Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-09-10-pm.md PM: Wicker (persona; own stack retired 2026-07-14 — this plan covers active members Null + Meridian only)
Setup present: POSSIBLE / moderate-probability. p_trade 0.40, direction none, conviction low. Both gates are CLEAR: no Tier-1 event today (CPI is tomorrow, so the hard skip does not close today), and no top-10 QQQ constituent earnings (ORCL/ADBE report after the close). So this is a tradeable shape-day, not an event day. A contained de-risk session is, if anything, Null-favorable: compressed ranges bias toward a small overnight gap, which is exactly his population (0.1–0.7× ATR = 0.74–5.17 pts on QQQ).
Why conviction stays low and p_trade is a mild down-tick from 09-09's 0.45: (1) The de-risk character cuts both ways. A very quiet open prints a gap below 0.1× ATR (< 0.74 pt) and the gap_ratio filter blocks outright — that is the recurring LOW-VIX-block signature (08-10 0.022, 08-14 0.084, 09-02 0.081, 09-01 0.933 oversize). A CPI-eve de-risk tape is a prime candidate for a sub-floor flat open. (2) Two prints before 8:30 compress Null's usable window — his entry window is 9:30–10:30, but the first 30 minutes are ECB/PPI noise, so a clean displacement+FVG may not form until ~10:00, truncating the window. (3) Direction is not forecastable. The standing finding holds hard: gap direction resolves at entry, and a directional lean that over-weights the geopolitical/rates leg has repeatedly degraded the plan-scoring direction axis (09-08 leaned long, QQQ gapped up; 08-31 modeled short, mean reversion went long). QQQ closed its first session under SMA20 on 09-09, but the SMA20 side is informational, not a directional arbiter (two consecutive sessions, 09-08/09-09, proved the shape gates — not trend alignment — bind for small gaps, where trend_alignment doesn't even fire below gap_ratio 0.30). So I refuse a directional lean (direction: none) and let the open resolve it.
Sizing vs event risk: standard SOP — no adjustment. 1 MNQ, 0.5% risk, one position, 11:00 hard exit; daily loss limit 1.5%. The event-risk throttle is the gate stack (gap-band 0.1–0.7× ATR, pre-market volume ≤ 2× 5-day avg, displacement/FVG quality), not a PM-sized reduction. A gap > 0.7× ATR on a PPI/rates repricing is blocked by the ceiling filter outright.
Key levels: QQQ prior close 716.35 (fill target), prior high 719.63, prior low 714.04, 20-day SMA 717.30. Gap band 0.1–0.7× ATR ≈ ±0.74 to ±5.17 pts. Entry window 9:30–10:30 ET; hard exit 11:00.
Invalidation (live today): stand down if (a) gap outside 0.1–0.7× ATR at the open (the sub-floor flat-open block is the likeliest no_trade), (b) pre-market NQ volume > 2× the 5-day avg (institutional commitment to a CPI-eve directional move), (c) no clean 1-min FVG by 10:30, or (d) the morning prints a one-way directional drive with no displacement/reversal candle — I do not force a fade into a widening de-risk drift. Mechanism-health context: SPRT CONTINUE — n=14 W13/L1, LLR +2.249 (WR 92.9%, +$1,881.59), 0.695 from the CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST boundary; the single 09-03 trend-day loss is un-clustered (N=1). The mechanism is healthy; the gates, not the desk, decide.
Setup present: UNLIKELY / low-probability. p_trade 0.12, direction short, conviction low. Event gate CLEAR (no Tier-1 today; hard skip is live but inert today). But session character is the binding blocker, and it is the same structural read as the last several sessions. Meridian is bearish-only — it fades an exhausted up-push into a prior-session high with RSI(2) ≥ 88 inside an 18–32 ADX band. TEMPER's Meridian learning (2026-06-18) applies verbatim: an upside sweep needs the tape to first rally up into the level and spike-reject; a directional context pointing away from the sweep direction warrants a low rating. Today's base case is a contained de-risk drift, with the value/consumer-Dow leg flagged fragile — the tape is more likely to move away from prior highs than to exhaust up into them. A completed sweep would require tech resilience to produce a genuine relief rally with exhaustion into QQQ 719.63 / SPY 764.45 — a conditional tail, not the base case.
Second blocker: ADX is in a volatile transition and the band is genuinely uncertain in both directions. The last two sessions showed opposite signatures — 09-08 QQQ 16.8 / IWM 17.0 under the 18 floor; 09-09 SPY 45.6 / IWM 38.7 over the 32 ceiling, with QQQ in-band at 30.0 (though its near-miss stalled +2.25 short of 721.89). A contained CPI-eve tape could settle ADX near/below the 18 floor (the recurring LOW-VIX signature: 17.9, 17.3, 17.1, 17.0, 16.8, 17.0); a PPI/ECB repricing spike could blow the 32 ceiling again. Either way the band is uncertain, which further suppresses setup likelihood. The most probable outcome is a no_trade row on adx_precheck (floor or ceiling) or no_sweep.
Sizing vs event risk: standard SOP — no adjustment. $250/leg, cap 10 MNQ / 5 MES, 2-loss daily cap, hard close 11:30 ET. Flat by default; only a clean exhaustion sweep jointly clearing the band + RSI(2) ≥ 88 + a bearish FVG triggers anything. iwm_leg n=0 (thin; treats ~56%, not 73.3%, as the honest live anchor) — not a today driver.
Key levels: QQQ prior high 719.63, SPY prior high 764.45 (the two sweep thresholds). Bearish FVG entry off the swept high's displacement candle; 2.0× 5-min ATR stop beyond the wick; 1.5R primary target (SPY stretch toward prior-session low if closer than 1.5R). ADX band 18–32.
Invalidation (live today): stand down if (a) ADX outside 18–32 at pre-session check or at signal (the likeliest block — floor or ceiling), (b) no spike-and-reject off the prior high (the contained tape never pushes up into 719.63/764.45), (c) RSI(2) < 88 at the sweep, (d) no qualifying bearish FVG within 15 min, or (e) the vol gate blocks (only if the auction resets wide). I do not short weakness — Meridian's edge is fading an exhausted up-push, and a fragile-value de-risk tape gives nothing to fade unless it first rallies. Context: SPRT CONTINUE — n=3 W2/L1, LLR +0.222; no qualifying setup since the IWM expansion; the 09-09 QQQ near-miss (+2.25 short, in-band ADX 30.0) is the carried live watch — a tape that pushes the remaining ~2 pts into the prior high with exhaustion produces its first qualifying setup.
No trades taken.