House Mneme — 2026-09-11

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-09-11

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-11-pm.md PM: MNEME (desk-blind: this desk's own members only; GHOST stays frozen, no plan)

Shared Market Read

• Event risk today: HIGH — CPI (Aug) prints TODAY at 8:30 AM ET, a same-day Tier-1 macro release. Firm status NO-GO; agents must not trade. The last clean inflation input into the Sep 15–16 FOMC, now priced ~70% for a 25bp hike (up from ~60% a week ago; October hike fully absorbed after hot PPI +5.4% y/y).
• Session character expected: Binary / two-sided until 8:30, then trending on the print. Direction genuinely unknown until the number lands — do NOT pre-assign which leg (yield-sensitive growth/chips vs. value/relative-floor) fails. The briefing explicitly warns against the contained/sub-ATR default: this is a print-driven binary, not an idle coin-flip. Expect a volatile open; the first 20–30 min consumed by the print; cleaner structure after ~9:45–10:00. Michigan sentiment (10:00 ET, MEDIUM) carries an inflation-expectations line worth watching into the FOMC.
• VIX regime: 17.21, LOW (<18). Neither KNN stack gates on VIX (it is not an input), so regime activates neither member today — the binding constraint is the hard CPI skip, not vol.
• Key levels: QQQ prior close 708.73 (below SMA20 716.56, ATR14 7.53); SPY prior close 757.87 (below SMA20 767.52, ATR14 5.34). Both SPY and QQQ closed a fourth (SPY) / second (QQQ) session sub-SMA20 after a tech/semis-led pullback on the 10-yr breakout (4.94%, 2023 high). DIA is not in the briefing price block — confirm the gap at the open for framing only.
• Macro backdrop: Stagflation-tilted week into the FOMC that has not crested — oil >$104 (off Thursday's ~$110 spike but still +10–13% on the week, Hormuz/Houthi supply shock), 10-yr at a 2023 high, diesel at a record $6/gal, PPI hot yesterday. Overnight Oracle (ORCL) after-close beat (+6.6% premarket) is the first relief expression of a soft-print path; the whole session's information sits in the 8:30 print.

Desk-level verdict: Neither active member can trade today — both are on a hard Tier-1 CPI skip (is_event_day() Tier-1 → no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1), identical to their prior CPI days (07-14, 08-12). The plan is filed as a pre-commitment; forecasts are honest (p_trade 0.0 both, high conviction on the no-trade), not manufactured.

MNEME — SPY, KNN (K=15, max_sim ≥ 0.50, vote ≥ 62%, long-only)

No trade expected — hard CPI skip.

The binding gate is deterministic: my runner's live event-day check (shared.event_calendar.is_event_day(), Tier-1 filter) returns True for CPI today → I log no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1 and short-circuit all window observation and signal computation before any KNN query runs. This is the same gate that produced clean no-trade rows on 07-14 and 08-12. p_trade 0.0, direction none, conviction high — this is not hedging, it is a hard, pre-registered skip. I will not manufacture a trade.

Setup present: No — structurally excluded, independent of tape quality. Even setting the gate aside, today's character is hostile to my long-only broad-index continuation: Window A's observation span (9:30–10:00) is exactly the post-print noise window, and the two-tier, yield-sensitive tape is the class I structurally struggle with (the value-led two-tier Window B whipsaw sits at N=2, 07-24 & 08-27 — a third same-shaped stop-out would clear N=3).

Sizing vs. event risk: No sizing decision applies — a hard-skip day takes no position and size is moot. My sizing is never an event-risk input; the gate, not size, is the protection today.

Key levels (observational, not tradeable): SPY prior close 757.87, prior range 756.64–760.00, SMA20 767.52, ATR14 5.34. >1.5% open gap either direction is my standing pattern-library-thin-at-extremes invalidation — but it is academic today since I will not run signals.

Invalidation of the no-trade call: If my runner logs anything other than no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1 on a CPI day, that is a pipeline/escalation datapoint (the event calendar under-scoped), not a reason to trade. The one thing worth monitoring beyond the print: today's CPI microstructure will enter my KNN candidate pool / running z-score normalization for future non-event queries (the contamination class TRACE's diagnostic measured), so a violent 09-11 anchor could steer later matches — flagged for the next reflection, not acted on today.

TRACE — DIA, KNN (K=10, max_sim ≥ 0.60, vote ≥ 62%, long-only)

No trade expected — hard CPI skip.

Same binding gate as MNEME: my runner logs no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1 via is_event_day() Tier-1 on CPI today and short-circuits before any window/signal computation. Clean no-trade rows on 07-14 and 08-12 confirm the live path. p_trade 0.0, direction none, conviction high.

Setup present: No — hard-skipped. And on my own stack's evidence the skip is genuinely protective, not foregone opportunity: my 30-day event-day deliverable (2026-07-16) showed my 21 event-day trades underperform (WR 28.6% / PF 1.37 vs. the general 46.1% / 2.21), the opposite of MNEME's read. On a CPI day my blackout is the correct call. Independently, DIA = the Dow = today's fragile value/consumer leg (10-yr at a 2023 high, oil >$104, tariff headwinds, only XOM/CVX as energy counterweight) — a long-only Dow continuation on a hot-CPI day is the wrong structure even absent the gate.

Sizing vs. event risk: No sizing decision applies — hard-skip day, no position. Size is not an event-risk input.

Key levels (observational): DIA not in the briefing price block; my recent Phase 3 band is ~$515–535 (08-27 C-fire $535.71, 09-09 C-fire $524.85). >1.5% open gap either direction is my standing invalidation, again academic today.

Invalidation of the no-trade call: A runner log other than no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1 on a CPI day is an escalation datapoint (event-calendar under-scope), not a license to trade. Two things I'll watch into the close regardless: (1) that today's CPI anchors do not quietly contaminate DIA's candidate pool for future non-event queries; (2) the 09-05 fetch_today_sip_embargo data fix is 2-for-2 live (09-08, 09-09) — I want a clean full-history read on the next live (non-skip) day to formally close the ASSAY hand-off. Neither changes today's p_trade.

Plan Filed

• Filed: 2026-09-11 04:32 PT
• Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes (mneme, trace — both p_trade 0.0, direction none, conviction high; GHOST frozen, no forecast)

No trades taken.

House Mneme Desk Reflection — 2026-09-11

Plan reference: desks/house-mneme/plans/2026-09-11-plan.md EOD briefing: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-11-eod.md

Cadence Rule Header

Weekly/same-day-on-trade cadence. Today is Friday 2026-09-11. This reflection covers the full period since the desk's last reflection (2026-09-09) per WS4d — i.e. Thu 09-10 (a LIVE, GO session, day-before-CPI de-risk) and Fri 09-11 (a CPI Tier-1 hard-skip). Neither session produced a trade, so this is the first reflection to carry both days' reads. GHOST remains frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no reflection.

What Happened

A clean $0.00 two-session stand-down period — both active members stood down on both days, both forecast the no-trade correctly, and the desk's calendar discipline was vindicated on the one genuine information day. Period P&L $0.00, 0 trades. No same-day co-fire.

Thu 09-10 (LIVE, GO — no Tier-1 today, but the literal-HIGH rule frames it as a de-risk into CPI Friday): Both members logged sub-bar knn_gate reads and correctly stood down — MNEME on the vote threshold, TRACE on the vote threshold with all similarity above floor. MNEME blocked=knn_gate A:vote=27%/62% sim=0.804/0.5 B:vote=53%/62% sim=0.530/0.5 C:vote=60%/62% sim=0.490/0.5 — the plan's handicap read (Window A compromised by the ECB 8:15 + PPI 8:30 noise morning) was confirmed: Window A cratered to 27%, the day's true regime miss. TRACE blocked=knn_gate A:vote=40%/62% sim=0.825/0.6 B:vote=30%/62% sim=0.610/0.6 C:vote=40%/62% sim=0.832/0.6 — all three windows' similarity above the 0.60 floor but every vote ≥22pp sub-bar: the setup never came close. Both forecasts clean (MNEME p_trade 0.20 → Brier 0.04; TRACE 0.25 → 0.0625).

Fri 09-11 (CPI Tier-1, firm-wide NO-GO): Both members hard-skipped — no_trade:event_day:CPI_tier1 (p_trade 0.0, direction none, conviction high both), identical to their clean prior CPI rows (07-14, 08-12). The skip was correct on the merits, not just pre-registered: the print (headline in line, core +0.3% m/m hot by a tenth) produced a gap-up-and-hold relief rally (SPY +0.83%, true range 1.52× ATR — but the gain was the open gap; flat intraday, −0.05% vs open) — precisely the tape that leaves a long-only KNN continuation with nothing clean to continue into. Brier 0.0 both.

The period's load-bearing read: this was a regime stand-down period, not a calibration period, for both members. MNEME's only near-miss (09-10 Window C) grazed both of its gates simultaneously and landed on its flagged weak window; TRACE never got within 22pp of its threshold on any window. No repeated close-miss-against-one-threshold pattern in either stack. TRACE's DEGRADED clock is unchanged at LLR −2.057 (−0.888 from DEGRADED −2.944) — no trade this period, so it neither advanced nor relieved; it stays frozen near the boundary awaiting the next qualifying trade's outcome. The 09-05 fetch_today_sip_embargo observability fix delivered a third consecutive full three-window read (09-08, 09-09, 09-10) — now 3-for-3, strengthening toward formally closing the ASSAY hand-off.

Combined desk P&L this period: $0.00 on 0 trades. Desk cumulative unchanged at 32 trades, +$679.37 (MNEME 23 / +$1,041.36; TRACE 9 / −$361.99). The desk's stand-down side remains its well-calibrated side.

Paper P&L

Combined desk P&L this period: $0.00 (0 trades) MNEME cumulative Phase 3: 23 trades, +$1,041.36 net, 47.8% WR (11W/12L), SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (LLR +3.793) TRACE cumulative Phase 3: 9 trades, −$361.99 net, 11.1% WR (1W/8L), SPRT CONTINUE (LLR −2.057, −0.888 from DEGRADED) Combined desk cumulative: 32 trades, +$679.37 net

Event Risk vs. Expectation

• Thu 09-10 (HIGH via the literal-HIGH next-day rule; no Tier-1 that day) — correct. No hard skip (CPI was tomorrow, not today; PPI is not a skip). The de-risk tape into CPI Friday landed sub-bar for both members — the "day-before-CPI de-risk + ECB/PPI noise morning" framing was accurate, and Window A cratering to 27% (MNEME) confirmed the plan's handicap read that the morning window would be the poorest library-match window of the day. Firm-wide GO honored; neither member hard-skipped.
• Fri 09-11 (HIGH, CPI same-day Tier-1) — hard skip correct. The print was the day's only true information; it resolved as a gap-up-and-hold, not a volatile print-driven tape. The standing lesson was re-confirmed in the benign direction: a KNN long-only continuation into a priced-in CPI print's gap-and-hold has no clean intraday structure to continue (the gain was the open gap, flat vs open thereafter). TRACE's own event-day deliverable (WR 28.6% vs 46.1% general) again justified the stand-down.
• Invalidations — none triggered either day. No >1.5% open gap for either member's instrument; VIX stayed LOW (~16.5 → 15.84 close Fri, never >18). Neither member's absolute stand-down condition fired on 09-10; the binding gate was the KNN vote threshold.
• Forward risk: next Tier-1 is 2026-09-16 FOMC (decision + SEP + presser, Wed 2:00 PM ET; hike pricing ~87% after today's sticky CPI — the September hike is effectively locked; the live question is one-and-done vs start-of-a-cycle). Both members will hard-skip. The weekend carries a live Hormuz/Salalah escalation clock (Iran/GCC talks Monday in Oman). Watch the 5% line on the 10-yr as the swing variable into the FOMC.

Per-Member Binding Gate Analysis

MNEME — binding gate: the vote threshold (≥62%), with Window C grazing both its gates on 09-10. REGIME — single double-graze on the flagged weak window, not a calibration pattern.

MNEME logged no_trade:knn_gate on 09-10 — a full three-window read where every window's similarity cleared or near-cleared the 0.50 floor, and only Window C approached the vote gate: A:vote=27% B:53% C:vote=60%/62% sim=0.490/0.50. The load-bearing question resolves regime:

• Window C is the near-miss — but it grazed BOTH gates simultaneously. C's vote came in at 60% vs 62% (a 2pp graze) AND its max_sim at 0.490 vs 0.50 (a 0.01 floor miss). This is the closest the stack has come to a fire this period — but it is a double-gate graze on the flagged weak window (C, holdout PF 1.25), meaning even a vote-clearing day would have been held by the similarity floor. A single occurrence (N=1 this period), on the already-flagged window — regime, not the N=3 repeated-graze-against-one-threshold pattern that would evidence calibration trouble. No unilateral tweak to locked v5 gates.
• Windows A and B are unambiguous regime. A at 27% (the plan's handicap — the morning window observing the ECB+PPI noise — confirmed), B at 53%. Neither came close.
• The Window A near-miss thread from 09-09 did NOT extend. The prior reflection watched whether Window A kept producing sub-bar-but-close reads on two-tier tape (09-08 fired-decisive-and-scratched at 80%; 09-09 grazed at 60%). On 09-10, Window A fell to 27% — a regime miss, not a graze. That thread has now produced only 1-of-3 A-window threshold grazes, well short of a pattern; monitoring continues, no action.
• SPRT unchanged, CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (LLR +3.793, 23 trades, +$1,041.36). A no-trade period changes nothing. Plan calibration healthy (p_trade 0.20 → Brier 0.04 on 09-10; 0.0 → 0.0 on 09-11).

TRACE — binding gate: the vote threshold (≥62%); all three windows' similarity above the 0.60 floor but every vote ≥22pp sub-bar on 09-10. REGIME — the setup never came close; no near-miss, no calibration evidence.

TRACE logged no_trade:knn_gate on 09-10 — A:vote=40%/62% sim=0.825/0.6, B:vote=30%/62% sim=0.610/0.6, C:vote=40%/62% sim=0.832/0.6. This is the mirror-image of 09-09: where 09-09 was a strong-fire-that-lost (vote 70%, max_sim 0.7222, stopped on the fragile-leg day), 09-10 was a clean regime stand-down — genuine similarity on all windows (A and C well above the 0.60 floor at 0.825/0.832) but a decisive-vote threshold that never came within 22pp. The setup was structurally absent, not grazed. Regime, no fix — no unilateral tweak to locked v2 gates.

• The DEGRADED clock is unchanged — frozen, not advanced, not relieved. LLR holds at −2.057, −0.888 from DEGRADED (−2.944). No qualifying fire this period, so the clock neither moved toward DEGRADED (a stop-out) nor toward recovery (a win). The pre-registered desk-PM-review-within-1-session / TEMPER-within-5 protocol remains near-activated and is the desk's live watch: the next qualifying DIA fire's outcome decides the DEGRADED path. It is explicitly not a sizing input (standard 0.75% sizing unchanged) and does not suppress or force a legitimate fire.
• Observability strengthening — 3-for-3. The 09-05 fetch_today_sip_embargo fix delivered a third consecutive full three-window read (09-08, 09-09, 09-10, all with real votes/sims and large past samples). This formally strengthens (though does not yet close) the ASSAY hand-off; it holds cleanly and closes once a further non-skip live session confirms.
• Event-day protection re-confirmed. TRACE's hard CPI skip (07-14, 08-12, now 09-11) is genuinely protective per its own 30-day event-day deliverable (WR 28.6% / PF 1.37 on event days vs 46.1% / 2.21 general) — the gap-and-hold relief tape was not a missed continuation, it was a correctly-avoided no-continuation tape.

Cross-Member Synthesis

Narrative finding — this period's stand-down was the desk's discipline paying for the 09-09 loss, not dodging anything. Both members correctly read a de-risk-into-CPI live day (09-10) as sub-bar regime and a CPI Tier-1 day (09-11) as a hard skip — and the 09-11 tape (gap-up-and-hold, flat intraday) confirmed the skip avoided precisely the no-clean-continuation structure both long-only stacks struggle with. TRACE's DEGRADED clock is the defining live item and is unchanged: it awaits the next qualifying DIA fire's outcome, which will decide whether the 09-09 strong-fire-that-stopped-out was a session-character outlier or the start of a degradation pattern. Both members behaved per design — MNEME honored its gate, TRACE honored its gate and its event-day protection. No co-fire → the pool gains no observation this period. Combined desk cumulative: 32 trades, +$679.37.

Open TEMPER Items (Carried Forward)

• TRACE — DEGRADED-clock hazard (LIVE, unchanged this period). LLR holds at −2.057, −0.888 from DEGRADED (−2.944) after the 09-09 strong-fire stop-out. No trade this period → the clock neither advanced nor relieved. The pre-registered desk-PM-review-within-1-session / TEMPER-within-5 protocol remains near-activated; the next qualifying DIA fire's outcome is the deciding event. Highest-priority live watch.
• TRACE — Window C as the weak window (flagged, holdout PF 1.25). The 09-09 stop-out was a Window C fire — the flagged window. Rolling-20 Window C PF < 1.2 suspension monitor remains open (cumulative 9 trades, below the 20-trade horizon). No Window C fire this period.
• TRACE — observability fix 3-for-3. The 09-05 fetch_today_sip_embargo fix delivered full three-window reads on 09-08, 09-09, 09-10 (large past samples). Accumulating; formally close the ASSAY hand-off once it holds across a further non-skip live session.
• TRACE — reconfirmation ledger items (SPY Calmar, random-entry control, VIX regime breakdown, event-day breakdown, KNN contamination diagnostic). Standing obligations from WS2c; all four 30-day deliverables ratified by TEMPER 2026-08-01, contamination diagnostic resolved 2026-07-16 (ROBUST). No new activity this period.
• MNEME — Window C double-graze watch (NEW, N=1). On 09-10 Window C grazed both gates simultaneously (vote 60%/62%, max_sim 0.490/0.50) on the flagged weak window. Single occurrence, not a pattern; monitoring only. If it repeats as a same-shaped C double-graze toward N=3, worth a TEMPER conversation — never a unilateral tweak.
• MNEME — Window A near-miss thread (unextended). The 09-09 watch (does A keep producing sub-bar-but-close reads on two-tier tape?) answered "no" — A fell to 27% on 09-10. 1-of-3 A-window grazes across 09-08/09/10; not a pattern. Monitoring continues, no action.
• MNEME — Window B two-tier laggard-leg whipsaw watch (N=2, unadvanced). No Window B fire this period; N stays 2.
• MNEME — Window C rolling-15-trade PF < 1.2 suspension monitor. Standing; no Window C trade this period.
• MNEME — SPRT. CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST, sticky since trade #14 (LLR +3.793, −0.849 from +2.944). No-trade period changes nothing.

Desk Summary for Orchestrator

House Mneme's 09-11 reflection (covering the 09-10 live GO + 09-11 CPI Tier-1 period since the 09-09 reflection) was a $0.00 two-session stand-down, 0 trades. MNEME (SPY, no trade both days — REGIME): 09-10 knn_gate — A 27%, B 53%, C 60%/62% vote AND max_sim 0.490/0.50, a single double-graze on the flagged weak Window C (not a calibration pattern, N=1); Window A cratering to 27% confirmed the plan's morning-noise handicap; the 09-09 A-graze thread did NOT extend. SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST (LLR +3.793, 23 trades, +$1,041.36). 09-11 hard CPI skip correct (gap-and-hold relief tape, no clean continuation). TRACE (DIA, no trade both days — REGIME): 09-10 knn_gate — A 40%, B 30%, C 40%, all three windows' similarity above the 0.60 floor but every vote ≥22pp sub-bar (setup never came close — the clean absence mirror of 09-09's strong-fire-that-lost). DEGRADED clock frozen at LLR −2.057, −0.888 from DEGRADED — pre-registered desk-PM-review/TEMPER protocol remains near-activated, awaiting the next qualifying fire's outcome. Observability fix 3-for-3 (09-08/09/10 full reads), strengthening toward closing the ASSAY hand-off. Desk calibration clean both days (Brier 0.04/0.0 MNEME, 0.0625/0.0 TRACE). Desk cumulative 32 trades, +$679.37. Next Tier-1: FOMC 2026-09-16 (~87% hike priced) — both members will hard-skip. No learnings.md flags this period (regime stand-downs; no N≥3 pattern either stack).

Reflection Filed

• Filed: 2026-09-11 (EOD reflection; covers 09-10 + 09-11 since the 09-09 reflection)
• Next session event risk: Mon Sep 14 — non-Tier-1 run-up; the pivot is FOMC Wed Sep 16 (decision + SEP + presser, ~87% Sept-hike priced). Weekend carries a live Hormuz/Salalah escalation clock (Iran/GCC talks Monday in Oman) — do not read a quiet Friday tape as a settled weekend. Watch the 5% line on the 10-yr as the swing variable into the FOMC.
• GHOST: frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no reflection written.
• MNEME and TRACE per-member compatibility files written (agents/mneme/reflections/daily_2026-09-11.md, agents/trace/reflections/daily_2026-09-11.md).
• No learnings.md flags this period — both stacks logged regime stand-downs (MNEME: single Window-C double-graze on the flagged weak window, N=1; TRACE: all votes ≥22pp sub-bar, setup never close), not calibration patterns. The desk's stand-down side remains its well-calibrated side. TRACE's DEGRADED clock stays the live watch (LLR −2.057, −0.888 from boundary).