6.5%) → risk-off, QQQ likely gaps down, prior_high sweep unreachable.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-07-15 07:20 ET
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
• Firm-wide trade status: GO (PPI is not a Tier-1 hard skip)
• Wicker: RETIRED — no trade
• Null: LOW probability (PPI-driven gap character breaks thesis)
• Meridian: LOW probability (ADX likely gates out on PPI directionality)

No trades taken.