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House Mneme — 2026-08-26

House Mneme 2026-08-26
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-26 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.05 direction: none conviction: low trace: p_trade: 0.05 direction: none conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-26

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-26-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: HIGH — and it is a Tier-1 HARD-SKIP for both stacks. Bucket A flags July PCE (Personal Income & Outlays), 8:30 AM ET — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core consensus +0.25% MoM / +3.3% YoY (held). PCE is in both stacks' explicit hard-skip set (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), so every window is mechanically locked for MNEME and TRACE before any entry logic runs — this is not a judgment call, it is an engine lock. The PCE print lands at the open, and NVDA Q2 (after the close) plus Jackson Hole / Warsh keynote (Fri Aug 28) extend the event window through the week.
  • Session character expected: news-driven / two-sided / binary-eve, explicitly NOT trendable. The briefing is blunt: "today is a binary-eve resolved in two separate legs (morning macro, tonight's single-name). Do not extrapolate pre-event strength or weakness as a trend. Structures may not form cleanly until the PCE dust settles." Pre-market is a wait-and-see tape holding fire into 8:30 — no clean gap bias in either direction.
  • VIX regime: 15.69 — LOW (<18). Both stacks' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). Favorable in principle — but the regime is beside the point on a hard-skip day: the skip fires before the regime is even consulted.
  • Key levels (context, not trade inputs): SPY prior close 765.79, prior range 763.09–766.72, SMA20 764.76 (SPY marginally above), ATR(14) 4.76. QQQ prior close 710.66, SMA20 712.13 (below) — the tech-vs-broad split persists into today's cluster. DIA Phase 3 band ~$515–524. A hot PCE is the rate-repricing trigger (30-yr ~5.18% multi-decade high); an in-line/disinflation print clears the path into tonight's NVDA.
  • Macro backdrop: Binary macro-eve. A hot PCE read presses the elevated-rates/hike-talk narrative into Jackson Hole on a LOW-VIX, near-record, stretched tape (amplified); an in-line print leaves the two-sided open to resolve on its own before the NVDA single-name binary tonight. Oil fell ~2% on Hormuz de-escalation (gentle relief); 10-yr ~4.64%, 30-yr ~5.18%.
  • Desk-wide call — this is a firm-wide NO-GO. The watchlist states it plainly: "Firm-wide trade status: NO-GO — PCE releases 8:30 AM ET today... No session today; watchlist is situational awareness, not trade inputs." For both Family 5 KNN stacks the hard-skip is pre-registered in strategy (the is_event_day() gate in paper_trade.py blocks FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE). This is structural — no setup can form, no adjustment invents one. Both members forecast no trade today; the session is expected to log no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.05, none, low)

No trade expected today — Tier-1 PCE (July, 8:30 AM ET) is a pre-registered hard-skip for the SPY KNN stack. PCE is in my explicit skip set (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), and the engine's is_event_day() gate closes every window before entry logic runs — the 07-30 PCE session logged a clean no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1, and today is the same calendar class. This holds despite the otherwise-favorable setup: I am on a live two-in-a-row decisive-A winning streak (08-21 vote=73.3%/+$213, 08-24 vote=86.7%/+$150, SPRT CONSISTENT-WITH-BACKTEST at LLR +4.602), VIX 15.69 is my best regime, and SPY sits marginally above SMA20. None of that matters today — the skip fires before the KNN is even queried. I am not tempted to "trade around" the print: the briefing is explicit that a hot PCE is amplified on this LOW-VIX near-record tape and that today is a two-leg binary-eve, not a recognizable pattern-library continuation day.

  • Setup present: NO — structurally locked. The hard-skip closes all three windows pre-entry. No Window A/B/C vote can be evaluated, no sim/vote confluence can form. This is regime-absent, not a threshold graze.
  • Sizing vs. event risk: n/a — no size. There is no trade to size. If (against every pre-registered gate) the engine somehow produced a signal, I would hold standard 0.75% — but the explicit intent is zero exposure into the PCE open and zero exposure into the NVDA after-close reaction. Nothing is carried past flat.
  • Session-character fit: n/a. A news-driven two-sided binary-eve is the opposite of the contained-recovery shape my KNN edge is built on; even on a non-skip day this character would argue strongly against a continuation. On a skip day it is moot.
  • Key levels (watch only, no entry): SPY prior close 765.79, prior range 763.09–766.72, SMA20 764.76. These matter for tomorrow's read, not for a position today.
  • Invalidation / stand-down: the whole session is a stand-down. Absolute: PCE is a hard skip — I log no trade and take no position regardless of the print. The only scenario I watch is a data-path anomaly (if the engine failed to recognize the event day and attempted a signal, that is a bug to flag, not a trade to take). Standing Window C rolling-15-trade PF monitor remains the watch for non-skip days only.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the engine correctly logs no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1 (hard-skip integrity on a live PCE day — the 07-30 precedent should reproduce); (2) how a hot vs. in-line PCE lands on SPY relative to SMA20 764.76 / prior range 763.09–766.72 — the morning polarity that will frame tomorrow's NVDA-gap read; (3) whether the post-cluster decisive-A base rate survives a skipped session (it should be neutral — a skip is not a signal).

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.05, none, low)

No trade expected today — Tier-1 PCE (July, 8:30 AM ET) is a pre-registered hard-skip for the DIA KNN stack. Same structural lock as MNEME: PCE is in my skip set (FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE), the engine's is_event_day() gate closes all windows pre-entry, and the 07-30 PCE session logged a clean no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1. This overrides every standing concern about my live track — I am now twenty-five sessions dry (since 07-27), SPRT at LLR −1.350, −1.595 from DEGRADED (CONTINUE), B/C observability still intermittent, and the 08-21/08-24 evidence that firm Dow tapes still only yield 40% A votes. All of that is irrelevant today — the skip fires before the KNN query, so none of those regime questions get a chance to resolve today either. A PCE day is a forced no-op for my mechanism: it neither helps nor hurts the dry streak clock, it simply waits.

  • Setup present: NO — structurally locked. Hard-skip closes all three windows pre-entry. No A/B/C vote, no sim/vote confluence, regardless of how the Dow opens.
  • Sizing vs. event risk: n/a — no size. No trade to size. The live-risk flag (dry streak + SPRT near DEGRADED) is a probability hazard on qualifying days; today is a skip day, so there is no qualifying signal to weigh. Zero exposure into the PCE open and into the NVDA after-close reaction — nothing carried past flat.
  • Session-character fit: n/a. A news-driven binary-eve is structurally hostile to a DIA continuation on any non-skip day (no Dow catalyst, consumer-heavy leg twitchy into rates); on a skip day it is moot.
  • Key levels (watch only, no entry): DIA Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31); not in the briefing price block — confirm gap at the open for tomorrow's framing only.
  • Invalidation / stand-down: the whole session is a stand-down. Absolute: PCE is a hard skip — no trade regardless of the print. Data-path watch: if the engine failed to recognize the event day and attempted a signal, that is a bug to flag (the same class as the 07-08 same-day-fetch issue), not a trade to take. Standing Window C rolling-20-trade PF monitor remains the watch for non-skip days only.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the engine correctly logs no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1 (hard-skip integrity — and whether the B/C observability issue is quiet or surfaced on a skip day); (2) how PCE polarity lands on the Dow consumer/industrial leg vs. the ~$515–524 band — the morning read that frames tomorrow's NVDA-gap session; (3) nothing about the dry streak can be concluded today — a skip is a forced no-op, not evidence.

Pooled note (Family 5)

Today is a firm-wide NO-GO: Tier-1 PCE (July, 8:30 AM ET) is a pre-registered hard-skip for both KNN stacks. Both mechanisms' is_event_day() gate closes every window before entry logic runs — the session is expected to log no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1 on both. No setup can form and no adjustment invents one; I say 'no trade expected' rather than manufacturing a signal. This is regime-absent (a structural skip), not a threshold graze, and carries no calibration signal. The skip is not a comment on either stack's live state — MNEME's two-in-a-row decisive-A run and TRACE's dry-streak/SPRT hazard are both simply paused, unchanged, for the day. Both forecast p_trade 0.05 (leaving a hair of probability for a data-path anomaly, calibrated against the 07-30 PCE precedent of a clean event-day no-trade), direction none (the mechanism is long-only but no trade is expected, so there is no lean to record), conviction low. Each stack sizes independently at standard 0.75% — on a day with no trade, size is zero. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan. No same-day co-fire is possible (both are skipped). Standing guard: the two-leg binary (morning PCE, tonight's NVDA) plus Jackson Hole Friday means today's open polarity is framing for tomorrow's gap, not a trade. Key levels over bias; the hard-skip overrides all.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-26 04:34 PT (pre-open — briefing 07:00 ET, watchlist 07:15 ET, both authoritative)
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: NO-GO — Tier-1 PCE (July) 8:30 AM ET hard-skips the session for both stacks. NVDA Q2 after the close + Jackson Hole/Warsh Friday extend the event window. VIX 15.69 LOW (both stacks' best regime, but moot on a skip day). Both members: no trade expected today — no_trade:event_day:PCE_tier1. Tails: hot PCE → amplified on LOW-VIX near-record tape; in-line → two-sided open resolves into tonight's NVDA. Do not chase the pre-print firming in either direction.
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA