desk: house-mneme date: 2026-09-25 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.45 direction: long conviction: med trace: p_trade: 0.42 direction: long conviction: low
Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-25-pm.md PM: MNEME (independent read of my own desk; D3 superseded 2026-09-23, but this plan is House Mneme's own opinion. GHOST stays frozen, no plan)
data-infra/regime/current.json (read 2026-09-25, status: ok): as_of 2026-09-22 — SPY day flat (open-to-close −0.08%), above 50d, drawdown bucket <2% (−0.58%), VIX 14.21 LOW (<18). The file now lags the live tape by three sessions (09-23, 09-24, and today are not folded in). Not unavailable — the tags it does carry are the same shape as the live tape — but named honestly as three sessions behind.
Charter consistency: consistent — no risk-off tag active, and today's shape is the favorable side of the charter. My ## Regime Charter persistence rule (desk CLAUDE.md) counts a shift persistent only when at least one risk-off tag — SPY below 50d / drawdown ≥2% / VIX >18 — holds 5 consecutive sessions. None does, and none is close.
Two charter indicators are moving, and I name both:
spy_vs_sma50 cushion is thin. SPY closed 767.29 against SMA20 765.33 — only +0.26% above, the thinnest of the run (09-23 was +1.08%, 09-24 +0.28%). The 50-day tag is above 50d and stays there, but one ordinary down day flips the shorter cushion; that is the tag I would expect to move first if the rates/oil squeeze re-arms.Own charter indicators (non-tag), named because they are mine to watch: the always-long baseline gap has opened materially over the last five sessions — 09-18 → 09-24: MNEME real −$43.11 vs baseline +$520.57; TRACE real +$15.07 vs baseline +$516.30. That is the Family 5 monitor the charter says to watch, and it is currently running against the KNN day-selection layer. It is 5 sessions, not a checkpoint: the pre-registered escalation needs the baseline to match or exceed the stack's rolling PF at two consecutive monthly checkpoints, so nothing is filed. Gate-clear rate and the two rolling-PF windows (MNEME 15-trade, TRACE 20-trade) are unchanged and quiet.
Today's plan is consistent with the charter: orderly, LOW-VIX, flat-to-modestly-higher contained open — the first session this week whose shape matches the charter's stated where I expect to make money regime rather than the down-gap/headline-capped shape of 09-23/09-24. I price that as a modest tailwind to fire probability, not as a regime shift. Watch and report only — a persistent shift goes to Desk Review as a recalibration / sit-out / new-mechanism proposal; I never change posture on a regime signal myself.
Both active members are long-only, intraday, flat at the close. Today's pre-market shape — flat-to-modestly-higher, LOW VIX and falling, contained at normal ATR, no scheduled binary — is a better shape for a long-only KNN stack than the down-gap, headline-capped opens of 09-23 and 09-24, because it gives the vote a cleaner directional structure to read. That is the desk's shared read.
Base rate, computed from the actual logs (not cited from memory): over the last 21 sessions (08-25 → 09-23) each stack logged 5 fires / ~16 eligible sessions ≈ 31%; over the last 8 eligible sessions (09-14 → 09-24) each stack fired 3 of 8 = 37.5% (MNEME: 09-18, 09-22, 09-24; TRACE: 09-18, 09-21, 09-22). Per the 2026-09-23 peer review (House Echo → House Mneme, acted) I do not treat a run of gate clears as conditioning evidence, and per my own 09-24 reflection I book the opposite defect as the desk's standing plan-layer error: MNEME has systematically under-forecast its GO/LOW-VIX fire rate three times (09-18 0.20→fired, Brier 0.64; 09-22 0.30→fired, 0.49; 09-24 0.30→fired, 0.49), and its own ordering across 09-23/09-24 was backwards (0.35 no-fire, then 0.30 fire). The honest posterior for a no-Tier-1 / LOW-VIX / GO tape is ≈ 0.40–0.45, and today's tape shape is the favorable end of that sample.
Net: neither stack is structurally incompatible with today — no hard skip, LOW VIX, GO — and today's shape argues up, not down, from the raw base rate. mneme 0.45 / trace 0.42, both long, both above the raw 31–37.5% base rate by the tape-shape nudge, and deliberately above the sub-0.35 prints that the desk's own reflection identified as under-forecasts. A same-day co-fire counts as one clustered observation for Family 5.
Live, eligible, no hard skip — and today is finally my charter's own shape. No hard skip (blackout = FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE; durable goods and Michigan are not on it); VIX 15.36 LOW is my best-backtested bucket. Setup present: yes, at base rate or slightly better. My binding gate is the vote, not similarity — that is the recurring shape of my near-misses (09-23: vote 47% in all three windows against 62%, with similarity clearing 0.50 comfortably at 0.911/0.683/0.644; similarity blocked me on essentially nothing this month). Today's tape is the one that makes a decisive up-vote possible: orderly, LOW VIX, modest up open, contained ATR — rather than yesterday's down-gap that had already been bought back before I got there.
Why 0.45 and not 0.30 again: the 09-24 loss was entry placement, not signal quality — my gates cleared comfortably there (vote 73.3%, max_sim 0.8498) and I bought 765.36 after the day's low (763.25) had printed at the open, then got clipped by an 11:05 dip and watched SPY close 3.3 points above my entry. On a modestly higher open that specific failure mode is less available to me. My realized eligible-session fire rate is 3/8 = 37.5% and my own reflection puts the honest no-Tier-1 posterior nearer 0.45–0.50; printing 0.30 a fourth time on a GO/LOW-VIX day would be the same under-forecast the desk has already booked. Conviction: med — this is the call I would stake more on than a typical day, because the anchor here is a measured base rate on a favorable tape, not a gate streak.
Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50 on $25K), max $75K notional — no adjustment. MEDIUM event risk here is an un-timeable headline, not a scheduled binary inside my windows, and the scheduled prints (8:30, 10:00) sit at or outside my observation spans; there is no event-risk reduction to make and no reason to inflate either. One position, strongest vote wins.
Key levels: SPY 767.29 prior close; prior range 763.25 – 768.94; SMA20 765.33 (thin cushion, +0.26%). Holding 763.25 keeps the containment structure and gives the vote room; a decisive break of 765.33 with a hot durable-goods print and the chip bid fading is the trend-down tape where longs get stopped, not faded. ATR(14) 6.70 → 1.5× ATR stop ≈ 10.0 points.
Invalidation: SPY gaps >1.5% at the open → stand down entirely. The 10-year accelerates through 5.25% intraday with the chip bid fading → stand down entirely (named as a change: yesterday's plan carried "10-yr takes out 5.00%", a level already true at that open — an inert trigger, and I am not repeating it). A rejection headline on the Iran/Hormuz offer that re-arms the oil/yield squeeze mid-session → no discretionary action; the gates decide and I stand down only on the two hard conditions above. No gate is amended; v5's parameter set (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%) is untouched and stays live. SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST, sticky, LLR +4.802 (n=26, WR 50.0%, cumulative +$998.25); unchanged by the 09-24 stop beyond its own information — nothing to escalate.
Live, eligible, no hard skip — DIA is the relative laggard index but I am not pricing that into the number. No hard skip; VIX 15.36 LOW is my best-backtested bucket (backtest PF 2.46, N=109); the 09-05 SIP same-day fix keeps full three-window reads. Setup present: possible, at base rate. My gates are both hard: max_sim ≥ 0.60 and vote ≥ 62%, and the two have bound in different windows on the last two sessions.
The 0.42 is a base-rate print, not a streak print — stated plainly, because the peer review demanded it. My Window A failure mode, as a base rate: Window A is 2W/7L on 9 live fires, and all 7 losses are stop-outs on non-continuation tapes — 09-18 stopped in 45 min, −$88.45; 09-22 stopped in 15 min, −$82.08 (my fastest Phase 3 stop); both wins held to flat (09-21 +$185.60). Fidelity does not discriminate: 09-21 (vote 80% / sim 0.9318) held; 09-22 (vote 80% / sim 0.9125) stopped in 15 minutes. My recent eligible-session fire rate is 3/8 = 37.5%, and today's tape shape — orderly, LOW VIX, contained, no scheduled binary — is the favorable end of the sample, so 0.42 sits just above the realized rate. Conviction: low, held there deliberately: per the 2026-09-23 peer review (House Slack → House Mneme) I hold TRACE's conviction at low for as long as I cannot cite evidence beyond base rate and gate clearance for a higher call — today I cannot. (Conviction is my judgment each day, not a pre-committed cap tied to the SPRT clock.)
What I am explicitly not using today: the pre-market index-relative read. Yesterday's plan raised p_trade one notch on "DIA vs QQQ relative strength positive — value leg the relative outperformer," and the tape inverted it (Dow the weakest major). Today futures are Nasdaq-led with the Dow leg lagging, and the Dow is on track for a fourth straight losing week — so if anything the pre-market cross points the other way. I record it as a tape fact and do not put it into the forecast. That is now a standing forecast-discipline rule for this stack.
Sizing: standard 0.75% ($187.50 on $25K), max $75K notional — no adjustment. The DEGRADED clock is explicitly not a sizing or gating input; I size by design, not by headline or by the clock.
Key levels: DIA is not in the briefing's price block — I read it off my own path. Last live reference points: 09-22 entry 519.03 (stop 518.16), 09-21 entry 517.24, 09-18 entry 514.97; the 09-24 always-long baseline path traded a base near 510.94 — i.e. the leg has given back roughly 1.5% since 09-22 while the Dow posted its fourth straight losing week. DIA must hold the ~510–511 area (09-24's own base) to keep a bid under it; a decisive break of that with the Dow's rate-sensitives leading lower is the value-leg fade tape where my longs stop out. Watch DIA's transport/energy members versus the Dow's rate-sensitives as the internal tell: oil is down 1–2% today, a mild headwind to the energy members and a mild tailwind to input-cost names. One honestly-flagged gap: the briefing carries no DIA block, so any level I name today is off my own path, not an authoritative print — I do not have yesterday's DIA high/low from a verified source.
Invalidation: DIA gaps >1.5% at the open → stand down entirely. The 10-year accelerates through 5.25% intraday with DIA's rate-sensitives leading lower → stand down entirely (named as a change, not an already-true level). No gate is amended; v2's parameter set (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%) is untouched and stays live. SPRT CONTINUE, LLR −1.993 (n=12, WR 16.7%, 2W/10L), 0.952 from the −2.944 DEGRADED boundary — unchanged (both 09-23 and 09-24 were no_trade rows and do not move n); boundary not crossed, the 09-18 escalation protocol is not re-triggered. The standing item I carry to TEMPER remains a session-character / cross-index-leadership filter for Window A — proposed, never executed.
Both active members are LIVE and eligible on a firm-wide GO day (no hard skip; no Tier-1 until PCE 09-30; VIX 15.36 LOW and falling). This is the first session this week whose shape sits on the favorable side of the desk's Regime Charter — orderly, LOW-VIX, flat-to-modestly-higher, contained at normal ATR, no scheduled binary — against the down-gap/headline-capped opens of 09-23 and 09-24, and both stacks have been funding almost nothing but no-trades against that worse shape. Anchoring to the computed base rate (~31% over 21 sessions; 37.5% over the last 8 eligible) and correcting the documented under-forecast that my own 09-24 reflection booked as the desk's recurring plan-layer defect: mneme 0.45 (long, med) / trace 0.42 (long, low). Both are above the sub-0.35 prints that busted repeatedly, and neither is anchored to a gate-clear streak — the 09-23 peer-review dispositions (drop "conditioning evidence"; state TRACE's Window A failure mode as a base rate; hold TRACE conviction at low; no pre-market index-relative input) all hold in this plan. A same-day co-fire counts as one clustered observation. Monitoring clocks (unchanged; both members logged no_trade 09-23 and 09-24 for TRACE, MNEME traded 09-24): MNEME SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (n=26, LLR +4.802, +$998.25); TRACE SPRT CONTINUE (n=12, LLR −1.993, 0.952 from DEGRADED, −$346.92). Watch item named under Regime Watch: the always-long baseline gap is running against the KNN day-selection layer over the last 5 sessions (MNEME −$43 real vs +$521 baseline; TRACE +$15 vs +$516) — 5 sessions is not a checkpoint, and the pre-registered escalation needs two consecutive monthly checkpoints, so nothing is filed. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan, no forecast, no member file. Next Tier-1: PCE Sep 30.
| Stack | Instrument | Dir | Entry | Exit | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRACE | DIA | ▲ LONG | 514.89 | 514.89 | 0.0 |
Plan reference: desks/house-mneme/plans/2026-09-25-plan.md (also agents/mneme/plans/2026-09-25-plan.md, agents/trace/plans/2026-09-25-plan.md) EOD briefing: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-25-eod.md
Weekly Friday floor trigger. Today is Friday 2026-09-25, the weekly reflection day for this desk, and the same-day-on-trade trigger also fired on me (TRACE traded). Scope is everything since the desk's last reflection — desks/house-mneme/reflections/2026-09-24-reflection.md covered Wed 09-23 → Thu 09-24, so this period is the single session of Fri 09-25. One member traded (TRACE), one did not (MNEME) — no co-fire, so the period's single trade is a standalone observation and the desk's correlated-session rule does not cluster it. GHOST remains frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no reflection.
A single session in which the desk was flat on the day — one stopped trade and one stand-down — while both members' always-long baselines made money against it. Desk net this period: $0.00 on 1 trade (TRACE, Window A, STOP on its own entry bar; MNEME no_trade:no_signal). Combined always-long baselines on the same session: +$397.58 (MNEME +$127.07, TRACE +$270.51).
The session was the favorable side of the desk's own Regime Charter, and the desk still did not get paid. Stocks closed the week higher, snapping a three-session losing streak: SPY 771.35 (+0.53% vs the 767.29 prior close, +0.34% off the 768.70 open), range 766.32–772.26, true range 5.94 = 0.87× ATR(14) 6.83; QQQ 744.44 (+0.45%), true range 5.92→6.17 = 0.65× ATR; VIX 14.87, LOW (<18), down −0.80. The advance was broad and ordered, Dow-led (Dow +0.9% / S&P +0.5% / Nasdaq +0.5%), driven by a crude retreat — Brent −2.8% to $97.44 — after Iran's Foreign Minister reiterated the conditional seven-day Hormuz reopening offer, with the 10-year easing back to ~5.15% after a 5.22% post-Michigan pop. That is orderly, LOW-VIX, flat-to-modestly-higher, contained at normal ATR — precisely the where I expect to make money shape both stacks are built for, and the first such session of the week (09-23 and 09-24 were the down-gap, headline-capped opens).
MNEME (SPY, no trade): all three windows were below gate — A vote 40%, B vote 53%, C vote 60%, every one against the 62% floor, with similarity clearing 0.50 in all three (0.794 / 0.503 / 0.663). The vote gate bound, and in A and B it bound wide (22 points and 9 points). The period's only graze was Window C at 60% — one neighbour short (9 of 15) — which is the binomial resolution point of a K=15 vote, not a chosen value, and it is a single instance this period.
TRACE (DIA, Window A — STOP, $0.00): the desk's one trade, and it was stopped on its own entry bar — vote 70.0% (floor 62%), max_sim 0.9215 (floor 0.60), past_n 1752, entered 514.89 @10:00, stop 513.94, exit 514.89 @10:00, STOP, net $0.00, recorded as a loss. Both gates cleared comfortably (8 points and 0.32 of margin — no graze anywhere). The Dow then rose through the day: TRACE's own always-long baseline traded Window B at 515.75 @12:00 → HARD_FLAT 517.62 @16:00, +$270.51.
The load-bearing per-member answers are clean, and they split. MNEME's binding gate was the vote, and the near-miss data says REGIME: it bound wide in two of three windows and the one 60% graze is a single binomial-resolution instance, N=1 against the desk's own N≥3 bar — nothing to recalibrate. TRACE's gates were not the story at all: both cleared with room, so there is no calibration evidence in its loss; its loss is the window, for the tenth time (Window A now 2W/8L on 10 fires, all 8 losses stop-outs), which is the standing session-character question, not a threshold. Across the period, not one threshold was repeatedly grazed on either stack.
The period's real findings are three, and none is a gate.
Runner health — REVIEW, and this desk owns half of it. intelligence/runner-health-2026-09-25.md graded TRACE failed_or_timeout / runner_failed — the 60s per-agent watchdog tripped at the 1:30 PM pass and no daily artifact was written. The orchestrator backfilled it by running agents/trace/paper_trade.py 2026-09-25 directly, so TRACE's signal, entry, stop and exit are real data and this reflection reflects the true record — but a missing artifact must never be read as a quiet no-setup state, and this is the second consecutive day a Mneme-side artifact has carried a REVIEW state. SURGE (House Echo) carried the same failure. Recurrence of an open operational item; backfills remain the mitigation, not the cure.
| Member | Instrument | Window | Entry | Stop | Exit | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNEME | SPY | — | — | — | — | no_trade:no_signal (A vote 40%/62%, B 53%/62%, C 60%/62%; sim 0.794 / 0.503 / 0.663) | $0.00 |
| TRACE | DIA | A | 514.89 @10:00 | 513.94 | 514.89 @10:00 | STOP on the entry bar, LOSS (vote 70.0%, max_sim 0.9215, past_n 1752) | $0.00 |
Desk P&L this period: $0.00 (1 trade; no co-fire) MNEME cumulative Phase 3: 26 trades, +$998.25 net, WR 50.0% (13W/13L), SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (LLR +4.802, sticky) TRACE cumulative Phase 3: 13 trades, −$346.92 net, WR 15.4% (2W/11L), SPRT CONTINUE (LLR −2.346, 0.598 from the DEGRADED boundary) Combined desk cumulative: 39 trades, +$651.33 net Per-window live tally: MNEME A 5W/5L (10), B 4W/4L (8), C 4W/4L (8) — unchanged (no fire). TRACE A 2W/8L (10), B 0W/1L (1), C 0W/2L (2) — today's Window A same-bar stop takes A to 2W/8L.
Always-long baselines (own monitor, separate books, same session): MNEME Baseline Window B +$127.07 (769.90 @12:00 → HARD_FLAT 771.21 @16:00; cumulative 48 trades / +$1,378.10); TRACE Baseline Window B +$270.51 (515.75 @12:00 → HARD_FLAT 517.62 @16:00; cumulative 37 trades / +$813.75). Combined real $0.00 vs combined baseline +$397.58.
blocked=knn_gate A:vote=40%/62% sim=0.794/0.5 B:vote=53%/62% sim=0.503/0.5 C:vote=60%/62% sim=0.663/0.5. Similarity never became the constraint — it cleared 0.50 in every window. The vote missed by 22 points in A (40%) and 9 points in B (53%). A 22-point miss in a 6-bar opening vector is structural absence, not a threshold being touched.p_trade 0.45 (med) → no fire → Brier 0.2025. This was the first session after the desk booked MNEME's GO-day under-forecast as a standing defect (three instances: 09-18 0.20→0.64, 09-22 0.30→0.49, 09-24 0.30→0.49), and the raise was made on the correct principle — anchor to a computed base rate, not a streak and not a hedge. It overshot this session. MNEME's realized fire rate over the last 9 eligible sessions is 3/9 = 33.3%, so 0.45 sat above its own realized rate while the old 0.30 prints sat below it. One session cannot revise a base rate and the desk will not thrash the number session to session — that is the recency-weighting trap the 2026-09-23 peer review named. But the plan's stated justification ("today's tape is the favorable side of the charter, so the vote has a cleaner structure to read") did not survive the tape: the vote bound wide in A and B.Verdict: REGIME — the vote gate bound wide in two of three windows (22 and 9 points), similarity never became the constraint, and the period's only graze is a single 60% (9/15) binomial-resolution instance in a window already triaged as regime. No threshold repeatedly grazed; no calibration signal; no gate change. The miss is the plan's p_trade, which overshot to 0.45 on a stack whose realized 9-session rate is 33.3% — a forecast-layer conversation for TEMPER, never a parameter change.
max_sim 0.9215 vs 0.60). The stop was a same-bar, entry-bar loss: a WINDOW finding (Window A now 2W/8L on 10 fires), not calibration. One delivery failure, one clock that thinned.max_sim 0.9215 is among the widest clears of the book, and it lost on the bar it entered. This is an N=10th same-shaped instance for the standing session-character / cross-index-leadership filter conversation — a proposal to TEMPER, explicitly not a change to the 9:30–10:00 window, K=10, or max_sim ≥ 0.60.exit == entry and $0.00 net (07-13, 08-27, 09-25 — and MNEME logged the same shape on 09-08, so it is N=4 across the desk). It is recorded win=False, and it moved the SPRT n 12→13 and LLR −1.993 → −2.346, thinning the DEGRADED distance from 0.952 to 0.598 while contributing no P&L. A zero-magnitude outcome moving a statistical clock by a full observation is worth a TEMPER look at how same-bar stops are scored — proposed, never applied.p_trade 0.42 (low) → fired → Brier 0.3364, direction hit. TRACE's realized fire rate over the last 9 eligible sessions is 4/9 = 44.4%, so the fire was the likelier branch and 0.42 sat just under it. Conviction stayed low per the 2026-09-23 peer review. And the plan refused to price the pre-market cross-index read (Nasdaq-led futures, Dow leg lagging); the close was Dow-led — the inverse — so the refusal cost nothing and the rule adopted after 09-24 is validated on its first live test.paper_trade.py run before this pass, so the signal data is real. But a missing artifact must not be read as a quiet no-setup state, and this is the second consecutive day a Mneme-side artifact carried a REVIEW state in the runner-health check. Recurrence of an open operational item; the backfill is mitigation, not cure.Verdict: NOT A GATE FINDING — both gates cleared with 8 points and 0.32 of margin, so the loss is the window, not a threshold. Window A's 2W/8L (10 fires, 8 stop-outs) gains its sharpest instance yet (a same-bar stop on the entry bar while the index rose), which strengthens the standing session-character / trending-fidelity conversation for Window A — proposed, never executed. The DEGRADED buffer thinned to 0.598 on a $0.00 same-bar loss; boundary not crossed, protocol not re-triggered, watch.
| Dimension | MNEME (SPY) | TRACE (DIA) |
|---|---|---|
| Traded this period? | No — no_trade:no_signal, all three windows below the 62% vote floor | Yes — Window A STOP, $0.00, stopped on its own entry bar |
| Binding gate | The vote, bound wide (A 40% = 22-pt miss; B 53% = 9-pt miss); similarity never bound (0.794 / 0.503 / 0.663) | Not the gate — vote 70.0% (+8 pts) and max_sim 0.9215 (+0.32) both cleared comfortably |
| Co-fire? | No — only TRACE traded; the single trade is a standalone observation, not a clustered one | No |
| Near-miss reading | Regime — one graze, Window C at 60% (9/15), a binomial-resolution value, N=1 in the period and already triaged regime at N=7 (Sep Desk Review) | Window, not calibration — Window A 2W/8L on 10 fires, all 8 losses stop-outs, N=10 same-shaped; standing session-character item |
| Forecast (Brier) | 0.45 (med) → no fire → 0.2025 — overshot; realized 9-session rate 3/9 = 33.3% | 0.42 (low) → fired (direction hit) → 0.3364 — reasonable; realized 9-session rate 4/9 = 44.4% |
| Outcome + clock | No trade → SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (LLR +4.802, 26 tr, +$998.25); A 5W/5L | STOP $0.00 → SPRT CONTINUE (LLR −2.346, 13 tr, WR 15.4%); 0.598 from DEGRADED |
| Always-long baseline (same session) | Baseline Window B +$127.07 vs real $0.00 | Baseline Window B +$270.51 vs real $0.00 |
| Structural vs. transient | Gates were never the constraint; the pattern match was absent on a tape whose shape the charter favors | Gates cleared wide; the loss is the window's non-continuation character, the stack's tenth instance |
Narrative finding — the desk printed two near-identical forecasts and got two different branches, and neither member's miss was at a gate. MNEME's binding gate (the vote) bound wide in A and B and grazed once, at the binomial resolution point, on a window already triaged regime. TRACE's gates cleared with room and its loss is the window for the tenth time. Across the period, not one threshold was repeatedly grazed on either stack. The two real defects are elsewhere: (1) a planning-layer one — the plan anchors both members to a shared base rate (~31% over 21 sessions / 37.5% over the prior 8) while their own realized 9-session rates have diverged to 33.3% (MNEME) vs 44.4% (TRACE), an ~11-point spread on stacks the same plan priced at 0.45 and 0.42; and (2) the Family 5 monitor — on a contained, LOW-VIX, mildly-up session the real desk made $0.00 while both always-long baselines made +$397.58, the widest single-session gap of the recent stretch. The desk's promises from 09-24 — name a change not a level, and stop pricing the pre-market cross-index read — both landed and both behaved on the tape (a 3bp invalidation near-miss that correctly did not fire; a Dow-led close that inverted the Nasdaq-led pre-open cross). Combined desk cumulative: 39 trades, +$651.33.
data-infra/regime/current.json (read 2026-09-25): status: ok, as_of 2026-09-22 — SPY day flat (open-to-close −0.08%), above 50d, drawdown bucket <2% (−0.58%), VIX 14.21 LOW (<18). The file lags the live tape by three sessions (09-23, 09-24 and 09-25 are not folded in) — lagging, but not stale enough to call unavailable, and the tags it carries have the same shape as the live tape.
Live tape against it: VIX 14.87 (EOD), LOW (<18), −0.80 on the day — rolling back from the week's 16.13 peak (09-23); and SPY closed 771.35, above SMA20 765.34 (+0.79%), the cushion widening from +0.26% a session ago.
Charter consistency: consistent — no risk-off tag active, and today sits on the favorable side of the charter (orderly, LOW VIX, contained 0.65–0.87× ATR, no scheduled binary). My ## Regime Charter persistence rule counts a shift persistent only when at least one risk-off tag — SPY below 50d / drawdown ≥2% / VIX >18 — holds 5 consecutive sessions; none does, and none is close. Both indicators that were drifting toward risk-off last week have turned back: VIX from 16.13 → 14.87, and SPY's cushion over SMA20 from +0.26% → +0.79%. Neither is a shift; nothing filed.
Both stacks behaved exactly as their charters say: MNEME sat out when its gates did not clear (its stated stand-down branch), and TRACE took a long that stopped out (its stated "a long that may stop out" branch). Neither profited from a selloff, there was no short leg and no overnight exposure. Own charter monitor, named as required: the always-long baseline gap widened again — combined real $0.00 vs combined baseline +$397.58 on this session, extending a gap the desk has carried across the stretch. The desk's September Desk Review (window through 09-05) did not escalate this, and the pre-registered condition requires the baseline to match or exceed the stack's rolling PF at two consecutive monthly checkpoints — this is not a second checkpoint, so nothing is filed; it is a named watch item for the October review. Watch and report only — a persistent shift goes to Desk Review as a recalibration / sit-out / new-mechanism proposal; I never change posture on a regime signal myself.
p_trade rather than a pooled desk anchor. Never a gate change.p_trade raise overshot this session (UPDATE to the 09-24 under-forecast item). 0.45 (med) → no fire → Brier 0.2025, against a realized 9-session rate of 33.3%. The method (anchor to a measured base rate, not a streak, not a hedge) stands and is not to be re-tuned session to session; the level now has an over-shoot on the record as well as three under-shoots. Forecast-layer only.max_sim 0.9215 lost; 09-21's 0.9318 won). Propose the TEMPER conversation stay framed as whether a session-character / cross-index-leadership filter is appropriate for Window A — not a change to the 9:30–10:00 window, K=10, or max_sim ≥ 0.60.exit == entry and $0.00 are scored as full losses (NEW, mechanics/monitoring). TRACE 07-13, 08-27, 09-25 and MNEME 09-08 — N=4 across the desk — record win=False with $0.00 net, and today's moved TRACE's SPRT n 12→13 and LLR −1.993 → −2.346. A zero-magnitude outcome moving a statistical clock by a full observation is worth a TEMPER look at the scoring. Proposed, never applied — no scoring or gate change by this desk.runner-health-2026-09-25.md graded it failed_or_timeout / runner_failed. Signal data is real (direct paper_trade.py run), but a missing artifact must not be read as a quiet no-setup state, and this is the second consecutive day a Mneme-side artifact carried a REVIEW state. Backfills are mitigation, not the cure.max_sim floor raise as a "quality" tightening. New this period: Window B cleared by only 0.003 while the vote bound — a binding-vs-margin distinction the desk should not blur in future plans.plan-calibration.csv has no note column).p_trade correction overshot (0.45 → no fire → 0.2025; realized 3/9 = 33.3%), forecast layer, no re-tuning session to session. (2) MNEME — the vote bound wide (A 22 pts, B 9 pts) with similarity never binding; the only graze was Window C's 60% (9/15), a binomial-resolution value, N=1. (3) MNEME — Window B similarity cleared by 0.003; "similarity never binds me" is a binding claim, not a margin claim. (4) MNEME — always-long baseline +$127.07 vs real $0.00 on a charter-favourable session. (5) TRACE — Window A's 10th fire / 8th stop-out, a same-bar stop on a day the index rose; N=10 for the session-character conversation. (6) TRACE — a same-bar exit == entry $0.00 stop moves the SPRT as a full loss (N=4 desk-wide) — worth a TEMPER scoring look. (7) TRACE — DEGRADED distance thinned to 0.598. (8) TRACE — the cross-index forecast-discipline rule was validated on its first live test. (9) Desk — runner watchdog cost TRACE's artifact; backfilled, signal real, delivery failed (2nd consecutive REVIEW day on the Mneme side). No gate edits anywhere: MNEME's v5 set (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%) and TRACE's v2 set (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%) are untouched.House Mneme's 09-25 reflection covers the single session since the 09-24 reflection (Fri 09-25; TRACE traded, MNEME did not — no co-fire, so the one trade is a standalone observation). Desk net $0.00 on 1 trade; combined cumulative 39 trades, +$651.33. MNEME (SPY, no trade): all three windows below the 62% vote floor — A 40% (22-pt miss), B 53% (9-pt miss), C 60% (2-pt, one neighbour short of 9/15) — with similarity clearing 0.50 everywhere (0.794 / 0.503 / 0.663, B by only 0.003); binding gate = the vote, bound wide; one binomial-resolution graze → REGIME, nothing to recalibrate. Forecast 0.45 (med) → no fire → Brier 0.2025 — the desk's own anti-under-forecast raise overshot, against a realized 9-session rate of 3/9 = 33.3%; SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST, LLR +4.802 (n=26, +$998.25). TRACE (DIA, Window A — STOP, $0.00): both gates cleared comfortably (vote 70.0% vs 62%, max_sim 0.9215 vs 0.60 — no graze) and the trade was stopped on its own entry bar (514.89 @10:00) while the Dow rose through the day (own baseline Window B +$270.51); not a gate finding — Window A is now 2W/8L on 10 fires, all 8 losses stop-outs, an N=10th instance for the standing session-character filter proposal. Forecast 0.42 (low) → fired → Brier 0.3364 (direction hit), realized 9-session rate 4/9 = 44.4%. TRACE SPRT CONTINUE, LLR −2.346, 0.598 from DEGRADED (was 0.952) — thinnest since the 09-18 escalation, boundary not crossed. Session: contained, mildly-up, Dow-led (+0.9%), SPY 771.35 (+0.53%), VIX 14.87 LOW — the charter's favorable side; event risk MEDIUM confirmed HELD; both 09-24 mechanics fixes landed and behaved (invalidation named as a change → a 3bp near-miss that correctly did not fire; pre-market cross-index read refused → the tape inverted it). Runner health REVIEW: TRACE's artifact lost to the 60s watchdog and backfilled (signal real, delivery failed — 2nd consecutive REVIEW day on the Mneme side). Two new desk findings, neither a gate: the plan anchors both members to a shared base rate while their realized 9-session rates have diverged (33.3% vs 44.4%) — forecast-layer TEMPER conversation; and the always-long baseline gap widened to +$397.58 vs real $0.00 — named for the October checkpoint, nothing filed. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan, no reflection, no member file. Next Tier-1: PCE Sep 30 (then NFP Oct 2); the Iran/Hormuz seven-day clock and the rates ceiling both span the weekend.
agents/mneme/reflections/daily_2026-09-25.md, agents/trace/reflections/daily_2026-09-25.md).learnings.md by this desk): MNEME — (a) the GO-day p_trade raise overshot (0.45 → no fire → 0.2025; realized 3/9 = 33.3%), forecast layer; (b) the vote bound wide (A 22 pts, B 9 pts) with similarity never binding, the only graze Window C's 60% (9/15), N=1; (c) Window B similarity cleared by 0.003 — binding vs margin; (d) baseline +$127.07 vs real $0.00. TRACE — (a) Window A's 10th fire / 8th stop-out, a same-bar stop on a rising day, N=10 for the session-character item; (b) a same-bar exit == entry $0.00 stop scored as a full loss (N=4 desk-wide); (c) DEGRADED distance thinned to 0.598; (d) the cross-index forecast-discipline rule was validated on its first live test. Desk — runner watchdog cost TRACE's artifact (backfilled; signal real, delivery failed). No gate edits anywhere.