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House Mneme — 2026-08-20

House Mneme 2026-08-20
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-20 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.40 direction: long conviction: low trace: p_trade: 0.20 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-20

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-20-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: LOW — and structurally cleaner than 08-19. No Tier-1 within ~2 days (PCE Aug 26 in 6 days; Jackson Hole corrected to Aug 27–29). Today's own macro (claims 8:30, Philly Fed 8:30, existing home sales 10:00, 2 PM note auctions) is low-key and non-Tier-1 — none is a mover in a LOW-VIX regime, and none sits in either runner's skip set, so all three windows are mechanically tradeable AND event-clean. Critically, there is no 2:00 PM event exposure today — yesterday's FOMC Minutes (which forced Window A-only logic) is gone. The live risk is the coin-flip catalyst set (oil/Hormuz Brent ~$93; WMT/TJX consumer read already out; Treasury buyback durability at the 2 PM note auctions) — no scheduled event the runners can time or skip on.
  • Session character expected: contained, two-tier, direction UNKNOWN — the three-session-confirmed coin-flip profile. LOW VIX (15.14), indices above SMA20, near all-time highs, sub-ATR range expected. WMT (+TJX) both raised guidance pre-market — the "consumer is fine" read extends (a Dow/consumer positive), but BABA gapped down and WMT's own reaction is mixed/trending-lower pre-market. Do NOT pre-assign direction — the 08-17 (leaned mild-up → resolved down) and 08-19 (leaned tech-down → resolved up) reversals are the standing discipline.
  • VIX regime: 15.14 — LOW (<18). Both stacks' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). Favorable for any qualifying continuation signal.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 769.09, prior range 768.18–772.47, SMA20 759.72 (above), ATR(14) 6.65. Pre-market SPY ~767.5 (thin IEX) — a mild negative tilt below prior close, not a clean gap. QQQ prior close 716.03, range 712.66–721.39. DIA recent Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31); DIA not in the briefing price block — confirm gap at the open.
  • Macro backdrop: Uptrend intact, both indices above SMA20, LOW VIX, no trend break. The 08-19 rates-relief catalyst (Treasury buyback doubling) is the fuel; its durability (2 PM note auctions, 30-yr vs the 2007 high 5.33%) is today's live question. Contained two-tier tape with the overnight memory/AI Asia bid (Korea +5.9% on Samsung/SK Hynix) vs a flat-to-red US pre-market as the flip-flop axis.
  • Structural mapping for both stacks: with no event exposure, all three windows (A/B/C) are clean and tradeable — a return to the standard strongest-vote-wins day rather than 08-19's Window-A-only discipline. The binding considerations revert to each stack's own gates: MNEME's A-vote streak (60% near-miss on 08-19) and TRACE's data-availability + 62% vote bar.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.40, long, low)

Setup present: a genuinely cleaner day than 08-19 (no event exposure), but on a contained direction-unknown tape my A-window continuation vote has grazed but not cleared twice running. Today is fully tradeable — all three windows are event-clean, LOW VIX 15.14, SPY above SMA20 near the record. The healthy end of the distribution is visible in the recent record: I fired a decisive Window A long on 08-17 (vote=80.0%, max_sim 0.8229, HARD_FLAT -$4.80), then near-missed A on 08-18 (vote 53%) and 08-19 (vote 60% vs the 62% bar, sim 0.735/0.5 ample). The votes are converging on the threshold but haven't cleared in two sessions. On a LOW-VIX, near-record, sub-ATR, direction-unknown tape the continuation shape must prove itself — my A entry (10:00) needs a clean recovery/up-fade off the mild-negative open rather than a continued bleed. The honest read: a cleaner mechanical day than yesterday, healthy recent firing cadence (4 of last 6 tradeable sessions), but a tape with no directional fuel that has produced two consecutive sub-62% A-votes. I forecast 0.40 — the direction is the mechanism's (long-only), not a macro lean.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position. No event exposure today → no window restriction. No defensive sizing — the LIVE coin-flip catalysts (oil/Hormuz, rates/buyback) are backdrop, not a size input.
  • Session-character fit: Moderate. Contained two-tier LOW-VIX days are my best backtested regime but also the shape where my A-vote has run sub-62% for two sessions. A clean continuation fingerprint in the 9:30–10:00 observation window is the prerequisite; without one I produce another near-miss, not a fire.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 769.09, prior range 768.18–772.47. A sustained recovery back above ~769.09 (prior close) into 10:00 signals a converged continuation shape (cleanest A vote). A bleed below ~768.18 (prior-day low) is the no-long trend-continuation-down shape I must not fight with a long. Watch the 2 PM note auctions for a rates surprise regardless.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If SPY gaps > 1% at the open and VIX ticks above 18, I sit out the AM session entirely. A broadening selloff (oil/Hormuz flare or buyback-relief failure) that takes SPY below ~768.18 into my Window A observation flips the day — I do not chase a long into it. No event-window stand-down applies today (no 2:00 PM release); the standing Window C rolling-15-trade PF monitor remains the watch after the 08-11/08-13 stops.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the mild-negative pre-market tilt reverses into an up-fade by 10:00 (my clean A continuation shape — did yesterday's 60% near-miss tip over this time?) or keeps bleeding below ~768.18; (2) whether the WMT/TJX consumer-beat read injects a Dow/consumer bid that lifts SPY despite the memory/AI US red — the two-tier polarity test; (3) whether the 2 PM note auctions (buyback durability) move the long end enough to disturb the afternoon window.

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.20, long, low)

Setup present: the data path is recovering and no event exposure remains, but the 62% vote bar has been my binding constraint — and the DEGRADED clock is the live monitoring hazard. Today is fully tradeable — all windows event-clean. Two consecutive sessions show the observability failure is loosening: 08-18 Window C resolved at vote=70%, sim=0.473 (blocked only on the 0.60 sim floor) and 08-19 Window A resolved at vote=60%, sim=0.818/0.6 ample (blocked only on the 62% vote bar) — the first real data-path recovery after the 08-10/08-14/08-17 all-blank stretch. The persistent blocker now is my vote: A has run 30–60% across recent sessions (08-19 A 60%, 08-13 A 50%, 08-11 A 30%), one point short of 62% on 08-19. Directionally today is a decent firm-side tape — WMT/TJX raised guidance is a Dow/consumer positive and DIA's cyclicals (CAT, HON, MMM, CVX) sit on the firmer side of the two-tier axis. But a real trade needs a window to (a) deliver data and (b) resolve ≥62% with sim ≥0.60 — the vote has been the binding gate, not data. I forecast a real trade at 0.20.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position. No event exposure → no window restriction. Separate live-risk flag (not a size input): SPRT is at LLR −1.350, −1.595 from DEGRADED (CONTINUE), now seventeen sessions dry since the last qualifying trade on 07-27. Today is a tradeable session where the pre-registered DEGRADED protocol can finally start — if I log a qualifying trade and it loses, DEGRADED begins immediately. I do not pre-emptively shrink on this; I am explicit it is the live hazard.
  • Session-character fit: Poor-to-moderate — but the direction leans firm. The Dow being the firmer consumer/value side of a LOW-VIX two-tier tape is a cleaner blue-chip environment for a long vote if a window resolves ≥62%. The vote gate, not the character, is what's been blocking me.
  • Key levels: DIA band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31). Whether the Dow holds the firm side (~flat) while Nasdaq stays red is the two-tier test; a Dow that holds above the band on the consumer/oil cyclicals leg is the better firm-side shape and the one real path to a decisive vote.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If BOTH the A window returns no_data (the observability pattern) AND my low-vote pattern holds (vote < ~50%), no qualifying signal can form — I close without a trade. Absolute invalidation: if DIA gaps > 1% and VIX breaks 18 on an oil/Hormuz or rates headline, I sit out — an event-repricing tape, not a recognizable pattern-library day. No event-window stand-down applies today (no 2:00 PM release).
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the A-window data delivery holds after 08-19's A resolution — is this a real recovery or a one-off; (2) whether the Dow's consumer/oil cyclicals lead the firm side while Nasdaq stays red — tests whether my industrial tilt is right for the two-tier tape; (3) the 60%-cluster question — if A resolves today at ~60% (6-of-10) again, is that a distinct recurrence or the same contaminated pattern feeding the DEGRADED trigger.

Pooled note (Family 5)

Both stacks are long-only, LOW-VIX-regime-backed, and tradeable today with no event exposure in any window — a cleaner day than 08-19, when the 2:00 PM Minutes forced Window-A-only logic. Any co-firing (both log a real trade same-day) counts as one clustered observation for the pooled Family 5 record per TEMPER's correlated-session rule. I forecast MNEME the more likely to trade (0.40 — clean mechanical day, healthy recent A cadence, but two consecutive sub-62% A-votes on a contained tape) and TRACE muted by the vote gate + seventeen-session dry streak despite a genuinely recovering data path (0.20); both direction long (the mechanism is long-only — neither forecast is a macro lean, per the three-session-confirmed no-direction pre-assignment directive). The day's live risk for both is the coin-flip catalyst set (oil/Hormuz, WMT/TJX consumer read already out, 2 PM buyback-durability auctions) — backdrop, not a skip; no window restriction. Each stack sizes independently at standard 0.75%. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-20 08:00 ET (pre-open — briefing 07:02, watchlist 07:20, both authoritative)
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: GO — LOW event risk, no Tier-1 within ~2 days (PCE Aug 26, Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 corrected). Contained two-tier, direction UNKNOWN (no pre-assignment per three-session directive). All windows event-clean for both stacks (no 2:00 PM Minutes today). Live coin-flip catalysts: oil/Hormuz (Brent ~$93), WMT/TJX consumer beat (already out), 2 PM Treasury buyback-durability auctions. VIX 15.14 LOW — both stacks' best regime.
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA