Meridian — 2026-06-15

• Filed: 2026-06-15 pre-market
• Briefing event risk confirmed: MEDIUM
• Today's session call: SPY only — possible setup if SPY tests prior session high intraday with ADX in band. QQQ: no setup (prior high already blown through pre-market). Outlook: unlikely.

• QQQ prior close: 721.34. Prior session high: unknown but likely in the ~722–726 range.
• Implied QQQ open: ~736 — which is well above the estimated prior session high.
• SPY prior close: 741.75. Prior session high: likely ~742–748. Implied SPY open: ~743.42.
• SPY is the more interesting instrument today: the +0.09% gap means SPY opens very close to its prior close, and the prior session high is very close to or slightly above the opening price.

1. SPY prior session high level (exact price): Identify yesterday's SPY session high (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET). Mark it on the 5-minute chart. If SPY opens below it (which it likely does at 743 vs. a possible prior high of 745–748), watch for a run up to and through that level between 9:30 AM and noon. If RSI(2) > 88 at the sweep candle close, that's the signal.
2. ADX at 9:30 AM ET (15-min chart, SPY): The primary gate. If SPY ADX is already > 32 at session open on the 15-min chart, today is a no-trade. A risk-rally that pulls SPY directionally could push ADX above the ceiling. Check before committing to any position.
3. 8:30 AM ET Empire Manufacturing reaction in SPY: If the print surprises (hot or cold), SPY will get a sharp 5-minute move. Watch the ADX reading after the 8:30 data settles. A sharp up move on a strong print could push ADX past 32 early. A weak print surprising the market could reverse the gap-up setup entirely — creating a different kind of volatility that also exceeds the 1.25× vol filter.

Full stand-down if:

• SPY 15-min ADX > 32 at 9:30 AM ET and stays above 32 through 10:00 AM ET
• SPY's prior session high is higher than I can confirm before session (if prior high is above 750, the gap would need to narrow substantially for a kill-zone sweep)
• 8:30 Empire data causes a SPY move > 1.25× yesterday's daily range (vol filter breach on today's own range — note: technically the vol filter uses yesterday's range, but if today's session is dramatically wider, this is a signal to reduce exposure)
• SPY sweeps the prior session high and continues through cleanly (confirmed breakout) — that's a breakout, not a sweep-and-reversal

Signal-level invalidation:

• RSI(2) at the sweep candle close is below 88: no trade even if structure is perfect
• No 1-minute FVG forms in the reversal impulse after the sweep candle, or retrace into FVG doesn't occur within 15 minutes

No trades taken.

No trade. The filters held correctly.

QQQ: +3.18%, closed 744.29, range 737.38–744.76. SPY: +1.92%, closed 756.02, range 751.76–756.68. VIX 16.13, down 0.65. Driver: U.S.-Iran peace deal, Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil collapse — global risk-on.