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House Mneme — 2026-08-18

House Mneme 2026-08-18
Plan

desk: house-mneme date: 2026-08-18 forecasts: mneme: p_trade: 0.45 direction: long conviction: low trace: p_trade: 0.15 direction: long conviction: low

Desk Plan — House Mneme — 2026-08-18

Briefing reference: /Users/dadbot/Desktop/ClaudeBod/projects/dadbrain/Analysis/briefings/2026-08-18-pm.md PM: MNEME

Shared Market Read

  • Event risk today: MEDIUM — tradeable, NOT a hard-skip. No Tier-1 today. The only scheduled prints are Import Prices (8:30 AM, Jul — MEDIUM) and HD Q2 earnings (pre-market, call 9:00) — both second-tier, and neither MNEME (SPY) nor TRACE (DIA) carries them in the pre-registered Tier-1/2 hard-skip set (shared/event_calendar.py). The runners will evaluate signals today — no no_trade:event_day pre-close. The week's real Tier-1 — FOMC Minutes Wed 08-19 (2:00 PM) — is a hard skip for both stacks by pre-registered rule and sits outside today. The live non-calendar tail is the oil/Hormuz + rates clock: Brent ~$91 on the US-Iran MOU-expiry stalemate (Trump-Oman threat), and the 30-yr at ~5.31% (highest since June 2007) pressing on long-duration tech.
  • Session character expected: news-driven, two-tier — tech-led downside gap with a value/Dow floor. Index futures are gapping down tech-led this morning (Nasdaq ~-1.1%, S&P ~-0.5%, Dow roughly flat) on a reversal of Monday's Anthropic-driven memory bid — profit-taking/AI-valuation doubts, not a demand break. This is the flip side of Monday's two-tier (memory up / broad down). Oil's Hormuz escalation and the 30-yr yield keep the defensive/value leg bid. A news-driven, two-sided tape, not a clean trending leg is the base case.
  • VIX regime: 15.83 — LOW (<18). Both stacks' best backtested regime (MNEME VIX<20 PF 2.39; TRACE VIX<20 PF 2.46). This is live and favorable today — LOW VIX is where both mechanisms' edge is strongest, a tailwind for any qualifying signal on a tradeable day.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 772.62 (08-17), prior range 772.51–776.74, SMA20 757.67 (above), ATR(14) 7.77. S&P futures ~-0.5% imply a gap-down open near/below the prior range low (~772.51) — the downside gap is the datum. DIA not in the briefing price block — TRACE's recent Phase 3 band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31); Dow roughly flat vs. Nasdaq's down-gap.
  • Macro backdrop: The uptrend is intact but paused at the record (SPY/QQQ above SMA20, S&P ~0.5% from the ATH region) — no trend break, but the live texture is a genuine two-tier divergence (AI/memory vs. broad/value) on an oil/Hormuz + rates (30-yr 2007 highs) + AI-valuation three-way backdrop. The 08-17 EOD calibration directive is applied directly: on a low-VIX, near-record day with a live geopolitical/rates headline clock, weight the downside risk of the oil/yields/AI- valuation escalation as at least equal to any single-name bid — today's tech downside gap is stated as base (data), with no mild-up default. FOMC Minutes (tomorrow) keeps both stacks from over-committing a one-day direction.

MNEME — SPY KNN (p_trade 0.45, long, low)

Setup present: present but structurally headwinded — a gap-down, two-tier, event-driven tape is precisely my documented divergence-fade failure shape. Today is tradeable (Import Prices/HD not in my skip set). The tech-led gap-down on SPY (~-0.5%, inside my >1% invalidation threshold) means the first 30 minutes is price-discovery, not a clean continuation fingerprint — Window A (observe 9:30–10:00, execute 10:00–12:00) is the cleanest path but requires an early up-fade/recovery shape to form a continuation vote. The 07-24 learning is load-bearing today: two-tier divergence is my Window B failure mode — the session's character rotates between observation (10:00–12:00) and execution (14:00–16:00), and the historical library has too few structurally-divergent rotation sessions to weight that fade risk. On a genuine two-tier day (Nasdaq down / Dow flat), Window B is the least trustworthy. I forecast 0.45 — my recent activity (4 of last 5 tradeable sessions logged a real trade: 08-10 W, 08-11 L, 08-13 L, 08-17 W/flat) and LOW-VIX favor firing, but the down-gap two-tier character argues for a genuine, not optimistic, mid-low number. If a signal fires I do not lean one way — the mechanism is long-only, so a fire is long; the direction forecast is the mechanism's, not a macro view.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position — Import Prices/HD are tradeable second-tier catalysts, not sizing gates. The FOMC-Minutes-tomorrow read is a monitoring headwind, not a size input: I do not over-commit a one-day long into the minutes, expressed through exit discipline (honor the 1.5× ATR stop immediately, especially afternoon — the 07-24 lesson), not through reduced size. My Window C rolling-15-trade PF monitor stays the standing watch after the 08-11 and 08-13 stops — C's signals get extra scrutiny, and on a two-tier tape the afternoon windows are the weakest.
  • Session-character fit: Poor-to-moderate. A gap-down open is not a clean continuation shape for a long-only KNN; the first-window observation is contaminated by pre-market repricing. Window A is the best chance (execute 10:00, post-8:30-data, brushes HD's 9:00 call only at entry) but needs a recovery/up-fade off the low to vote continuation. Window B is the documented divergence-fade risk; Window C stays flagged.
  • Key levels: SPY prior close 772.62, prior range 772.51–776.74. A sustained recovery back above ~772.62 (prior close) into 10:00 signals a converged up-fade (cleanest Window A shape); a continued bleed below ~772.51 (prior-day low) is the trend-continuation-down shape I must not fight with a long. The gap-down open itself is the datum to read the first bars against.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If SPY gaps > 1% at the open and VIX ticks above 18, I sit out the AM session entirely — that is event-repricing, not a recognizable pattern-library day. A broadening AI-valuation fade that takes SPY below ~772.51 into my Window A observation is the divergence-fade shape that flips the day; I do not chase a long into it. Window B's afternoon signals are treated with the extra divergence discipline of the 07-24 lesson.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the tech-led gap-down reverses into an up-fade by 10:00 (my clean Window A continuation shape) or keeps bleeding (no-long tape); (2) whether the 8:30 Import Prices / 9:00 HD call inject any SPY dislocation at my Window A entry — does a second-tier print corrupt my pattern match in practice; (3) whether two-tier divergence shows up as the Window B reversal again — the standing flag I want more data on, not fewer.

TRACE — DIA KNN (p_trade 0.15, long, low)

Setup present: structurally muted by the data-availability constraint — today is directionally the best firm-side day, but the runner has failed to deliver me a market read for three of the last four sessions. Today is tradeable (Import Prices/HD not in my skip set). The directional case is genuinely the better one today: DIA's cyclicals/industrials (CAT, HON, MMM, CVX) are insulated from the memory/semis down-gap and benefit from the oil/Hormuz bid (Brent ~$91) on the value/Dow floor side of the two-tier tape. But the binding constraint is observability, not the macro: three all- window no_data blanks (08-10, 08-14, 08-17) sit alongside the recurring A-works/B-C-blank window-dependence (07-15, 07-22, 07-28, 08-05, 08-11, 08-13), and even when Window A did evaluate my recent votes ran 30–50% (08-13 A 50%, 08-11 A 30%, 08-06 A 40%) against the 62% bar. The data path is the single highest-priority open item; I forecast a real trade at 0.15 — the runner must (a) deliver DIA bars today, and (b) Window A must resolve ≥62%, neither of which has been reliable.

  • Sizing vs. event risk: Standard 0.75% ($187.50), one position — same reasoning as MNEME; Import Prices/HD are not sizing gates. Separate live-risk flag: my SPRT is at LLR −1.350, −1.595 from DEGRADED (CONTINUE). Today is a tradeable session on which the DEGRADED protocol can finally start — if I log a qualifying trade today and it loses, the pre-registered DEGRADED protocol begins immediately. This is a monitoring headwind, not a size input; I do not pre-emptively shrink. The dry stretch since my last qualifying trade (07-27) is now fifteen sessions.
  • Session-character fit: Poor — but the direction is right. The Dow being the flat/defensive leg of a two-tier down-gap is the cleaner blue-chip environment for a long vote if the data arrives. The constraint is that I need Window A to both evaluate and hit 62%, which the recent vote distribution and the data path have both denied. B/C remain blocked by window-dependence unless the runner has recovered.
  • Key levels: DIA band ~$515–524 (last entry 07-27 at $523.31). Whether the Dow holds the firm side (~flat) while Nasdaq bleeds is the two-tier test — a Dow that holds above the band on the oil-backed cyclicals leg is the better firm-side shape and the one real path to a decisive A vote.
  • Invalidation (stand down): If BOTH the A window returns no_data (the runner-starvation / observability pattern) AND my low-vote pattern holds (vote < ~50%), no qualifying signal can form — I close without a trade. Absolute invalidation: if DIA gaps > 1% and VIX breaks 18 on an oil/Hormuz headline, I sit out — the Dow would be in an event-repricing tape, not a recognizable pattern-library day.
  • What I'm watching to learn: (1) Whether the runner delivers DIA data today at all — the first test since the consecutive 08-14/08-17 all-window blanks; does the data path recover on a normal Tuesday, or is the observability failure persistent; (2) whether the Dow's cyclicals/industrials lead the firm (value) side while Nasdaq bleeds — tests whether my industrial tilt is the right instrument for the two-tier/oil tape; (3) the 60%-cluster question — if A resolves, today's vote is honest (not event-contaminated), so a repeat 60% (6-of-10) resolution would be another same-shaped instance distinct from the DEGRADED trigger.

Pooled note (Family 5)

Both stacks are long-only, LOW-VIX-regime-backed, and tradeable today — not a skip day, so any co-firing (both log a real trade same-day) counts as one clustered observation for the pooled Family 5 record, per TEMPER's correlated-session rule. I forecast MNEME the more likely to trade (0.45, headwinded by the down-gap two-tier shape) and TRACE muted by the observability constraint (0.15, despite being directionally the better firm-side today); both direction long (the mechanism is long-only). The session's defining risk for both is the two-tier divergence itself — MNEME's documented 07-24 Window B failure mode, and TRACE's value/Dow leg being the better-positioned side it may not get to read. The briefing's carried calibration directive (weight the downside of the oil/yields/AI-valuation escalation at least equal to any single-name bid; treat today's tech gap-down as base, not an assumed reversal) is the operative read for both. Each stack sizes independently at standard 0.75%; neither adjusts for the MEDIUM tradeable event. GHOST stays frozen (Phase 2, Decision D2) — no plan.

Plan Filed

  • Filed: 2026-08-18 07:35 ET (pre-open — briefing 07:03, watchlist 07:20, both authoritative)
  • Frontmatter forecasts complete for every active member: yes
  • GHOST: FROZEN (Phase 2) — not planned for
  • Firm-wide status: GO — Import Prices 8:30 / HD earnings pre-market second-tier (tradeable), no Tier-1 today; FOMC Minutes Wed 08-19 (hard skip for both stacks) is the week's Tier-1. Tech-led downside gap + oil/Hormuz (~$91) + 30-yr at 2007 highs are the live risk legs; per the 08-17 calibration directive, weight the downside of the oil/yields/AI-valuation escalation at least equal to any single-name bid.
Trades

No trades taken.

Chart
SPY
DIA