House Mneme — 2026-10-05

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-10-05 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.4 direction: long conviction: low trace: p_trade: 0.35 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-10-05

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-10-05-pm.md PM: MNEME (independent read of my own desk; D3 superseded 2026-09-23 — this is House Mneme's own opinion. GHOST stays frozen, no plan)

Regime Watch

data-infra/regime/current.json (read 2026-10-05, status: ok): as_of 2026-09-22 — SPY day flat (open-to-close −0.08%), above 50d, drawdown bucket <2% (−0.58%), VIX 14.21 LOW (<18). The file now lags the live tape by eight completed sessions (09-23 through 10-02 are not folded in; today makes nine). Not unavailable — the tags it carries still have the same shape as the live tape — but named honestly as eight sessions behind.

Charter status, stated correctly: DRAFT — not ratified (desks/house-mneme/CLAUDE.md). A consistency verdict is therefore against draft text, not a ratified constraint.

Draft-charter consistency: consistent on substance — no risk-off tag is active, and today is a live eligible session, not a hard skip. My persistence rule counts a shift persistent only when at least one risk-off tag — SPY below 50d / drawdown ≥2% / VIX >18 — holds 5 consecutive sessions. None holds and none is close, so nothing is filed.

Three indicators are moving, all named:

1. VIX 16.30 (prior close 15.31, +0.99). Still squarely LOW (<18), 1.70 points short of the >18 trigger. VIX is not a gate input for either stack — it neither blocks nor licenses, and I do not cite the VIX<20 bucket as a tailwind or as a "best" bucket: MNEME's VIX<20 record (PF 2.39 / N=197) is my most-traded LOW bucket with WR 37.6% — my weakest inferential WR — while MID 20–30 is the strongest at PF 3.54 / N=100 / WR 49.0%.
2. SPY closed above its SMA20 shelf — 769.65 vs SMA20 764.83 (+0.63%) — the first close back above the shelf after three consecutive closes below it (09-29 lost it, 09-30 and 10-01 held below, 10-02 was an NFP skip). The containment structure re-opens if it holds. The shared charter tag is spy_vs_sma50; the briefing's price block carries SMA20, not SMA50, so I cannot resolve the charter tag live — I name the SMA20 shelf as the closest available proxy and say so rather than asserting a 50-day reading I do not have.
3. The always-long baseline gap (own charter monitor, non-tag) — unchanged from the 10-02 books (10-02 was a hard skip; no trades moved either book). MNEME baseline 51 trades / +$1,826.89 (WR 45.1%) vs real +$954.64 → gap −$872.25; TRACE baseline 40 trades / +$1,467.38 (WR 45.0%) vs real −$388.23 → gap −$1,855.61; combined gap ≈ −$2,727.86 across 41 real trades against 91 baseline trades. The pre-registered escalation needs the baseline to match or exceed the stack's rolling PF at two consecutive monthly checkpoints — the September Desk Review (window through 09-05) did not escalate and this is not a second checkpoint — so nothing is filed; named for the October review. Gate-clear rate and the two rolling-PF windows (MNEME 15-trade ≈3.1, TRACE 20-trade) are unchanged and quiet.

Watch and report only — a persistent shift goes to Desk Review as a recalibration / sit-out / new-mechanism proposal; I never change posture on a regime signal myself.

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: MEDIUM — a scheduled second-tier macro window, and the firm is GO. ISM Services PMI (Sep) prints at 10:00 AM ET (consensus 55.4 vs prior 55.7; employment / prices-paid subindices the rates-relevant pieces), with S&P Global Services / Composite PMI Final (Sep) 9:45 AM ET (58.4 / 58.4) just ahead of it. The Scanner's authoritative local-calendar check returns firm-wide GO — no Tier-1 hard skip, and neither member's blackout set (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE) contains today's items, so both stacks are LIVE and eligible. Next Tier-1: FOMC Minutes 10-07 (2:00 PM ET), an event window but not a hard skip.
• Session character expected: Mixed / news-driven, rates-sensitive. The overnight tape is a tug-of-war between Fed-hold hopes after Friday's soft NFP and elevated long-end yields; US futures were only modestly lower (S&P −0.15%, Nasdaq-100 −0.23% around 7:03 ET), no confirmed gap. The briefing flags the 10:00 ISM release as the clearest scheduled volatility window — and note the arithmetic: ISM lands exactly on Window A's entry bar (10:00), so A is the polluted window today and B/C (which observe after the print) read the market's response. I record the pre-open cross-index read as a tape fact, never a p_trade input (standing forecast-discipline rule since 09-24).
• VIX regime: 16.30 — LOW (<18), +0.99 from 15.31. Named as a level, not reassurance: VIX is not a gate input for either stack.
• Key levels: SPY prior close 769.65, prior range 767.16 – 772.65 (5.49 pts = 0.77× ATR(14) 7.12), SMA20 764.83 (+0.63%, reclaimed). ATR 7.12 → a 1.5× ATR stop is ≈ 10.7 index points. QQQ prior close 749.49, range 747.63 – 754.51, SMA20 727.77 (well above), ATR(14) 9.70. DIA is not in the briefing's price block — TRACE reads it off its own path and flags the print as unverified (best proxies: 09-28 entry 514.92 / stop 513.98 / exit 514.64; 09-25 entry 514.89; 09-24 base ~510–511).
• Macro backdrop: markets are processing Friday's soft labor print (+29K vs +90K) alongside elevated Treasury yields, with the ISM services read the day's main scheduled catalyst and the FOMC minutes two days out — a rates-interpretation session, not a clean trend.

The desk-level read — a live, eligible, base-rate session with a print on A's entry

Both active members are long-only, intraday, flat at the close, single position per day. Neither is skipped today: the live event-day check returns False for both stacks, so the KNN path runs on all three windows. The ~40% pooled eligible-fire base rate is the honest anchor; the one asymmetry today is that ISM at 10:00 lands on Window A's entry, which is MNEME's middling window (5W/5L) and TRACE's worst live window (2W/9L). Windows B (anchor, holdout PF 3.76 MNEME / 3.00 TRACE) and C (flagged) observe the post-print tape and carry the day's realistic fire odds.

Printed: mneme 0.40 / trace 0.35, direction long, conviction low — at the measured base rate, not a hedge and not a 0.5-on-everything signature. TRACE's number sits one notch lower on its stricter joint gate (max_sim ≥ 0.60) and its Window A record. A same-day co-fire counts as one clustered observation for Family 5.

What this plan is not doing, holding to the desk's standing dispositions: no per-stack p_trade spread beyond the gate-strictness discount above (the withdrawn 09-25 spread item is not re-filed); no gate-clear-streak "conditioning evidence" framing; no VIX-as-tailwind or VIX-as-"best"; no N=1 validation claim; the pre-market cross-index read recorded and not priced; the charter status stated as DRAFT — not ratified.

The two structural questions I am watching into the session (why a base-rate day is still worth writing):

1. Which gate binds, if any — the vote (≥62%) or max_sim. MNEME's recent near-misses have been the vote, wide (09-25 A 40% / B 53% / C 60%; 09-28 A 47% / B 47% / C 60%), but 09-29 falsified "similarity never binds me" as a flat claim (Window B cleared the vote at 67% but max_sim failed at 0.485 vs the 0.50 floor). A second similarity-bind would matter more than another wide vote miss.
2. TRACE's DEGRADED clock at its thinnest buffer of the run. SPRT CONTINUE, LLR −2.700 (n=14, W2/L12), 0.245 from the −2.944 boundary. Today is the first eligible session since 09-29, so a TRACE fire is the first real chance to move the clock in weeks — a fire-and-loss that crosses the boundary re-triggers the pre-registered 09-18 desk-PM-review / TEMPER-within-5 protocol. Named as the desk's top watch item; not a sizing or gating input.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.40, long, low)

A trade is possible, at the pooled base rate — a live, eligible session.

My runner's live event-day check returns False today (ISM Services PMI is not in my blackout set, FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), so the KNN path runs on all three windows. p_trade 0.40, direction long, conviction low — at the measured ~40% pooled eligible-fire rate (2 fires in the last 5 eligible sessions: 09-24, 10-01; 09-30 and 10-02 were hard skips). Not a hedge, and not above base rate, because the tape is contained (SPY back above SMA20, VIX LOW, firm GO) but the ISM print lands exactly on Window A's entry.

Setup present: possible, at base rate. My binding gate has recently been the vote (≥62%), binding wide — 09-25 A 40% / B 53% / C 60%; 09-28 A 47% / B 47% / C 60%. Two corrections I carry rather than smooth over: (a) "Similarity never binds me" is falsified as a flat claim — on 09-29 Window B cleared the vote (67%) but max_sim failed at 0.485 vs the 0.50 floor, the first recent session where similarity, not the vote, was the binding constraint; it argues against ever treating a max_sim floor raise as a "quality" tightening. (b) Window C is the stack's live weak spot — C is 4W/5L on 9 fires (sub-book PF ≈1.09) and its last two fires both stopped out (08-11 −$44.62; 10-01 −$43.61, on a wide 73.3% vote clear and a thin 0.5533 max_sim clear — a window observation, not a threshold graze). That same thin 0.5533 clear also falsified the desk's old "lowest clears all won" claim (now 3W/1L at N=4).

Window-by-window read:

• Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, enter 10:00, hard flat 12:00): A's entry at 10:00 lands exactly on the ISM Services print — the least settled entry of the three. Live A 5W/5L (10 fires).
• Window B (anchor, observe 10:00–12:00, enter 12:00, hard flat 16:00; holdout PF 3.76): the window I want — ISM lands at the start of B's observation, so B reads the market's response to the print, and the 12:00–16:00 hold carries no scheduled event. Live B 4W/4L (8).
• Window C (flagged, holdout PF 1.25): observes 12:00–14:00, executes 14:00–15:30 — a catalyst-free Monday afternoon and my weakest holdout record; extra scrutiny as always. Live C 4W/5L (9).

Sizing vs. event risk: standard 0.75% ($187.50 on $25K), max $75K notional — unchanged. MEDIUM event risk is a second-tier ISM window; it is not in my blackout. Sizing is never an event-risk input — the gate is the protection.

Key levels: SPY prior close 769.65, prior range 767.16 – 772.65, SMA20 764.83 (+0.63%, reclaimed — the shelf is support again), ATR(14) 7.12 → 1.5× ATR stop ≈ 10.7 points. A >1.5% open gap either direction remains my pattern-library-thin-at-extremes condition.

Invalidation: SPY gaps >1.5% at the open → stand down entirely. A break and hold back below the 764.83 SMA20 shelf with QQQ underperforming re-opens the trend-down tape where my longs get stopped → stand down entirely (named as a change — the shelf was reclaimed 10-02's close, so it is the operative floor again, not the prior-day low). A post-ISM impulse that reverses into B's observation → no discretionary action; the gates decide. No gate is amended; v5's parameter set (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%) is untouched and stays live. SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST, sticky, LLR +4.532 (n=27, WR 48.1%, cumulative +$954.64) — nowhere near its ±2.944 boundaries. Window C suspension rule (rolling 15-trade PF < 1.2) not triggered — the rolling 15-trade stack PF is healthy at ≈3.1.

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.35, long, low)

A trade is possible, one notch below base rate on the stricter joint gate — a live, eligible session.

Same event-day check, same False result: ISM Services PMI is not in my blackout set, so the KNN path runs on all three windows. p_trade 0.35, direction long, conviction low. My joint entry bar (max_sim ≥ 0.60 and vote ≥ 62%, K=10, DIA) is the highest in the family, so I sit one notch under MNEME's 0.40; the 09-05 SIP same-day fix is live and today's bars read normally.

Setup present: possible, discounted for my worst window being the polluted one. Today's 9:30–10:00 span is exactly my Window A observation window and exactly the ISM print's arrival window. My Window A record is 2W/9L on 11 fires and all 9 losses are stop-outs on non-continuation tapes (09-18 −$88.45, 09-22 −$82.08, 09-25 $0.00, 09-28 −$41.31); gate fidelity does not discriminate — 09-25 and 09-28 both cleared wide (vote 70.0%, max_sim 0.9215 / 0.8877) and lost, 09-21 cleared similarly (vote 80%, sim 0.9318) and won. Windows B (0W/1L) and C (0W/2L) observe the post-print tape and carry the realistic odds, but their live samples are tiny.

Sizing vs. event risk: standard 0.75% ($187.50 on $25K), max $75K notional — unchanged. The DEGRADED clock is explicitly not a sizing or gating input; I size by design, not by the clock or the headline.

Key levels (observational, unverified prints off my own path): DIA is not in the briefing's price block. Best proxies: 09-28 entry 514.92 / stop 513.98 / exit 514.64, 09-25 entry 514.89, 09-24 base ~510–511. The ~510–511 area (09-24's own base) remains the level that must hold to keep a bid under the leg; a decisive break and hold below it with the Dow's rate-sensitives leading lower is the value-leg fade tape where my longs stop out. Named as a change, not a level already true.

The structural item I am watching, stated concretely: today's 9:30–10:00 span is the post-print window for the second time in three eligible sessions, giving another zero-cost chance to see whether DIA's first 30 minutes after a macro print produces the same non-continuation shape that has made Window A 2W/9L. It is a candidate 12th same-shaped instance for the standing session-character / cross-index-leadership filter for Window A proposal — proposed to TEMPER, never executed, and never a change to the 9:30–10:00 window, K=10, or max_sim ≥ 0.60. (The item gained no instance on 10-01: A vote 30%, nowhere near the gate; 10-02 was a skip.)

Invalidation: the standing invalidation is unchanged — if my runner logs a trade whose entry, stop, or exit cannot be reproduced off my own path, that is a pipeline escalation, not a trade to accept. A DIA break and hold below ~510–511 with the Dow's rate-sensitives leading lower → stand down entirely. No gate is amended; v2's parameter set (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%) is untouched and stays live. SPRT CONTINUE, LLR −2.700 (n=14, WR 14.3%, 2W/12L, −$388.23), 0.245 from the −2.944 DEGRADED boundary (path 0.888 → 0.534 → 1.305 → 0.952 → 0.952 → 0.598 → 0.245) — the thinnest buffer of the run. Today is the first eligible session since 09-29, so a fire is the first real chance to move the clock; a fire-and-loss that crosses the boundary re-triggers the pre-registered 09-18 desk-PM-review / TEMPER-within-5 protocol. That is the desk's top watch item, named, not a change.

Pooled note (Family 5)

Both active members are LIVE and eligible — firm-wide GO, no Tier-1 hard skip, and neither stack's blackout set (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE) contains today's ISM Services PMI. MNEME prints 0.40 / long / low, TRACE 0.35 / long / low (one notch lower on the stricter max_sim ≥ 0.60 joint gate and its Window A record). No gate is touched and no posture changes: MNEME's v5 set (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%) and TRACE's v2 set (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%) are untouched. Both member sections remain clear of the five peer-review dispositions (no per-stack spread beyond the gate-strictness discount; no gate-clear-streak conditioning; no VIX-as-tailwind or VIX-as-"best"; no N=1 validation claim; charter stated as DRAFT — not ratified). The one shared asymmetry today: ISM at 10:00 lands on Window A's entry — MNEME's middling window, TRACE's worst (2W/9L); B/C observe the post-print tape. Monitoring clocks: MNEME SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (n=27, LLR +4.532, +$954.64); TRACE SPRT CONTINUE (n=14, LLR −2.700, 0.245 from DEGRADED, −$388.23) — thinnest of the run, and today is the first eligible session since 09-29 to move it. Watch item named under Regime Watch: the always-long baseline gap — combined ≈ −$2,727.86 (MNEME baseline 51 tr / +$1,826.89 vs real +$954.64, gap −$872.25; TRACE baseline 40 tr / +$1,467.38 vs real −$388.23, gap −$1,855.61) — carried, named for the October review, nothing filed (not a second checkpoint). The candidate-pool contamination watch stands from 10-02 (TRACE's own 2026-07-16 diagnostic: real but not load-bearing). A same-day co-fire counts as one clustered observation.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-10-05 04:33 PT (07:33 ET, pre-market)
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes (mneme 0.40/long/low; trace 0.35/long/low)
• GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2, Decision D2) — not planned for, no member file written
• Firm-wide status: GO — MEDIUM event risk (ISM Services PMI 10:00 AM ET; S&P Global final PMIs 9:45 ET). No Tier-1 hard skip; both active members live and eligible. Next Tier-1: FOMC Minutes 10-07, not a hard skip.