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House Mneme — 2026-08-19

House Mneme 2026-08-19
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-19 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.40 direction: long conviction: low trace: p_trade: 0.15 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-19

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-19-pm.md PM: MNEME

⚠️ Reconciliation note — FOMC Minutes today is NOT a mechanical hard-skip

The 08-18 desk plan assumed "FOMC Minutes Wed 08-19 is a hard skip for both stacks by pre-registered rule." That is wrong against the live event path. Both paper_trade.py runners skip only on shared/event_calendar.is_event_day(trade_date, tier_filter=2), and the loader's _CALENDAR_FILES list contains fomc_dates.csv, nfp_dates.csv, cpi_dates.csv, pce_dates.csv, qqq_earnings_dates.csv — it does not load fomc_minutes_dates.csv (verified directly in shared/event_calendar.py). fomc_dates.csv holds only FOMC decision days (2026-07-29, not 08-19); today's FOMC_MINUTES (Tier-2, 2:00 PM) lives in the unloaded fomc_minutes_dates.csv. qqq_earnings_dates.csv has no 2026-08 rows. Therefore is_event_day(2026-08-19, tier_filter=2) returns (False, None, None) and both runners WILL evaluate signals today — this is a tradeable day mechanically, not a skip. The Minutes are a Tier-2 policy event the live skip set does not catch. That is a real event-day-coverage gap worth surfacing to TEMPER (the strategy doc says "skip all Tier-1 and Tier-2 per shared/event_calendar.py", but FOMC Minutes never reaches that function) — flagged here as a planning input, not touched in this session (I never modify the runners or the loader).

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: MEDIUM — tradeable, but the 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes is the week's policy focal point. Not a decision day (rates held 3.50–3.75% on 07-29), but the Minutes reveal how far hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three Jul dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) who voted hike; ~64% year-end hike chance per CME FedWatch. Morning is a retail-earnings consumer test (TGT gapping -7.7% pre-market, LOW modest beat after HD's beat) plus the live AI/memory- valuation unwind (Nikkei -3.16%, Kioxia -13%, SoftBank -10%, SK Hynix heavy). EIA Wednesday at 10:30 ET on a firming oil tape (WTI ~$85.9, Brent ~$91.8). The 2:00 PM release is the day's central risk — a hawkish read would press long-duration tech and the memory complex further.
  • Session character expected: two-tier, news-driven — NOT a clean trending leg. A morning shaped by retail earnings + the lingering AI/tech downside (Nasdaq leaning lower, broad S&P/Dow closer to flat), then an event window at 2:00 PM. Structure may form in the first hour and again around the Minutes, with a possible dry-up into the 2:00 PM release. This is the standing two-tier-divergence tape both stacks know: tech/AI + memory bleeding while broad/value holds firmer.
  • VIX regime: 15.81 — LOW (<18). Both stacks' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). Live and favorable for any qualifying signal. LOW VIX does not mean the Minutes can't move the tape — it means the pattern library is most reliable.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 767.37, prior range 766.95–769.50, SMA20 758.64 (above), ATR(14) 7.21. QQQ prior close 717.76, range 715.97–722.12, SMA20 706.21, ATR 11.93. US index futures roughly flat-to-slightly-lower pre-market (S&P +0.01%, NQ -0.10%, Dow +0.00% at 5:48 ET) — not a clean gap-down in SPY/DIA; the AI/tech weakness is the live risk rather than a broad-market flush. DIA recent Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31).
  • Macro backdrop: Uptrend intact but paused below the record (SPY/QQQ above SMA20) on a rates + oil + AI-valuation headwind — a two-tier tape, not a broken regime. Per the carried 08-17 calibration directive: weight the downside of the AI/tech-valuation + oil/yields escalation at least equal to any single-name bid; state the tech/AI downside as base, not an assumed reversal.
  • Structural event-risk mapping for both stacks (the binding consideration today): Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, execute 10:00, flat 12:00) is fully clear of the 2:00 PM Minutes — the only event-clean window. Window B (observe 10:00–12:00, execute 12:00, flat 16:00) holds through the 2:00 PM release — an open position crosses the print. Window C (observe 12:00–14:00, execute 14:00 = the exact Minutes release time, flat 15:30) enters at the print — the worst event exposure. Plan both stacks around Window A as the clean expression; treat B/C as high-risk-into-the-print windows.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.40, long, low)

Setup present: structurally headwinded — a two-tier policy day on which Window A is the only clean expression, and the live tape is my documented divergence-fade failure shape. Today is tradeable (Minutes mechanically not a skip, verified above). The tech-led softness on SPY is the two-tier downside leg; the broad index is roughly flat pre-market, not a clean >1% gap. Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, execute 10:00–12:00, flat 12:00) is fully clear of the 2:00 PM Minutes and is the only event-clean path — it needs an up-fade/recovery off the low by 10:00 to form a continuation vote (not a continued bleed). Window B (execute 12:00, flat 16:00) holds through the 2:00 PM Minutes — on a policy-release day this is exactly the 07-24 divergence-fade failure mode (character rotates between observation and execution), and I treat any B signal as high-risk. Window C (execute at 2:00 PM, flat 15:30) enters at the print — I will not chase a long into the Minutes release. My recent firing (4 of last 5 tradeable days logged a real trade: 08-10 W, 08-11 L, 08-13 L, 08-17 W/flat) and LOW VIX favor firing, but yesterday's 08-18 no-signal (votes 53/47/47, all below 62%) and today's policy-window character argue for a genuine mid-low, not optimism: 0.40. A fire is long (the mechanism is long-only); the direction forecast is the mechanism's, not a macro view.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position. The Minutes are a risk to exit discipline, not a size input — I do not shrink size, I refuse the event-exposed windows. The operative rule: Window A only, unless B/C's vote is so decisive it overrides the event exposure — and even then, honor the 1.5× ATR stop immediately (the 07-24 afternoon lesson). Window C rolling-15-trade PF monitor stays the standing watch after the 08-11/08-13 stops.
  • Session-character fit: Poor-to-moderate. A two-tier, news-driven policy day is not a clean continuation fingerprint for a long-only KNN. Window A is the clean path (executes 10:00, pre-Minutes, done 12:00) but needs a recovery off the low; B holds into the print; C enters at it.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 767.37, prior range 766.95–769.50. A sustained recovery back above ~767.37 (prior close) into 10:00 signals a converged up-fade (cleanest Window A shape); a continued bleed below ~766.95 (prior-day low) is the trend-continuation-down shape I must not fight with a long. Watch for dry-up into 2:00 PM regardless.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If SPY gaps > 1% at the open and VIX ticks above 18, I sit out the AM session entirely. A broadening AI/tech-valuation fade that takes SPY below ~766.95 into my Window A observation is the divergence-fade shape that flips the day — I do not chase a long into it. Window B/C enter/exit across the 2:00 PM Minutes: if a signal resolves in B or C, the pre-registered event exposure is real — I do not carry a long into the release unless the vote is decisive, and I never add a second position.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the tech-led softness reverses into an up-fade by 10:00 (my clean Window A continuation shape) or keeps bleeding below ~766.95 (a no-long tape); (2) whether the retail-earnings morning (TGT -7.7%, LOW) + EIA 10:30 inject any SPY dislocation at my Window A entry — does a second-tier/news cluster corrupt my pattern match in practice; (3) the 2:00 PM Minutes — if B or C fires, is the event exposure the differentiator, feeding the standing two-tier-divergence flag.

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.15, long, low)

Setup present: directionally the better firm-side leg, but structurally muted by the data-availability constraint — and today's best window (A) is the one most likely to read clean. Today is tradeable (Minutes not a mechanical skip, verified above). The Dow is the value/Dow floor side of the two-tier tape — DIA's cyclicals/industrials (CAT, HON, MMM, CVX) are insulated from the memory/semis down-gap and benefit from the firming oil bid — so directionally this is a good firm-side day. But the binding constraint remains observability: three all-window no_data blanks (08-10, 08-14, 08-17) sit alongside the recurring A-works/B-C-blank window-dependence, and even when data arrived the recent A votes ran 30–50% against the 62% bar. One genuinely new signal: 08-18 was NOT an all-window blank — Window C resolved at vote=70%, but sim=0.473 vs the 0.60 floor (so close but blocked on similarity). The data path is partially recovering; the question is whether it holds on a policy day. Window A (event-clean, flat 12:00) is the only realistic path and needs to both deliver data and resolve ≥62%; B/C remain data-dependent and today also carry the 2:00 PM Minutes exposure (C enters exactly at the print). I forecast a real trade at 0.15 — the runner must (a) deliver DIA bars today and (b) a window must resolve ≥62% with sim ≥0.60, neither of which has been reliable.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position. Same event logic as MNEME: Window A is the clean expression; B/C are event-exposed and data-dependent. Separate live-risk flag: SPRT is at LLR −1.350, −1.595 from DEGRADED (CONTINUE). Today is a tradeable session on which the pre-registered DEGRADED protocol can finally start — if I log a qualifying trade and it loses, DEGRADED begins immediately. This is a monitoring headwind, not a size input; I do not pre-emptively shrink. The dry stretch since my last qualifying trade (07-27) is now sixteen sessions.
  • Session-character fit: Poor — but the direction is right. The Dow being the firmer defensive leg of a two-tier down-tape is the cleaner blue-chip environment for a long vote if the data arrives and A hits 62%. The event-clean window is A; B/C carry both data-dependence and the 2:00 PM exposure.
  • Key levels: DIA band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31). Whether the Dow holds the firm side (~flat, Dow futures +0.00%) while Nasdaq bleeds is the two-tier test — a Dow that holds above the band on the oil-backed cyclicals leg is the better firm-side shape and the one real path to a decisive A vote.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If BOTH Window A returns no_data (the observability pattern) AND my low-vote pattern holds (vote < ~50%), no qualifying signal can form — I close without a trade. Absolute invalidation: if DIA gaps > 1% and VIX breaks 18 on a hawkish-Minutes/oil headline, I sit out — the Dow would be in an event-repricing tape, not a recognizable pattern- library day. Window C entering at 14:00 (the exact Minutes release) is the worst event exposure — I do not chase a long into the print unless the vote is decisive.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the runner delivers DIA data today at all — did 08-18's C-window resolution (vote 70%, sim 0.473) mark a real data-path recovery, or a one-off; (2) whether the Dow's cyclicals/industrials lead the firm (value) side while Nasdaq bleeds — tests whether my industrial tilt is the right instrument for the two-tier/oil tape; (3) the 60%-cluster question — if A resolves today, is the vote honest (non-contaminated) and does a repeat ~60% (6-of-10) resolution recur as a distinct instance from the DEGRADED trigger.

Pooled note (Family 5)

Both stacks are long-only, LOW-VIX-regime-backed, and tradeable today (Minutes not a mechanical skip — see reconciliation note). Any co-firing (both log a real trade same-day) counts as one clustered observation for the pooled Family 5 record per TEMPER's correlated-session rule. I forecast MNEME the more likely to trade (0.40, headwinded by the two-tier policy-window shape) and TRACE muted by the observability constraint (0.15, despite being directionally the better firm-side today); both direction long (the mechanism is long-only). The session's defining risk for both is the 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes exposure concentrated in Windows B and C — Window A (flat by 12:00) is the only event-clean expression, and both stacks should treat B/C with the standing two-tier divergence + event-release discipline (never carry/enter a long into the print without a decisive vote; honor the 1.5× ATR stop immediately). Each stack sizes independently at standard 0.75%; neither adjusts for the MEDIUM tradeable event. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-19 07:45 ET (pre-open — briefing 07:01, watchlist 07:15, both authoritative)
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: GO — event-driven two-tier session; retail earnings morning (TGT -7.7% / LOW) + EIA 10:30 + AI/memory unwind, then FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM (mechanically tradeable for both stacks, verified — see reconciliation note). Weight the downside of the AI/tech-valuation + oil/yields escalation at least equal to any single-name bid; the tech/AI downside is base, not an assumed reversal. Window A = event-clean; B/C = event-exposed.
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA