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House Delta — 2026-08-20

House Delta 2026-08-20
Plan

desk: house-delta date: 2026-08-20 forecasts: delta: p_trade: 0.22 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Delta — 2026-08-20

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-20-pm.md PM: DELTA

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: LOW (briefing). No Tier-1 within ~2 days. PCE (Jul 26-08-26) and NVDA earnings are 6 days out; today is the quiet session before them. Today's own macro (claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales) is non-Tier-1 and low-key; WMT/TJX reported pre-market and both RAISED FY guidance (the "consumer is fine" read extends; BABA gapped DOWN). The live risks are the coin-flip catalysts, not the calendar: oil/Hormuz escalation (Brent ~$93) + WMT consumer read + Treasury buyback durability (30-yr at 5.19%, down from 5.33% 19-yr high; 10/30-yr auctions ~2 PM). None in DELTA's hard-skip set (FOMC decision/CPI/NFP/PCE; VIX ≥ 30) → hard-skip check CLEAR, firm-wide GO, this desk CAN trade.
  • Session character expected: LOW-VIX, near-record, sub-ATR, two-tier, direction UNKNOWN. Per the three-session-confirmed directive, do NOT pre-assign direction — the honest base case is contained, two-tier, direction unknown, with the overnight fuel the live variable. This is a materially different tape from yesterday's one-way-down AI-valuation rout.
  • VIX regime: 15.14 — LOW (<18), DELTA's best backtest regime (dev PF 2.59 in VIX < 20 vs. 1.30 in 20-30); the ≥ 30 hard-skip barrier is far away. Supportive, licenses trading.
  • Key levels (DELTA, prior 08-14 closes, last verified anchor): NVDA 225.16 → +1.5% ≈ 228.5 = clean NVDA→ASML LONG trigger; −1.5% ≈ 221.8 = disabled SHORT. AMD 514.39 → +1.5% ≈ 522.1 = AMD→TSM LONG trigger (the degraded cell); −1.5% ≈ 506.7 = disabled SHORT. Laggards ASML ~1,844 (indicative), TSM 426.35. Runner measures actual first-hour returns — authoritative; the cash open confirms where NVDA/AMD actually gap.
  • Macro backdrop: Asia is back to risk-on overnight, and it is the AI/memory complex — the exact leg that led the downside — that is leading (Nikkei +1.36%, KOSPI ~+5.9% on Samsung/SK Hynix AI revival; the mirror of Tuesday's Kioxia/SoftBank unwind). Yet US memory names are modestly red pre-market (MU ~-1.2%, WDC ~-1.9%, INTC ~-1.7%, AMD ~-1.1%, NVDA ~-0.1%). The divergence between Asia's AI bid and a flat-to-red US pre-market is the live question — it has resolved BOTH directions across the last three sessions.

PRICE-VERIFICATION LIMIT (stated per dispatch): the pm briefing (Alpaca/IEX-verified) carries none of DELTA's four instruments and no consolidated pre-market prints for them. I carry forward the last verified closes (08-14: NVDA 225.16, AMD 514.39, TSM 426.35; ASML ~1,844 indicative) as indicative anchors only — today's cash open and the runner's 09:30–09:55 measurement are the only authoritative signal inputs.

DELTA — NVDA→ASML, AMD→TSM (LONG-only, Phase 3)

Forecast: p_trade 0.22 | direction long | conviction low

Verdict: for the first time in several sessions the overnight is genuinely TWO-WAY for my complex — the mirror of yesterday. Yesterday's deep down-bias (AMD -3.44% → disabled SHORT) is gone: overnight Asia put the AI/memory complex on its back (Korea +5.9% on Samsung/SK Hynix AI revival), the exact leg I trade. That makes an UP impulse on NVDA or AMD a live, non-fade candidate today — not a contrarian dip-buy against a rout, but a real risk-on continuation IF the US open catches the Asia bid. The caveat that keeps this low-conviction: US memory names are flat-to-red pre-market (NVDA -0.1%, AMD -1.1% — both well inside ±1.5%), so the up-impulse needs to develop at the cash open and hold; it is not gifted pre-market. The divergence has flipped both ways across the last three sessions — I do not pre-assign which way it resolves.

  • Base case (sub-threshold no_signal): NVDA/AMD open flat-to-red and their first-hour |return| stays under ±1.5% (fading-bid tape) → no trade (the 07-17/07-20/08-17/08-18 pattern). Plausible — pre-market is well inside the threshold and the briefing's default is consolidation near the record.
  • Second branch (a LONG actually fires — the genuinely live branch today): for a LONG I need NVDA or AMD to clear +1.5% UP in the first hour — i.e. the US open catches Asia's AI/memory bid and the complex catches a real bid. This is more likely today than on any of the last several sessions, because the overnight is risk-on for exactly the names whose up-move I need. If it fires, the operative cell question is the same one I've been carrying: NVDA → clean cell (2W/0L) vs. AMD → degraded cell.
  • Third branch (down — disabled SHORT shadow): if the flat-to-red US pre-market wins and NVDA/AMD slide to −1.5% in the first hour, that's a disabled SHORT (structural no-trade under LONG-only), logged to the shadow book (AMD_TSM shadow n=8→n=9, or NVDA_ASML's next live disabled-SHORT datapoint). Less likely than yesterday — the overnight bid argues against a fresh down-impulse — but a real branch.

Calibration math (day-conditional): P(signal) ≈ 0.50 — semis are the live theme and the overnight risk-on flip brings real first-hour volatility to the exact complex I trade, so an impulse ≥1.5% is genuinely plausible. P(LONG | signal) ≈ 0.44 — two-way, with the Asia bid tilting up but the flat-to-red US pre-market holding it shy of a clean lean; direction genuinely unresolved. Net tradable-signal probability ≈ 0.22. Direction long by construction (LONG-only book — the only direction that counts as a real trade). Conviction low: the most probable single outcome is still a sub-threshold no_signal, and the LONG branch — if it fires — most likely hands me the chronically-degraded AMD→TSM cell unless NVDA leads.

Sizing vs. event risk: standard 0.75%, single position — no change. No same-day Tier-1 hard skip (event risk LOW; no FOMC/CPI/NFP/PCE). This is a cleaner day than yesterday: no FOMC Minutes sits inside the holding window — WMT/claims/Philly Fed all print before the 10:00 entry and are absorbed into the open; the 2 PM Treasury auction is a rates coin-flip, not a DELTA Tier-1 and not a holding-window stop-out for a semiconductor pair. Standard per-trade risk (0.75% with a 2.0×ATR stop) and hard flat at 15:30 remove all overnight. Entry selectivity is the only non-standard dimension, and it is cell-quality-driven, not event-driven: the clean NVDA→ASML cell (2W/0L live) is the only LONG I'd want at all; the degraded AMD→TSM cell (n=8, WR 25%, PF 0.191) firing on a risk-on flip would be a double-conviction-negative (lossy cell + a reversal-tape fade risk).

Key levels: NVDA +1.5% ≈ 228.5 → clean NVDA→ASML LONG (2W/0L live, the cell that makes money — the only LONG worth taking); NVDA −1.5% ≈ 221.8 → disabled SHORT (shadow). AMD +1.5% ≈ 522.1 → degraded AMD→TSM LONG (n=8, WR 25%, PF 0.191, three straight losses — the chronic loser; the least desirable entry today, doubly so on a possible fade); AMD −1.5% ≈ 506.7 → disabled SHORT (shadow). Laggard cash-open gaps are the second read: ASML (~1,844) / TSM (426.35) gapping with their leader closes the lead-lag spread (late entry); a laggard not gapping is the only genuine lead-lag shape left. But the first read is direction, and today it is genuinely two-way — the cash open and the runner's 09:30–09:55 measurement decide whether the Asia bid catches or the US red holds.

Invalidation (stand down entirely):

  • AMD and/or NVDA clears −1.5% in the first hour — disabled SHORT, not a trade; the desk is closed for the day by the LONG-only constraint (the down path is structurally untradeable).
  • SPY or QQQ cash-open gap > 1.5% in either direction — impulse absorbed before measurement; a fresh mid-session >1.5% move against the LONG direction also stands me down.
  • The Asia bid is one-way but US memory bleeds through the open with no dip-buying bid (MU/SNDK/STX fade with no catch) — the flip-flop resolves DOWN, no up-impulse forms; stand down on the LONG.
  • A WMT/TJX-driven consumer/rates reversal that breaks the whole tape — e.g. WMT's mixed reaction (slight EPS miss despite revenue beat / raised guide) deepening into a broad de-risk that takes semis down with it — the up-branch dies.
  • A further overnight-oil escalation or 30-yr yield spike (2 PM auction re-testing 5.33%) that presses the whole AI complex — no LONG, the reversal branch fades.
  • QQQ turns sharply negative in the first 30 minutes while the complex follows — down-tape confirmed, no LONG.

Information cost (documented, not acted on): if the US memory red holds and NVDA/AMD cascade to −1.5%, the disabled SHORT is logged to the shadow book (AMD_TSM n=8→n=9; NVDA_ASML n=1→n=2 if NVDA fires it) but LONG-only keeps costing information on exactly the down path this sector could still print. TEMPER's ruling is explicit and I do not recommend re-enablement — the 2026-07-15 rejection stands (NVDA→ASML short holdout 1.60 carried entirely by 2022; 2023-24 that cell is loss-making), and the "30 LONG paper trades at PF ≥ 1.5" gate is the governing path. The load-bearing continuity thread is the AMD→TSM sub-book — n=8, WR 25%, PF 0.191, three straight losses, tracking at its pre-registered kill switch; SPRT still reads CONTINUE (LLR -0.159) but trails the sub-book problem. Today's risk-on flip is the first real test of that book in the risk direction since 08-14: if AMD fires an up-LONG and loses a fourth straight on the flip tape, the standing TEMPER gate conversation's evidence strengthens materially. NVDA→ASML remains 2W/0L and is the only cell whose LONG I'd want at all today.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-20 07:33 ET (pre-open, morning dispatch)
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • Hard skip check: CLEAR (event risk LOW; no FOMC decision/CPI/NFP/PCE today; VIX 15.14 < 30) — firm-wide GO, desk CAN trade. No scheduled event sits inside the 10:00→15:30 holding window (WMT/claims/Philly Fed all pre-10:00; 2 PM Treasury auction is a rates coin-flip, not a DELTA Tier-1).
  • Price-verification limit stated: briefing carries no DELTA-instrument prices; prior 08-14 closes carried forward as indicative anchors (NVDA 225.16, AMD 514.39, TSM 426.35; ASML ~1,844) — the cash open and runner measurement are authoritative
  • Dominant input: Asia risk-on overnight with the AI/memory complex — my exact leg — leading (Korea +5.9% Samsung/SK Hynix revival), the mirror of Tuesday's unwind; but US memory names are flat-to-red pre-market. First genuinely two-way session for my complex in several days — an up-LONG is a live, non-fade candidate, though the flat-to-red US pre-market keeps sub-threshold no_signal my base case (p_trade 0.22). No holding-window event risk — cleaner than yesterday's FOMC Minutes day. Cell quality (NVDA→clean vs. AMD→degraded) stays the binding risk.
Trades

No trades taken.

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