House Slack — 2026-09-18

Desk Plan — House Slack — 2026-09-18

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-18-pm.md PM: SLACK (sole member)

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: LOW — no Tier-1 event; the structural item is the expiry, not the data. At 3:00 PM ET today is quadruple witching — quarterly index futures (opening-based settlement), index options and single-stock options all expire, with Citadel Securities estimating ~$6.2tn of US options exposure scheduled to expire (tracking toward June's record $7.7tn; some desks cite up to $9.6tn). Today is also the S&P 500 quarterly rebalance flow day ahead of Monday Sep 21's effective date (BE / P / ILMN added; TTD / TAP / BLDR deleted) — index funds trade the Friday close ahead of the Monday print, so today is the primary flow day. Both are mechanical/flow events, not information events: the briefing's own instruction is that expiry flow, not narrative, is the dominant intraday variable and a choppy open must not be read as a directional signal. The only scheduled macro reads are second-tier: 9:15 ET Industrial Production (+0.3% cons), 10:00 ET CB LEI (+0.1%), with Fed speakers Bowman 9:30 and Schmid ~11:45. Next Tier-1: PCE Sep 30, NFP Oct 2, CPI Oct 14. Scanner firm-wide status: GO.
• Session character expected: mechanically-driven / mixed — a modestly risk-on, tech-led open that may not form clean structure until after the first 30 minutes. Overnight: the post-Fed relief tone carried into Asia and Europe, with Nvidia the marginal catalyst (Huang: chip volume roughly doubling next year; Samsung/SK Hynix led Asia, Nikkei +1.4–1.7%). Second feature: the BOJ hiked to 1.25% — a 31-year high — and the yen weakened anyway (~157.8), a textbook sell-the-fact on a telegraphed hike; the BoE held Thursday. Cross-asset: oil down a third session, WTI below $100, on Saudi East-West pipeline restoration expectations (the escalation channel is still live — fresh Saudi–Houthi strikes); rates eased, 10-yr ~4.94% after a ~10bp Thursday decline, backing off the 19-year/2007 high ~5.04%, 30-yr still ~5.28%; gold firm ~$4,390–4,420, silver sharply higher. Pre-market quotes: SPY +0.24% / QQQ +0.47%, semis the bid. Witching-day open prints can be mechanically stale. Irrelevant to a 5-day swing: I check IWM once at the open for a signal or a scheduled exit; I hold no intraday view.
• VIX regime: LOW — 15.27 (−0.17 vs prior close 15.44; the steady decline 17.71 → 16.02 → 15.44 → 15.27 is itself the read: vol is being sold, not bought, through a two-event week). Under the 18 boundary; the scanner's 30-threshold reads CLEAR. For my book this is my best backtest bucket (LOW <20: n=21, WR 61.9%, PF 3.01) — favorable if a run flags. It changes nothing about what the gate reads today except in the direction of suppressed extremity, which is the opposite of what my gate needs.
• Key levels: the only binding level for this stack is ±4.97% on IWM's 5-day close-to-close return (85th-percentile dev calibration 2020–2023, held fixed). IWM is not in today's Alpaca block (which carries SPY 762.64 — below its 20-day SMA 764.31 — and QQQ 716.89, above its own 712.73) and the scanner's watchlist carries no IWM reference at all today, so I state no IWM price rather than manufacture one. Standing structural refs remain ~$292 floor / ~$300 ceiling. The number that gates today's open is script-logged: the latest reading is −2.35% (agents/slack/performance/trades.csv, row 2026-09-17, blocked=run_magnitude, thresh=±4.97%) — 2.62pp short of the −4.97% down-flag and 7.32pp short of the +4.97% up-flag. Flat book (agents/slack/state/position_ledger.json → open_position: null). Rates leg: 10-yr ~4.94% — the easing that permits the relief bid and the transmission check on whether it extends.
• Macro backdrop: a still-stagflation-tilted, tightening-on-two-continents tape now two sessions into a post-decision relief trade — the Fed's first hike in three years (3.75–4.00%, one-more-hike signal) read as a credibility positive, yields easing off the 5% re-test, oil correcting on supply restoration while the geopolitical channel stays live, and leadership back in the AI/semis complex with breadth improving. IWM is the small-cap/high-beta, most yield- and risk-sentiment-sensitive cohort: it participates in relief breadth, and it is the leg that fails to travel far enough when the move is broad and orderly — which is the whole Phase 3 problem for this stack.
• One generalizable TEMPER lesson applied: the firm's 2026-06-22 calendar-hygiene finding — pre-disclosed quarterly index events produce below-ATR, low-conviction, rotation-dominated sessions (measured true ranges 0.59–0.63× ATR on the last such date), and the effective date is the completion of passive flow, not the initiation of it. Today is the flow day rather than the effective date, but the same mechanic applies to the closing auction: diffuse mechanical churn, not price discovery. For a strategy whose entire gate is 5-day extremity, mechanically suppressed dispersion is a headwind, not a tailwind. This is a session-character modifier, not a rule change.

slack — SLACK (Capacity-Ratio Swing Mean Reversion, IWM)

Setup present: no. No trade expected — flat, no 5-day cycle in flight, no exit due, no entry reachable at today's open. p_trade 0.0, direction none, conviction high.

State-machine leg, stated plainly (this is where the position actually is). The ledger is {"open_position": null} — there is no open position, therefore no 5-day cycle in flight: no hold-silently marker, no close-and-log, nothing carried over today at all. Today is day 0 of a cycle that has not started. At most one real trade per session is even possible for this stack (an entry at today's open from a prior flagged close, or a scheduled close-and-log); neither leg is live — no position to hold or exit, and the entry test reads −2.35% against a ±4.97% threshold, 2.62pp short on the down leg. A real trade today is therefore mechanically excluded, not merely judged unlikely. Note this explicitly for today's framing: a state-machine hold is not a new trade — and there is nothing held to hold, so today is neither an open day nor a hold day. Zero event exposure, by structure, into the quarter's largest passive-flow session.

The roll, bounded honestly. From −2.35%, a down-flag needs the reading to deepen ~2.62pp to −4.97%; an up-flag needs ~7.32pp to +4.97%. The reading's day-over-day change is composition-driven, not level-driven: today's close gives close(09-18)/close(09-11) − 1 where the prior reading was close(09-17)/close(09-10) − 1 — both ends of the window roll at once, the base rotating off the 09-10 close as the measuring close advances. I hold no IWM closes for those dates (IWM absent from the Alpaca block; no IWM line in the scanner) and I will not invent one — so the output is a bound, not a point estimate. On a tape characterized as mechanically-driven, modestly risk-on relief with VIX at 15.27 and falling through the week, the base case is no flag settles at today's close. The strongest available evidence for that call is already on the tape: VIX fell 17.71 → 16.02 → 15.44 across the two sessions straddling the Fed — a crash-scale single-session small-cap close (≥2.6% IWM on the down leg) is not coherent with vol being sold into a tech-led relief bid.

Today is a measurement day, not a trade day — and the measurement gates Monday 09-21's open. If a flag were to settle at today's close, the contrarian entry would fire at 09-21's open and, under the locked mechanism (days_held counted as trading days strictly after entry, exit at days_held >= 5), exit at the 09-28 close — spanning the rebalance effective print (09-21) and the week after witching. That holds standard 15%, no stand-down, no cut, for the three reasons already reasoned in the desk log: (1) the mechanism has no event-day override by design (strategy_v2.md Rule 6) and a plan-level stand-down is not mine to manufacture — no unilateral tweak; (2) an event-day entry is inside my cleared envelope, not outside it — 9 of 68 validated backtest trades entered on an event day, 8W/1L, net +$580.07, worst −$36.20 (−0.97% of notional), including 2024-09-18 (an FOMC decision day); n=9 is monitoring-grade, not proof, and I read it as "no case to stand down," not as a licence to claim event entries are better; (3) event risk is priced in the size — the ~$3,750 fixed notional exists precisely to absorb a stop-free 5-day hold through mechanically noisy weeks, calibrated against the worst trade in my history (−19.66% of notional, 2020 COVID week ≈ −3.0% of account equity). A discretionary cut for one particular calendar would be an untested deviation from a cleared mechanism; if an event-day or expiry-day filter should exist, the path is a fresh spec through the pipeline and TEMPER, not this plan.

Sizing / adjustments: none — standard operating procedure. Nothing to size: flat, no entry reachable at today's open, no scheduled exit. The locked 15%-of-equity fixed notional (≈$3,750 on the $25K account), single position, no stop-loss / no profit target / no early exit has no event-day or event-risk override, and today's LOW event risk plus the firm-wide GO are gate-irrelevant when the cycle says no-signal. Witching is a genuine argument for not adding discretionary exposure — but that argument has no purchase on a book that is already flat because it is unflagged, and I will not let a flow-calendar fact dress itself up as a stand-down rule. Flat-because-unflagged, not flat-because-frightened.

What I'm watching:

1. The run settling at today's close — the only number that matters, deciding whether an entry fires at Monday 09-21's open. From −2.35%, the down leg is the only remotely live path (yield-sensitive small caps pressed by a 10-yr that re-asserts toward 5% and snaps the semis bid is the realistic route); it still needs a crash-scale single-session small-cap close, which a mechanically-driven, vol-selling relief session with VIX at 15.27 does not offer. The up leg needs ~7.3pp and is not live in any scenario today. My call: no flag.
2. The closing auction, not the open — on a witching + rebalance-flow day the mechanical weight sits in the 3:00–4:00 PM window and the close. I don't have an intraday view and won't pretend to; the point is only that today's close is the print my gate reads, and it is the most flow-distorted close of the quarter. A close that prints outside the session's own range would be an expiry/auction artifact, not a small-cap repricing — and a single such print is not the sustained 5-day extremity my gate is built to trade. If a flag ever settles on an expiry artifact, I want it to be the mechanism's call, not mine.
3. IWM vs ~$292 / ~$300 — a decisive break below the multi-session floor is the realistic route to a down-flag (→ contrarian long) in this window or the next; a sustained catch-up toward $300 is the up-flag route in later windows. Also worth noting for the first time in a while: breadth is improving and small caps participated in Wednesday's relief — if that broadens into a genuine small-cap catch-up, the up leg becomes live for the first time this quarter, and the up leg flags a contrarian short. IWM is not Alpaca-owned and not on today's scanner, so I bound rather than assert.
4. Whether the post-Fed relief week finally produces crash-scale small-cap extremity — the standing Phase 3 falsification test. The 09-11 sticky-hot CPI failed; the 09-14/09-15 AI-repricing gaps failed; the 09-16 FOMC failed; the 09-17 post-decision session failed (reading now −2.35%). Every one of them offered the same two-tier shape that suppresses the composite. Today's structure is index-level and flow-driven, and index-level moves are usually less dispersed — mechanically-flowed sessions least of all. I want the flag; I do not expect it.

Invalidation: none applies — flat, no entry reachable at today's open (reading −2.35% vs ±4.97%; a flag requires a several-percent single-session IWM close), no scheduled exit, nothing held into the expiry. This is regime, not calibration — TEMPER's pre-registered 2026-07-24 read holds: range-bound-to-breaking IWM = a structurally unreachable ±4.97% threshold = expected behavior, not edge degradation. Today is the 55th consecutive logged session since Phase 3 began (07-02 → 09-18; the duplicate 08-07 row remains flagged for cleanup, so the row count is 56 for 55 sessions), roughly 3.2× the ~17-session expected inter-signal gap. The nearest Phase 3 graze remains 09-02's −2.95%, still 2.02pp away, with no cluster in either the −4.0%→−4.97% or +4.0%→+4.97% band. SPRT correctly sits at n=0, LLR +0.000, both boundaries (±2.944) untouched — absence of setups is not evidence of degradation and must not flag. No TEMPER conversation warranted. A no-trade day is the mechanism working as designed, not a failure.

Record-hygiene item carried to today's Friday reflection (not a gate item, not a change): the desk's standing convention reads each trades.csv row's prior_5d_run as the run settling at that row's own date's close, gating the next session's open. paper_trade.py's near-miss telemetry computes it from prior = d[d["date"] < trade_date] (prior.iloc[-1], paper_trade.py ~line 332) — the last close strictly before the row's trade date, mirrored on the same call that gates that row's own open. The two readings are one day apart, and they have been read the same way in every plan and reflection this window. It does not change today's call (the gap is 2.6–2.9pp either way, versus a threshold nothing has come within 2.0pp of in 55 sessions), but one of the two is wrong and the desk should know which before the flat-streak and near-miss bookkeeping is cited again. Flagged for today's reflection; no unilateral change to any script.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-09-18 04:35 PDT (pre-market, House Slack desk session)
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
• Firm-wide status: GO (event_risk LOW; no Tier-1 event; quadruple witching + S&P 500 rebalance flow day = structural, not informational) — gate-irrelevant for a flat swing stack: no position to hold, no exit due, no entry reachable
• Expected action: no trade — no_trade:no_signal (blocked=run_magnitude; reading −2.35% vs ±4.97% = 2.62pp short; flat book, no 5-day cycle in flight; next entry window = Mon 09-21's open if today's close flags a run, which would exit the 09-28 close)

No trades taken.

House Slack Desk Reflection — 2026-09-18

Cadence rule: WS5 weekly Friday floor (amended 2026-08-21 — House Slack reflects every Friday regardless of activity, plus same-day whenever a position opens or closes). Trigger fires — this is the fourth reflection under the amended cadence. Last reflection 2026-09-11; trading sessions since: 09-14, 09-15, 09-16, 09-17, 09-18 = 5. No position events: agents/slack/state/position_ledger.json reads {"open_position": null} for the entire window and for all of Phase 3 to date — no open, no hold, no close. Today's run: no capacity-ratio signal, no position-state change — a flat measurement day, consistent with 5-day-hold continuation (nothing held) or idle (the norm).

Single-member desk. Per the desk-reflection convention for House Slack, the Cross-Member Synthesis section is omitted (nothing to pool); the Per-Member Binding Gate Analysis below carries the full analytical load.

Desk Performance Summary

Desk total for the session: 0 trades, $0.00 realized, flat book. Every session in the window logged no_trade:no_signal with blocked=run_magnitude. Execution integrity clean: 5/5 daily cycles ran, 5/5 no-trade rows logged, ledger unmodified, sprt.json updated through 2026-09-18 with n=0 / LLR +0.000 / both boundaries ±2.944 untouched.

What Happened

Five sessions since the 09-11 reflection (Sep 14 → Sep 18) — zero signals, zero trades, zero position events. The ledger never left {"open_position": null}. Every session blocked on the desk's single entry gate, run_magnitude: IWM's 5-day close-to-close return versus the fixed ±4.97% threshold (85th-percentile dev calibration 2020–2023, held fixed on holdout).

The window's settled readings — the run value at each session's close, which is the number that gates the next session's open:

The one number worth naming, and it is genuinely new: 09-16's −3.21% is the deepest down-leg reading of the entire Phase 3, beating the prior record (−2.95% on 09-02) by 0.26pp, and it sits 1.76pp from the −4.97% flag — the closest the down leg has ever come to a graze. Three things keep it from meaning a regime shift:

1. It is a single isolated print, not a graze. The calibration test is repeated same-gate grazing — near-miss clusters in the −4.0% → −4.97% or +4.0% → +4.97% bands. There is still no cluster; −3.21% is one day, and it receded immediately. The nearest Phase 3 graze remains no nearer than this 1.76pp, and nothing has ever actually entered the graze band.
2. It receded as fast as it deepened — composition again. The reading moved −3.21% (09-16) → −2.35% (09-17) → −0.84% (09-18) — a 2.37pp unwind over two sessions into a relief/containment week. Δrun ≈ today's return − the dropped session's return; a large down session rolling off the back of the 5-day window pushed the reading deeper on FOMC day, then the next two closes rolled it straight back. Same mechanic the 09-11 reflection flagged: the run is composition-driven, not level-driven.
3. The FOMC day was the front-door falsification test again, and it still did not falsify the regime read. The treasury pushed the small-cap leg to its deepest Phase 3 compression — and even then it settled 1.76pp short. A post-decision relief tape then erased nearly all of it. If the cost stack's peak pressure cannot put IWM within 1.76pp and hold it there, the ordinary tape will not.

Plans & forecasts in the window (5/5 filed, 5/5 scored): all five days forecast p_trade 0.0 / direction none / conviction high → Brier 0.0 on every session. No honest lean was warranted at any point: the run was in the down leg the whole window but never within reach of a cross, and the plans refused to invent one.

Self-critique (the candid part). Discipline was clean — gate refused to fire, plans refused to invent setups, script-is-arbiter honored on 5/5, forecast layer 5/5 with zero Brier loss. The one soft spot carried over from 09-11 is the same narrative mechanic, now sharper: the plan framing kept bounding the reading as a level ("from −2.35%, the down leg needs ~2.6pp") while the day-over-day driver is window composition. That framing correctly never forecasts a cross it can't reach, but it is why the plan narrative read 09-16 as "the closest the down leg has been" only in hindsight — the distance framing at 09-15's open could not have told me the reading would deepen ~0.5pp into and out of the FOMC print simply from the window rolling. I am bounding the roll in future plans, not just the level. No gate or mechanism issue; forecasting-narrative only.

Paper P&L

No positions to manage. Nothing was held over the FOMC decision or into the witching expiry. The daily cron ran clean on all five sessions; the forecast layer ran continuously (5/5 desk plans, 5/5 member plans, 5/5 calibration rows).

Event Risk vs. Expectation

The window carried the firm's two structural items and one Tier-1: FOMC 2026-09-16 (the window's only true information event — the Fed's first hike in three years, 3.75–4.00%, with a one-more-hike signal taken as a credibility positive), followed by quadruple witching + S&P 500 quarterly rebalance flow on 09-18 (mechanical, ~$6.2tn options exposure, index funds trading Friday's close ahead of Monday's effective date — a below-ATR containment session, exactly as pre-assigned). No missed real event; the second-tier macro reads (IP, LEI) were non-moving.

For this desk the events were gate-relevant only through IWM's 5-day run, and the outcome was the anticipated shape: a repricing, not a crash-scale small-cap torque. The FOMC day produced the deepest down-leg reading of Phase 3 (−3.21%), but it settled 1.76pp short and receded within a session. Nothing was carried into the decision or the expiry — flat-because-unflagged, not flat-because-frightened. The 5-day hold has no event-day override by design, and since no flag settled, no hold-spanning exposure was ever taken. Forward: next Tier-1 is PCE Sep 30 (NFP Oct 2, CPI Oct 14) — none within the next 7 trading days; next-session event risk LOW/NONE. No desk adjustment — the COVID-tail-calibrated 15% sizing exists for exactly the hold-spanning class the mechanism is built to run. Monitoring only.

Per-Member Binding Gate Analysis

Member: SLACK (IWM, Family 6 — Swing / Capacity-Driven Mean Reversion, 5-day fixed hold)

• Binding gate this period: run_magnitude — IWM's 5-day close-to-close return versus the fixed ±4.97% threshold. This is the entire entry gate (single gate by design; capacity_ratio is a diagnostic only, per strategy_v2.md — it does not gate entries). With the book flat and no 5-day cycle in flight, the state machine had exactly one live leg — an open-from-prior-flag entry — and it was never reachable.
• Near-miss data: five settled readings, all 1.76–4.13pp short: −2.05% → −2.73% → −3.21% → −2.35% → −0.84%. The window's closest reading (−3.21% on 09-16, FOMC day) sits 1.76pp from the down flag — the closest the down leg has ever come, and a new all-time Phase 3 depth. But it is a single isolated print, not a graze: there is no cluster in the −4.0% → −4.97% or +4.0% → +4.97% band (the deepest positive reading in all of Phase 3 remains +3.92% on 08-06, itself 1.05pp short), and −3.21% receded to −0.84% within two sessions. Grazing requires sustained proximity; proximity occurred once, for a day, and rolled away.
• Verdict: REGIME — not calibration. The calibration test is repeated same-gate grazing, and the period has none — the deepest reading in 55 sessions is a single-day 1.76pp miss that immediately rolled off on the composition mechanic. A threshold that is mispositioned gets grazed; this one gets a wide miss with one isolated brush that did not persist. The setup is structurally absent — IWM range-bound ~$292–$300, the two-tier extent-suppressing tape starving the mechanism of the sustained 5-day extremity it requires. This is the eighth consecutive reflection window of the same shape, and TEMPER's pre-registered 2026-07-24 retrospective holds: range-bound-to-breaking IWM = structurally unreachable ±4.97% threshold = expected behavior, not edge degradation. The window's front-door falsification test — the FOMC decision day — pushed the small-cap leg to its deepest compression and still could not put IWM within 1.76pp and hold it there.
• SPRT posture: CONTINUE, n=0, LLR +0.000, both boundaries (±2.944) untouched. Flat streak is now 55 unique logged sessions (07-02 → 09-18) against an expected inter-signal gap of ~17 sessions at ~13–15 signals/year — about 3.2× the expected gap. The SPRT is correct to stay silent: absence of setups is not evidence of degradation, and the monitor must not (and does not) flag on it.
• Action warranted: none. No threshold tweak (a 55-session regime read is not calibration evidence; loosening the gate to catch a one-day 1.76pp miss would be textbook overfitting to a range-bound window), no TEMPER escalation (no graze, no cluster — the new −3.21% depth is a named number, not an escalation), no strategy revision. The gate is doing exactly its job: keeping the desk out of a tape that never offered the setup it is built to trade. Monitoring continues; the down → contrarian-LONG leg remains the nearer of the two — and the FOMC-day −3.21% — while short-lived — shows the down leg can get meaningfully deep when the small-cap cohort is pressed. When the ~$292 floor breaks, that is the realistic route to a flag.

Open TEMPER Items (Carried Forward)

• SLACK forecast-pipeline gap (from 2026-07-24 / 2026-08-07): remains resolved. This window filed 5/5 desk plans, 5/5 member plans and 5/5 calibration rows, all Brier 0.0. Fifth consecutive clean window; no regression.
• SLACK pre-market bound decorrelation (closed on the miss side 09-04): no recurrence of the direction error. No session forecast a cross, and none occurred — bound-refusal discipline held 5/5. The narrower narrative mechanic (rolling a level bound when the day-over-day driver is window composition) carried from 09-11 remains monitoring only: the FOMC-day reading deepened ~0.5pp into and out of the print off the roll alone, which the level-bound framing could not surface in advance. Bounded-roll framing going forward; no TEMPER conversation warranted, no action taken.
• Operational data-hygiene note (carried 09-11, still open): agents/slack/performance/trades.csv carries a duplicated 2026-08-07 row (identical notes, same blocked reason) — 56 rows for 55 unique sessions. Harmless to the gate (the script reads state, not the log) but it corrupts row-count bookkeeping, including the flat-streak denominator. Left untouched for cleanup; not counted as a session in this reflection.
• Record-hygiene item (carried from today's plan, monitoring only): the desk's standing convention reads each trades.csv row's prior_5d_run as the run settling at that row's own date's close (gating the next session's open), while paper_trade.py's telemetry computes it from the close strictly before the row's trade date (paper_trade.py ~line 332). The two readings are one day apart and have been read the same way all window. It does not change any call (the gap differs by ~2.3–2.6pp either way versus a threshold nothing has entered in 55 sessions) but one of the two is wrong and should be settled by TEMPER/the weekly audit before the near-miss bookkeeping is cited again. No unilateral change to any script.

Desk Summary for Orchestrator

House Slack was flat for all five sessions since the 09-11 reflection (09-14 → 09-18): 5/5 no_trade:no_signal, blocked=run_magnitude, ledger clean, SPRT CONTINUE (n=0, LLR +0.000, both boundaries untouched). The window's readings ran −2.05% → −2.73% → −3.21% → −2.35% → −0.84%, and the one number worth flagging is 09-16's −3.21% on FOMC day — a new all-time Phase 3 down-leg depth and the closest the flag has ever been (1.76pp), driven by the run's window-composition mechanic, which then rolled it back to −0.84% by today's witching close. Binding-gate verdict: REGIME, not calibration — a single isolated 1.76pp brush with no cluster and immediate recession is not gradient-evidence; the eighth consecutive window of the same range-bound two-tier shape, and the FOMC day's front-door test again confirmed the small-cap leg cannot reach the threshold and hold it. Forecast layer 5/5 clean (Brier 0.0). Flat streak now 55 unique logged sessions (~3.2× the ~17-session expected gap), consistent with regime suppression of extremity, not degradation. Watching the down → contrarian-LONG leg into any break of the ~$292 IWM floor; nothing to adjust, nothing to escalate.

• Filed: 2026-09-18 (EOD, House Slack desk session)
• Sessions since last reflection: 5 (Sep 14 – Sep 18)
• Cumulative trades (Phase 3): 0 — SPRT CONTINUE (n=0, W0/L0, LLR +0.000)
• Current IWM state: flat, no position, no 5-day cycle in flight; run at today's close −0.84% per telemetry (fully receded off the FOMC-day −3.21% depth; 4.13pp short of the −4.97% down flag) → no entry reachable at Monday 09-21's open. Structural refs ~$292 floor / ~$300 ceiling; VIX LOW (14.81), the desk's best backtest bucket.
• Next event risk: NONE within 7 trading days (next Tier-1 PCE Sep 30, NFP Oct 2, CPI Oct 14); next scheduled reflection = weekly Friday floor 2026-09-25, plus same-day on any position open/close in between.